November 2007, the Amazon’s Kindle is born, rivers of ink flow — electronic and conventional. Today, the riverbed is dry: a Google look at “Kindle sales” shows no new stories since January, highly unusual. Amazon itself has gone quiet and doesn’t brag about Kindle sales.

What is the problem: the e-book reader concept, or the execution, the Amazon Kindle?

My opinion: the flaws in the Amazon execution mask the problem in the concept of a specialized e-book reader. All factors peeled apart , I think of the e-book reader as a feature of smartphones and ultra-mobile PC — as it already is on personal computers.

Why?
Sony has been making e-readers for more than 15 years now, one commercial failure after another.

Amazon comes to the scene with strong advantages: The on-line book seller, a strong customer service reputation. Kindle is a wireless device, independent of a PC.Sony requires a PC to download the ebook, and a cable to move it to your eReader. Amazon has the most titles, more than 100,000. You walk down the street, search a title, click, you turn the street corner, bing, avoid the lamppost, and the ebook came through the wireless (Sprint) network, no connection fee. Speaking of the street, the display technology (shared with Sony) allows reading outdoors as well indoors.

The bad news start with the high price: $399. How come Amazon doesn’t follow the classical model: inexpensive razors and high-margin razor blades, like HP with its inkjet printers and cartridges? $399 is the price of a smartphone or an eeePC, the Kindle-size UMPC. Then we have the gazillions of free e-books available for download on smartphone or browsers. Or I can buy books e-books for smartphones, including my Blackberry. Surprise, one source is Mobitext, an Amazon company… Next, Kindle’s design: the clumsy suede cover, the keys, the user interface all have a “Made In Seattle” feel, say Silicon Valley critics. Microsoft and Amazon live there. But Valley wags are wrong, the Kindle was designed in Cupertino, Apple’s hometown. Neighbourliness is no holiness…

So…Consumers are either cats or dogs. The cat disdainfully tiptoes around the new cat food and, after trying your patience, may condescend to sample it. Dogs joyously stick their nose into the new and improved chow. But does the dog come back the next day? This dog isn’t going back to the Kindle. After reading a three books, Le Monde and the NY Times for two weeks, uploading a Word book manuscript, I stopped using my Kindle.

Back to the question: what’s wrong, idea or execution?

This dog doesn’t mind reading mail, news and blogs on two smartphones: Blackberry and iPhone, this after years of Psion and Palm. I used to religiously read four newspapers everyday, much less now, also because of my laptop. I still love books, they’re here for a long, long time but they no longer hold the same place in our hearts, minds and… wallets.
This said, Amazon can come back with a more elegant, colorful and less expensive Kindle. More likely, the iPhone and its competitors will include e-readers and offer several screen sizes. In other words, smartphones and pocketable tablet computers (UMPC) will dominate e-book reading.
-JLG

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