by Jean-Louis Gassée
Who will buy Palm?
If you’re in a hurry: no one.
If you have more time, here is the sad story: in one day, this past Friday March 19th, Palm shares collapsed, -29% in one Nasdaq session, closing at $4. The obvious question is why? But a second query immediately comes up: why $4, why not zero?
For months, the Wall Street “sentiment” — I didn’t know there was such a thing there — let’s say the calculation was this: ‘Sure, Palm’s cooked but one of the Big Players will buy it.’
By “cooked” the haruspices meant Palm had no future as an independent company.
Why?
You’ll recall the sky-high expectations raised by its main investor, Roger McNamee, from Elevation Partners, a private equity firm. (Since October 2007, Elevation Partners has invested $460M, 25% of its $1.9B fund in Palm, for 30% of the company.)
In March 2009, Roger claimed the just announced Palm Pre would cause iPhone users to switch smartphones: “June 29, 2009, is the two-year anniversary of the first shipment of the iPhone. Not one of those people will still be using an iPhone a month later. Think about it — if you bought the first iPhone, you bought it because you wanted the coolest product on the market. Your two-year contract has just expired. Look around. Tell me what they’re going to buy.”
Palm quickly disowned such statements, but the damage was done, lofty, out-of-reach expectations were set.
Apple said little but announced a new iPhone model and lowered prices to $99 for the older model in June 2009, just one week after the Pre shipped. Worse, Palm’s “savior” and “iPhone killer” smartphone suffered from a lethal combination of self-inflicted problems: ingenious but clunky hardware implementation, promising but buggy software, restricted SDK (software tools for applications developers) availability and sophomoric cat-and-mouse games with Apple over iTunes synchronization, to name but a few.
Most of the saga is documented, or opinionated here at Endgadget, one of the more “animated” high-tech blogs.
Now, Palm’s CEO, Jon Rubinstein (a.k.a. Ruby) offers his own if-only-coulda-shoulda-woulda explanation: according to him, bad luck struck Palm when Verizon launched Motorola’s Droid two months before shipping Palm’s Pre. This type of lame explanation is embarrassing. Jon always knew Verizon to be a better channel than Sprint, 91 million subscribers for Verizon vs. 48 million for Sprint. What very probably happened is this: initially believing his own propaganda, Ruby didn’t want to yield to Verizon’s demands. Palm’s CEO bet a successful launch with Sprint would cause the bigger carrier to come around — only to take a less advantageous deal later and too late. By then, everyone knew about the Pre’s tepid reception at Sprint, taking any leverage away from Palm in discussions with other carriers.
It gets worse. Behind the scenes, Palm engaged in a classical desperation move: stuffing the channel. The expression means force-feeding your distribution network, shipping more inventory than needed. The hope is distributors will work harder, stimulated by price concessions or other marketing incentives. But, if the channels barf, the desperation move turns lethal.
With this in mind, we turn to Palm’s latest quarterly numbers released March 18th, 2010: 960,000 units shipped but… only 408,000 “sold-through”. The latter terms refers to units actually sold to paying customers, as opposed to the 960,000 shipped to distribution channels such as Verizon and Sprint. That’s what we mean by stuffing the channel.
Unfortunately, the situation turns out to be even worse than suggested by the 552,000 difference between units shipped and sold through. One analyst, Morgan Stanley’s Ehud Geldblum, looked at earlier quarterly numbers and pegs the total unsold inventory at 1.15 million units. That’s half a year of sales – if things go well. If sales tank because consumers lose faith, or because competitors do a good job, or if you need to introduce a new model that obsoletes the aging inventory, the channels backfires. Backfiring, or barfing, those are terms of art, refers to the return clause in many distribution agreements. Said clause gives resellers the right to ship inventory back for credit. This forces the seller, Palm, to deeply discount, to take a loss on the excess inventory in order to clear shelves.
Going back to Palm’s latest numbers we just looked at, on page 8, you might see the approximately $580M of cash (and short-term investments, quasi-cash) Palm often cites as their war chest, as their means to keep working hard and, ultimately, turn the situation around.
This is, to put it politely, a little incomplete.
The company took equity money against from investors such as Elevation Partners as well as widows and orphans (and, soon, their attorneys), this through two 2009 secondary offerings, in March and September 2009. These offerings could come back and haunt Elevation Partners as the fund “unloaded” shares in both cases. They might face the canonical ‘What did you know and when did you know it?’ from unhappy shareholders thinking Elevation knew about Palm’s trouble but forgot to tell investors.
Palm also borrowed. Under various forms, see the same page 8 again, I’m simplifying a bit without distorting the overall picture, the amount of money the company owes is higher than the sum of its cash plus what others (customers) owe it.
(At the risk of becoming even more abstruse, debt often comes with conditions called “covenants”. The lender agrees to repayment in 2012 but… if the company fails to meet conditions such as revenue growth or a safe enough cash position, the debt becomes exigible right away. Why? Because lenders would rather intervene before it’s too late, they’d rather jump in and force repayment, or take the company over, or force liquidation before everything is gone. Something like this could lurk in Palm’s future if lenders get nervous. IMHO, they should.)
If you believe Peter Misek, an analyst at Canaccord Adams, all this says the company is worth $0 per share.
Does this mean the company is bankrupt? No, because some of the debt isn’t “current”, meaning Palm doesn’t have to pay it right this minute. In theory, there is time to raise more money from investors or to sell the company and use the proceeds to repay the lenders.
Which gets us back to today’s question: who would buy Palm?
Or, more to the point: why, what for?
The cash versus debt situation isn’t new. Wall Street spreadsheet jockeys have known about those numbers for several quarters; their research also told them what the sell-through situation was. Still, Palm’s market cap (the total value of its shares on the Nasdaq) stayed around $1B. Today, after the 29% fall, Palm still seems “worth” about $670M.
Why?
Because someone might buy Palm for more than its “book value”, the accounting number. That’s the speculators‘ bet.
I think that theory will be disproved. (And I’ll quickly add I don’t play the stock market, I don’t own stock or options closely or even remotely related to Palm or its competitors.)
The most commonly cited asset is “the brand”. Smartphones no longer are the next big thing, they are today’s BFD. As a result, a late entrant into the market might want to dress a lesser known product with a brand consumers could relate to.
But isn’t this what the Elevation Partners team bet on? They took control of Palm, brought in new money, ditched the old management and the old product, the Treo, put in new team and new technology in play. And ended up with today’s situation: no money and a shot brand.
The other asset would be the product. Much has been said of Palm’s rebirth through its new operating system, the WebOS. The problem with that line of thinking is the market has spoken, the product hasn’t done well against its competition: Android, free and rising, muscular players such as RIM (Blackberry), Nokia, Microsoft, perhaps, and Apple. Who, in their right mind, would want to buy into the smartphone OS race now?
I’m afraid Palm will be twisting in the wind for a short while and then call it a day. A sad ending for the company that once led the Personal Digital Assistant (PDA) world and then made substantial inroads into the nascent smartphone industry with its Treo.
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126 Comments
Posts like this might normally be useful. However, much of the rhetoric being written for some reason focus primarily on comments made by investors or CEOs, not on the usefulness of the product. Why is that? Sour grapes because you also left Apple and started an ill-fated OS company, Jean-Louis? How’s that Be OS thing workin’ out for ya’? I just discovered a new feature in my WebOS–live video editing and uploads to FB, MMS, YT and email. Actually pretty cool stuff. Yes, Palm has mis-marketed the platform/product, and another idiot/expert pundit announces the death of Palm. However, it is still a supremely well-designed platform and the best UE in mobile. Publishing stuff like this offers no value. I still don’t know why I read crap like this. Give us something with some insightful thought and a modicum of value. You are much too smart and accomplished to publish crap like this. Did your grandkid write this because he/she just LOVES the iPhone? By the way, does your iPhone make and keep a call in SF yet? No? Hmmm, one dropped call on my Pre/Sprint in 10 months. Not a bad track record if you ask me.
Peter: In the end, it doesn’t matter how good a product you have, if no one is buying it, and put lightly, the Pre didn’t succeed.
I believe that Palm will be bought out, either by Google or by Apple. Not for their brand nor their product, as neither Google nor Apple needs that, but for their patents. Because Palm was a pioneer in the PDA market, they have a lot of PDA related patents, which also apply to smartphones.
Either that, or they’ll go the way of SCO and become a patent troll.
I can’t believe JLG, who helped make Apple Computer, as it’s CEO, nearly in the same position Palm is now in the ’90s, is criticizing the mis-managment of a company. Takes one to know one I guess.
I don’t think name calling and personal attacks shed light on the situation.
Just look at the numbers. Including the negative shareholders equity on the financials I quoted in the piece. Shareholders equity equals the company’s assets minus its liabilities. In this case, the neg number means the company owes more money than it has. In real estate terms, it’s under water. That’s why some Wall Street analysts think the stock is worh $0. Others think differently because a) Elevation might refinance the company believing it’ll turn around eventually or, b) someone will pay for more than the current negative value, perhaps because of the patent portfolio, as Magnus suggests.
I have been an enthusiastic Palm user of many years, it gives me no pleasure to see how Palm went from the leader of the PDA.
I bought a Palm Pre last September and a Droid last December.
Ploni: I know we shouldn’t let the facts cloud a good discussion. But… I left Apple in 1990 and was never its CEO. Please direct your comments to the 3 CEOs who followed before Steve Jobs came back in 1997 and rebooted Apple, gave it the fabulous second life we all (well, not all but many) enjoy.
Google will buy them.
I wrote about this a month ago before the quarter’s numbers were announced but I explain why Palm failed in a personal story and my belief of who would have interest in acquiring them. http://www.techyell.com/2010/02/how-to-read-palm-windows-phone-future-pre/
Palm should have looked at overseas markets as well.
Here in India, a very small miniscule of mobile users got iPhone partly coz its price is beyond belief!
And there are quite a number of people using Palm and many many of us still use or remember using Palm handhelds!
They concentrated on the US where the iphone is running amok and I hate to see palm going down.
If they can re-route all that inventory to India, tie up with a major distributor and make the price attractive, I am sure Palm can live another day to take on the iphone.
Seriously!
Manielse’s comment above links to his techyell.com blog, well worth reading for an inside look into Palm’s recent years.
Hello Jean-Louis — hope things are well. I do agree with you that Palm probably will not make it as an independent going concern. WebOS is nice, but it is an oddity that cannot gain critical mass — it will never become a meme, like iPhone, or even a semi-meme like Android.
I do agree with Magnus about the patents, though. They have a killer portfolio. Perhaps Google could buy Palm for pocket change, then loan some of Palm’s patents to HTC: that would be a formidable counterattack against Apple…
Rurik
Apple, Google or Microsoft are the most likely purchasers of Palm, and for only one reason — patents. I haven’t looked at Palm’s portfolio, but like Microsoft’s chief IP lawyer points out, the recent Apple vs. HTC lawsuit this is beginning of a complex battle to sort out who owns the IP rights to smartphone technology.
Link here:
http://microsoftontheissues.com/cs/blogs/mscorp/archive/2010/03/16/apple-v-htc-a-step-along-the-path-of-addressing-ip-rights-in-smartphones.aspx
I have to agree on the patent approach to any acquisition. I cannot tell you how many times I have run headlong into their IP portfolio. Like any great company, they patent far more than they develop, and there is plenty of gold in that vein.
Well Radio Shack and Palm are off loading Pre’s at firesale prices — free for new users. Seemed like the ideal time to switch from my not-smart phone. The Radio Shack’s I went to were all out of the phone. So perhaps flooding the market will work. (I bought mine for $80.) Android phones are too confusing to me. All the OSes look different. And each phone company is implementing differently. That doesn’t make sense to me. iPhone is lovely, b but the cost of switching two phones to AT&T seems ridiculously expensive.
And already the Pre community is impressing me with its help and support. These users are dedicated. I like that. Let’s hope the company holds on and the OS survives.
Why would Apple, Google, or Microsoft buy Palm?
Palm has two assets: A fairly decent mobile OS and two shipping FCC approved products. Apple already has an OS and shipping products that are actually a bit more successful in the market place. Patent wise, I bet Apple has all the patents they need. There is nothing in the original Palm OS IP wise that would affect the iPhone.
Google already has enough problems with Android. Android has angered Apple and Google’s mismanagement of Android (too many releases too quickly, working closely with one partner to the detriment of the other partners, etc.) has made many of their business partners looking lustfully at Windows 7. Heck, Google didn’t even get the one things they wanted out of Android: Guaranteed access to Google’s based webapps. AT&T took Android, removed Google search, added Bing search, and replaced most of Google’s default apps with their own. You know Verizon is going to be following suit.
So, the last thing Google needs is an actual hardware company with a competing OS. That would completely destroy the Android alliance. All of the partners will abandon Android and switch all of their development to Windows 7 Phone. You can’t partner with a company that is actively competing against you.
Microsoft could have been a Palm buyer. They bought Danger. However, WebOS is Linux based and doesn’t fit in with the rest of Microsoft’s products. Microsoft depends upon the integration between all of its Windows based products. As we have seen, Microsoft would rather spend billions to create Windows 7 Phone.
If someone is going to buy Palm, it’ll be a company with no third party commitments, but wants to be in the mobile business game. In the computer hardware field, I’d nominate Dell and HP. Dell is definitely interested in the mobile arena and HP claims it is. However, neither has much of a presence. By buying Palm, they would get WebOS and two already shipping and approved products. Maybe their cash and marketing connections might turn Palm around.
In the phone side, you have Sony Ericsson which desperately needs a new product, LC which is working with Meebo, and Samsung with Bada. LC and Samsung are more interested in an independent OS rather than Bada or Meebo itself. WebOS, another Linux based OS could give them what they need — either to incorporate WebOS into their current Linux base, or to simply use WebOS. Both could take WebOS and produce a dozen different phones based on it in a matter of months.
Sony Ericsson is just in desperate need for anything. They’ve been out of the game for quite a while.
Of course the awful truth is why spend money on a debt ridden company when there are several other routes you can take. Go Windows 7, and Microsoft will shower you with development money and help. Android, Meebo, and Bada are all open source. Nokia is still willing to push Symbian and with the incorporation of Qt library, it might actually be worth something.
In this case, WebOS is like Betamax. A system that some say is technologically superior, but not enough to overcome the mistakes of its parent company.
Why doesn’t Motorola, Sony, Panasonic, or another such buy Palm? They can all deliver the hardware, but all are dependent on one of two mobile OSs: Windows or Android. Apple, RIM, and Palm, are all proprietary (Symbian too, and it sucks). I find it inexcusable that such potential powerhouses are reduced to me-too producers, because they don’t have their own OS.
I understand that in reality they likely don’t have the culture to handle kickass hardware and software, packaged in a tight new product. But wouldn’t this be their chance to acquire and develop it and actually compete in this still-forming market?
Hell, even Dell, HP, or Nokia could benefit from such a move. Apple went from computers to music to phones and now to tablets. Do none of these other companies have the testicular fortitude to try reaching beyond their current product portfolios? Is it only Apple and Google who can do this? (MS excepted).
Serious, I don’t understand why the others aren’t getting in on the fun: get your own software and hardware, control your own destiny, and take a crack at it. Better than sitting passively and getting left behind or screwed. Motorola is still trying to remove the knife Google placed in it’s back. Samsung is trying their own OS: bada. It’s an attempt, though a weak one.
Btw, the problem with the patents is that they’re often easily contestable and can tie up a company in litigation for years, draining their money and resources, while the industry and technologies move forward. We’ve all seen examples of this. I’d buy Palm to be able to kick start hw/sw integrated products and consider the patents a bonus.
Jean-Louis, kudos on your work with Be; regardless of the outcome, it takes courage to do it (it’s easy to criticize from the sidelines). Wouldn’t it be fun to take another stab at it? Tell you want, if you folks can scrape the loose change from the couch, I’ll take a crack at it. There’s so much still possible!
Rajiv
@Christopher
I agree that of all the iPhone Alternatives, WebOS provided the greatest promise, but I do advise against jumping on the bandwagon of a dying OS.
I once thought a dying alternative OS was worth the effort, but was just heartbroken when it died. As a refugee of BeOS I settled on Mac OS X. It was nowhere near as well designed as BeOS, but had a similar pedigree, and was much better than the other alternatives.
@Peter
How did BeOS work out for JLG? I don’t know the financials, and I’m sure they are none of my business, but when Be Inc. was sold to Palm it was still worth something. Right now Palm is worth less than nothing to most investors.
The one that can gain the most from acquiring Palm is RIM. With such move RIM can upgrade their consumer value proposition and get hand on hefty IPR package.
See “Who Can Save Palm” post on VisionMobile: http://www.visionmobile.com/blog/2009/11/who-can-save-palm/
Why companies other than goog, msft and aapl wont buy palm? Because they dont have as much cash.
Any of these buyers have to immediately kill webOS as there are too many os’s in the market. Anybody thinks webOS is a plus point dont have a point, rather its development sucked money out of palm.
HTC should buy Palm for the patents to use to counter sue Apple. I’m sure many PDA patents predate anything Apple has.
I tought that RIM buying (or licence) Palm Pre webos was a clever move but there were no sign like this in the last month, very sad for Palm which was really innovation and had a large base of supporters.
Merci pour cette analyse Jean-Louis! Good to hear from the ones who know.
What about a company like Google? There is no reason in the world for Nokia, RIM, Apple, etc. to go out of their way to buy up a company like Palm,
However, Google being the only top player who doesn’t make it’s own hardware could benefit greatly from picking up Palm on a discount. Imagine Palm running and pushing Android?
People are familiar with Plam. People are becoming familiar with Android I think if Google scooped up Palm and started slinging Palm/Android smartphones on the cheap you got a game changer.
Gary Arndt said:
“HTC should buy Palm for the patents to use to counter sue Apple. I’m sure many PDA patents predate anything Apple has.”
Remember, Apple was a pioneer in the PDA space too, with the Newton.
1st time here，feel good，great
I think Palm’s problems go back further than WebOS. Our business used to use Palm PDAs for the simple reason that there was no practical alternative at the time. There were two problems (i) they had limited abilities and (ii) the hardware died frequently and had to be replaced. We moved to the iPhone when it came out and from day 1 it was an incredible step forwards in ability and over time the hardware has proven robust and reliable.
Palm instantly looked like it was out of the game and the problem was a lack of development during all the years that they owned the PDA market. If other users had a similar experience to our business then there wasn’t really a lot of goodwill for Palm. Lots of people were just waiting for a better alternative to come along.
The pity is that WebOS is apparently very good (I haven’t used it) but I think the Palm brand may actually have held it back. At this point, I can’t imagine anyone succeeding in making WebOS a success against such strong competition. Therefore, all Palm (possibly) has left is a pile of patents.
Your analysis of Palm’s current and future problems may be correct, but your accounting is not.
A negative balance in shareholders’ equity does not necessarily indicate that the company’s debts are greater than its assets. A company with $100M in cash, $0 debt and a long history of losses and paid-in-capital (say $150M worth) will have a shareholders’ equity value of negative $50M. All it indicates is that, had you been the sole owner of Palm since its inception, you would have a net deficit (or you would have paid dividends out that exceeded the net amount retained in prior periods). Further, even if the book value of the company is negative, there can still be a market value.
To be sure, it’s definitely not a hallmark of a happy, healthy company, but it’s not a death knell either. Remember also that this is an accrual number, not a cash number. Boeing posted a negative book value in mid-2009 as a result of a large write-down in the value of their pension assets, but they’re not about to go under.
I think nobody will come forward to buy palm …this is all to do with the OS…every other company (other than Apple) will try to use android, because of many reasons in androids favor….
In its days of glory, Palm has mostly been able to capitalize on the fact that Apples Newton, although mostly unconcurrented on the PDA market, was too big and too expensive. Palm devices were very much what many people would have expected the Newton to be: simple, small, cheap. Today, the market is very different and Palm seems like an aging Diva who failed to leave the stage when the applause got mute.
What PALM needs to compete in this new world gadget era is to be WALMARTized. PALM is exactly what WALMART lacks and I am sure that WALMART can take over PALM and convert it into a super world-wide competitor of smartphone, non-smartphone, tablet PC, and gadgets we haven’t even dreamed up yet. PALMs historic innovation proves they have what it takes, just not the right management nor wallet. WALMART can boost the confidence of investors and consumers overall.
webOS is by far the most superior mobile platform as of today. It’s a shame Palm’s marketing strategy is such a disaster…
Let’s forget Palms hardware. What’s WebOS worth. I own a Pre, used to own an iPhone and Blackberry, and find WebOS to be far more capable than either of their OS.
What is that worth, and is it quantifiable?
Palm’s marketing was just plain bizarre. The creepy new age girl, the bizarre Verizon “housewife” commercials … none of those got my interest.
We develop trivia games for iPhone, including our best-seller Bible Trivia. We decided to go into the Palm market as well. The design of the WebOS is pretty good for text-based trivia games like our products.
Despite wonderful multitasking features, in my view the Pre is just a bad phone. The keyboard is dreadful. In my area, the Sprint network didn’t work at all, in places where AT&T and Verizon were fine. And once they started charging us $50 to submit an application, on a platform where that is a significant percentage of likely revenues, it was obvious the relationship just was not working.
On the other hand, I have used Android and in my eyes the interface is confusing and clunky, far inferior to the Pre. If there was a WebOS phone with an iPhone like design and an onscreen keyboard, I would recommend it over Android. The keyboard design ruins the Pre and the smaller screen and slower processor damages the Pixi.
In my eyes, iPhone wins this contest easily. The onscreen keyboard and its typo correction features are superb. The phone does a far better job than any other at tracking your touches and making it really feel like you are manipulating real objects inside the display, as opposed to manipulating a display. Apple sweated the details incredibly well, which of course is pretty much what Steve Jobs stands for. They invented the app market model and unlike many pioneers they got exactly what they deserved: Fabulous success.
It’s about time for me to upgrade my iPhone (I skipped the 3Gs) and I am looking forward to the new model. I hope they can figure out a way to get a high resolution display on the new phone without destroying all the apps, including ours, that use art depending on the old display. I’m not sure how it can be done, but if it can be, Apple will do it.
D
Palm’s only asset is its patent portfolio.
I’m sure Apple has looked over the portfolio.
If Apple thinks Palm’s patent portfolio is worthless, then Palm is worthless.
First, I’d like to say that this was a well written article and that I appreciate Jean-Louis Gassée’s view of this situation. With Be, this is obviously familiar territory for him.
Second, I do find it amusing how we tend to elevate the perceived quality of a product when it’s dead or dying, much like how an artist’s work is worth more after they’re gone. WebOS is a promising product and I would agree that it’s probably the nearest competitor to the iPhone in quality, but lets not pretend that there aren’t issues with WebOS. There are plenty and their SDK isn’t near as robust as what Apple is doing, etc. Yes, it excels in some areas and yes, it’s probably better than Android. However, Palm has suffered from mismanagement. This article touches on the basics including the comments from Roger McNamee to the ridiculous episodes with hacking the iTunes syncing feature, etc.
Finally, when you consider the market with the iPhone, Android and now Windows Phone 7, WebOS isn’t exactly a stand-out player. However, have others have noted, Palm will be bought by someone for the legacy IP material alone. WebOS certainly appears to be treading on Apple’s IP. I’m fairly confident that Palm as enough IP to keep Apple from suing. Seeing as though Apple went after HTC (Android), we can only speculate why they didn’t go after Palm. I’m sure the fact that WebOS isn’t successful is a factor, but Palm’s existing IP is probably a bigger factor.
All is not lost at Palm. They have a great OS, somewhat OK hardware, terrible marketing, and questionable top leadership. Ruby is a great technology guy who can develop compelling products, but he is no Steve Jobs. Ruby has successfully infused Palm with Apple DNA/Pixie dust and have done a pretty good reboot of their product line. Now is the time to bring in a CEO who has the smarts and wherewithal to steer the ship forward, perhaps a Mark Hurd clone at this stage of the company’s phase.
The answer is simple. Ruby has to go.
While, I agree with Mr. Gassée’s analysis, I think that either RIM or Nokia might buy Palm, because their own multitouch OSs are awful, and their respective attempts at developing a multitouch OS to compete with Apple’s iPhone have been such utter failures. However, I doubt that either company would pay much or need to pay much for Palm, unless they got into a bidding war for Palm’s carcass. And that would only happen after due diligence showed that Palm’s Web OS is solid technology with good potential, that the Web OS does not infringe on Apple or anyone else’s IP, and that the Web OS is significantly better than what either company has in its R&D labs.
I think HTC should buy Palm, or at least wait for liquidation and buy the IP assets. I think owning the Palm IP and WebOS architecture would elevate HTC above being just another “me too” Windows Phone/Android shop. They could continue to leverage their Sense UI and Windows/Android licenses for consumer devices, and relaunch the Palm brand towards business/professional users to compete against BlackBerry in that space (with business-savvy devices to match.) HTC would also be in a position to leverage the UI paradigms from WebOS in custom interfaces or skins for other consumer platforms (i.e. in an updated version of Sense UI for Android.)
With webOS getting so much praise, the problem has to partially lie with the hardware. So, it’s confusing to me that Palm now will release the Palm Pre and Pixi Plus on AT&T in the next couple of months, instead of learning a lesson and releasing _newly_ designed hardware to try to reboot and change the trend. E.g. offer the Pixi with a larger screen and no physical keyboard. That could be nice. I mean, Apple will release a new iPhone and new Android devices will come out. It seems to me that Palm _must_ release new, highly attractive hardware. That is in the end what sells. A nice OS is nice, but great hardward is a must. Comments?
I think Motorola needs it’s own OS. They been burned by MS, Apple and Google.
Palm could have prospered by using Sprint. Yes, Verizon and AT&T are bigger, but Sprint does have a very solid network AND was searching for a flagship phone. Unfortunately, Palm delivered a phone that wasn’t built well, had hardware/memory issues and, of course, software issues. They also announced in January and couldn’t deliver until June…wasting much of the hype they had garnered.
The Pre was not ready to compete against later generation iPhones and was also buggy and disappointing to those that purchased.
So, what does Palm do? They release a new-improved model, but through Verizon. So, now Sprint customers know there’s a better version, but they can’t get it unless they switch…and if they’re going to switch why not switch and get the more heavily marketed iPhone or Droid?
Verizon was happy to take the Pre Plus on their terms, but it’s in the backseat behind the Droid.
We could also talk about the inane marketing/commercials for the Pre, but that’s really just piling on.
So, late delivery, shoddy/underpowered hardware, buggy software, obtuse marketing and going with a smaller carrier that was limited to the US…what would you expect to happen?
Unfortunately for Palm. The Pre is too little too late. They owned the market with the Palm PDA and the Treos, but sat on an outdated OS and failed to move forward for nearly a decade. Blackberry
For anyone thinking Microsoft would buy Palm for webOS (as opposed to another asset like its patents), remember that webOS relies heavily not only on Linux but on Apple’s WebKit and Google’s V8. There’s no way Microsoft would buy into a platform with those dependencies.
Every smart phone hitting the market is an iPhone knock-off including the Pre. Before the iPhone there was nothing similar on the market. Now every new introduction is an iPhone CopyCat product. It’s much easier to copy the hardware than the iTunes eco system and app store. Some CopyCats are doing better than others. But duplicating all that would be a big task for a company with Palm’s resources.
Nokia has access to the most cell phone markets worldwide. They’re also most likely the furthest behind Apple in terms of product development and technology. Will they even be able to turn Symbian into a small computer OS? Or will they eventually dump Symbian for their Linux variant. They clearly don’t want to play Google’s Android game.
The cost to acquire Palm would be pocket change for Nokia. The Pre would give them something to sell right away that is a credible iPhone knock-off.
I’m an optimist. It’s hard for me to comprehend why Elevation and McNamee would invest so heavily in Palm if he didn’t see something promising down the road.
Perhaps the Pre was released to maintain cashflow and maybe it’s name foreshadows something much greater.
I hope.
An investment company will acquire PALM and become patent trolls.
JL. you’re probably still bitter that Palm didn’t do anything with BeOS, but that is all water under the bridge now. Stop making it sound like the Pre or WebOS are less worthy to succeed because of that.
Remember Apple’s revival? The Pre is their iMac. They now need their 1984 ad-hammer to make waves.
Palm shall prevail.
Gabriel Radic: What? This has nothing to do with how worthy Palm is to succeed. The problem is that WebOS may well have been too little, too late. Don’t get me wrong, I’m sure it’s a nice system and all, and had it been released two years earlier it would probably have been a huge success. However, it was neither released in 2007, nor a huge success. There was just too much competition, and WebOS didn’t stand out enough.
By no means is this similar to the iMac, which stood out a lot from it’s competition. Also, the 1984 commercial wasn’t for the iMac, but for the original Macintosh.
This is from the briliance that made BeOS: Jean-Louis Gassée.
BeOS was bought by PALM. Another sling in the broken quiver
Excellent, reasoned piece, Jean-Louis. At this stage of the mobile market, I would argue that it’s truly about the platform, and whether the “dogs” (developers) are eating the dog food and coming back for seconds. For the life of me, I can’t point to one developer who has made serious strategic bet on Palm and/or one compelling app that has been birthed from the WebOS platform. That is the kiss of death, IMHO.
Keep up the good work!
Mark
davesmall uses what I think is a very just term: iPhone copy-cat. Every new smartphone that comes out will be called an “iPhone killer.” What have they made? Something that really looks like an iPhone, largely. Business still tends to like Blackberry, for the moment, but the rest of the market? Just after I bought my iPhone 3G two years ago, I went to the doctor’s office, and realized there were four iPhones in the waiting room! Whatever the patent implications — there should be, but never will be, a reform of the patent, because too many businesses have too much to lose — Apple will own the market for a long while, until someone brings out another design. Not a killer, but a brand-new device that is really different from the iPhone. Not a full-screen touch pad with onscreen keyboard, a brand new imagined device. The iPod was a revolution because it was allowed to stay in the market for a long while with no effective competitor. The iPod had the store. It had the click-wheel. Its features kept on escalating while the price remained the same. Windows support clinched the deal. By the time Microsoft made the Zune and their music store, the brand itself was defined, and “iPod” and “podcast” had become part of the language. Then it morphed into the Touch and the iPhone. I’m not talking about the tech types, or the hackers, Middle America knows about the iPod. They walk past the Zune and don’t realize what it is.
You can’t compete against a cultural phenomenon by adding, say, FM radio. No one gives a damn about a feature. Make something brand new, that appeals as broadly as the iPod/iPhone, and then you can talk about having a “killer.”
@ Jim H – Unfortunately, a CopyCat strategy has become popular in the world of high-tech. I think it is because Microsoft was able to build the largest and most successful company in Tech by copying. They copied Lotus 1-2-3 (Excel), copied Word Perfect (Word), copied the Mac OS (Windows), copied Netscape Navigator (Internet Explorer), copied Flash (Silverlight), copied Java, copied just about everything to create their product line. You could say that Microsoft is in the knock-off business and you wouldn’t be far from the truth. So why is it surprising that other companies like Google, Palm, Motorola, HTC, Research in Motion, and Nokia would take a page from the Microsoft play book?
Palm apparently believes that nobody is buying their phones because of a lack of marketing and training of sprint sales staff. They are wrong. Nobody is buying Pre’s because they cost too much. All told, TCO over a two year contract is roughly (within 10%) the same for a Pre as for an iPhone. But given the situation with applications, hardware, developers, network effects, etc., the iPhone is worth about 2 times what a Pre is worth. So either the Pre is priced 2x too high, or the iPhone is a half-price bargain. Either way, it makes no sense at all to buy a Palm product. Cut the price of ownership in half and they will more than double their sales.
Well, for me the downfall started when they decided to exit the PDA market. There is still a lot of mileage in it. I used a PPC6700 for 3 years with MS 5.0 and the day the contract expired I went back to a simple cell phone and pulled my M500 from the closet (thankfully I did not trash or sell it) and never shall the 2 be combined again unless the OSs are much better than at present or past. I understand the move to the cell phone market but there seemed no vision of Palm as to how to differentiate from all the rest. Apple understood the need and waited until it could. I’ve looked at the Pre and Pixie and there is nothing there better or worse than 90% of the smartphones. It seems only RIM and Apple really understood this basic marketing concept.
I was at a meeting not long ago with some 100 others and when I pulled my Palm M500 out there was some who pointed it out. Amazingly, more than a few opened their cases and likewise pulled out their Palm PDA (admittedly newer models) and said they still maintain them as the smartphones are not as convenient to use and have issues crashing with a loss of data. It seems to be more common with the MS OS than the RIM. However, they hid the fact as it was no longer cool to pull out the PDA. Maybe Palm should reintroduce a decent PDA and make it cool again and let their users come out of the closet.
I too have pulled my M500 Palm out of the closet… I read this article to see if anyone is able to get a good PDA blended with a phone…I am going to be purchasing a phone only… I agree with Brian… PALM… GET BACK TO WHAT YOU ARE BEST AT… A PDA…
No surprize that ‘Palm’ is slowly dissappearing. Had one, cracked the screen and sent it in. Palm told me that the screen replacement cost would be $99.00. The PDA only cost $129.00!! I e-mailed a reply to ‘Palm’ basically telling them what part of thier body they could shove it up. No wonder ‘Palm’ will soon be history!!
My Dream? Steve Jobs Buys Palm
I had Palm for 12 years and watched as the hardware of this extremely handy tool became less and less reliable. Still, Palm’s operating system is still so simple for a cripto-Luddite like me. What Iphone 3G doesn’t have are the simplest tools of the Palm OS from 10 years ago. e.g. Palm Memos can be written or pasted quickly on your laptop, then downloaded into Palm. Not only can iTunrs not support the transfer of my 1800 + Palm memos, it does not even have a means for me to enter new “Notes” from my laptop via iTunes. Everything has to be done via the clunky “typing” on the actual iPhone. Ditto, entering contacts. Palm Contacts transfer to iPhone can be done, but only through a complicated system using Outlook( from Microsoft, a company Steve Jobs presumably hates more than he hates Palm)
You would think with the SS Palm half sunk, that Steve would be welcoming old Palm users onto his ship. Instead, he won’t even allow an App to correct these problems
Bar none, the Palm WebOS is the best OS for a mobile device I have seen. It match points the iphone OS and surpasses. But, something can be better and absolutely fail.
Marketing. Strategy. Consumer awareness of brand.
Palm missed those things, not being superior as a device.
Hands down, the webOS and the Palm Pre is the best one out there.
Betamax was out against VHS at the same time as laser disk. Laser disk was the best technology and basically DVD 10 years before DVD came out. Betamax was a better format that VHS.
VHS won. It won on these principles: Marketing. Strategy. Consumer awareness of brand. Not quality.
People need to have a better sense of time and place. I’m sorry Mr. Gasse, maybe you’re not solely to blame, but you seem to have been in an important position in many places where a decline was in process, most notably Palmsource. I have a difficult time placing much weight in your opinion in light of that.
There is a lot of old information being re-circulated as well as a self-reinforcing loop that the race has already been won, to the contrary, it’s just beginning and that’s without considering the global market.
Consider for Palm:
- 4G, mobile broadband (end of year 2010?)
- WebOS 1.4
- meaningful game development by EA, Gameloft and others
- actual sales\training support initiative for Verizon
All of the above will take a few months to gain traction and are certainly not reflected in the Feb 2010 quarter.
Certainly cash flow and debt are serious issues but we are only at the nine month release mark. Marketing to date has been mishandled but bottomline is they have a good product. Three key people have a track record of success: Rubinstein (Apple), McNamee (T. Rowe Price Science & Tech. fund, private equity investor) and Bono (U2).
To consider:
* http://g4tv.com/attackoftheshow/gadgetpr0n/70184/Palm-Pre-Plus-Review.html
* http://digitaldaily.allthingsd.com/20100305/gdc-10-palms-mobile-gaming-push/?reflink=ATD_yahoo_ticker
Jean-Louis, I think a lot of people — I was one of them — didn’t pay any attention at all to Palm or the Pre, statements or no statements. At the time in question, it was all about the iPhone and the berries and, although I had a friend who said with great enthusiasm that she was getting a Palm Pre because it was b etter, as it turned out she ended up with an iPhone. And that’s just the way it was.
“Palm quickly disowned such statements, but the damage was done, lofty, out-of-reach expectations were set.”
Palm has a rich history but most will agree having a good or great product never guarantees success. The Treo was ahead of its time but the Pre, while it has some amazing features, got the market(ing) wrong. There is no tightly connected, Apple-style, user ecosystem or the critical mass of Google’s strength.
The history of innovative products are littered with losers, just ask Sony about the Betamax. Disappointing as it may be, Palm may well only be viable as a patent stable; to be consigned to history as an also ran.
great article and comments, especially the idea of playing top trumps with IP as to who has the earliest and how much does it cover. I think for IP reasons but also to get hold of it’s OS I think one of the main phone makers will be interested, especially nokia which already makes linux based phones, but given that symbian is very unpolished and lacks a lots of usability requiring a lot of effort to get it to do things that other phone OS’ do easily. Though it does have opera mobile browser which I would hate to lose.
All, Interestingly, I work in some big Telco Equipment provider which has sold its “Mobile Branch” around 10 years ago. We had too small sale numbers, a fairly known brand in a couple of developped countries and a good range of IP.
Guess who has bought the company?
Not our big competitors (Nokia, Ericsson, and the likes at the time). These guys had a better brand and overlapping IP portfolio. Their best bet was to let us suffocate and snatch our market share.
An obscure chinese equipment provider bought the Branch. They kept the Brand but their biggest incentive to buy was to get their hands on our official IP => So they finally could sell out of China the mobile phones they built without infriging third party IP rights.
Now, regarding Palm, you have to think out of the US box. May be some Taiwanese, Chinese or Indian could make an offer…
I guess with yesterday’s Sprint announcement about the HTC Supersonic or whatever they’re going to call it the Pre is now at best a 2nd or 3rd option at all of the major carriers. Sprint was obviously burned on the Pre Plus deal and is going to look elsewhere for a flagship phone.
If Palm is bought, it will mean the end of WebOS, at least as we know it…
And that would be really sad.
Reminds me of an OS of the late nineties… BeOS, whose Intellectual Property was ironically bought by a certain company called… Palm
Thank you for the link
wow, its very cretive
Wiww… Nice information you shared to us…
i will think it twice
okai thanks for information..
nice post!!
“I’m afraid Palm will be twisting in the wind for a short while and then call it a day. A sad ending for the company that once led the Personal Digital Assistant (PDA) world and then made substantial inroads into the nascent smartphone industry with its Treo” I think so about it Jean,. Thanks for share about this.
This is the last chance for the palm. If they don’t sell now then they will fall too far behind.
Maybe google will buy the palm for develop the web OS,
that’s great article..thanks for sharing info…
thx nice info
well, i think google will buy them.
I think HP will buy them out
I guess we know now! I wonder if HP will keep the brand ‘PALM’ alive and well or will it just become another HP branded smartphone?
Manielse’s comment above links to his techyell.com blog, well worth reading for an inside look into Palm’s recent years.
Google will buy them.
HTC should buy Palm for the patents to use to counter sue Apple. I’m sure many PDA patents predate anything Apple has.
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I was once the huge supporter of Palm. It’s really sad that it is not in the market now…
Palm interface was so great and user-friendly…
Very sad news! I had a Palm V back in the days, after the comeup from Handspring they seem to lose their market domination.
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kinda old, I guess they need to innovate more somehow
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[...] Ainda não percebi muito bem qual o problema da Palm. Já foi a companhia dos geeks e nerds com os dispositivos que todos queriam ter. Depois descambou… Foram os dispositivos baseados em Windows, foi o Foleo, o primeiro Netbook que nunca chegou a ver a luz do dia, foi o sistema operativo baseado em Linux que chegou atrasado e conseguem ainda falhar no “Quem me quer comprar”. O que se passa é que de repente a Palm perdeu a posição de menina bonita. Apareceram mais (e bons) concorrentes no mesmo mercado e a Palm não estava preparada. Infelizmente tudo parece estar a correr mal para a Palm… e as engenharias financeiras também não ajudam. [...]
[...] Gassée / Monday Note: Who will buy Palm? — If you’re in a hurry: no one. — If you have more time, [...]
[...] full post on Hacker News If you enjoyed this article, please consider sharing it! Tagged with: [...]
[...] an die Marke oder das aktuelle Portfolio Palms glaubt. Dass dies immer unwahrscheinlicher wird, legt unter anderem Monday Note dar, mehrere Analysten haben ihr Kursziel für das Wertpapier bereits auf null Dollar [...]
[...] one is going to save Palm, says Jean-Louis Gassée in a blog post. We think he might be [...]
[...] They took control of Palm, brought in new money, ditched the old management and the old product, the Treo, put in new team and new technology in play. And ended up with today
[...] former founder of Be Inc. and now a general partner at venture-capital firm Allegis Capital. He doesn’t see a white knight with a bag of money riding to Palm’s rescue, [...]
[...] UPDATE 2010-03-22: Seems like I have a point: http://www.mondaynote.com/2010/03/21/who-will-buy-palm/ [...]
[...] Who will buy Palm? By Jean Louis Gassée, who has a very interesting story both similar and related to Palm’s with Be Inc. – so he has the experience. [...]
[...] future of the brand ensued. What the heck happened, here? John Gruber at Daring Fireball linked to a clear and comprehensive analysis of Palm’s current woes, written by someone with considerable insight into the situation, Jean-Louis [...]
[...] under: Competitive Strategy, AT and T (T), Palm Inc (PALM)After reading this breakdown of Palm’s (PALM) lethal combination of mistakes in the last year, one would wonder where the [...]
[...] the heck happened, here? John Gruber at Daring Fireball linked to a clear and comprehensive analysis of Palm’s current woes, written by someone with considerable insight into the situation, [...]
[...] the moment, it’s fashionable to declare Palm to be dead. It’s true that things look bleak at the moment, but pundits have been writing premature [...]
[...] ShotgunPost-it | OffSiteAm.ComFree Service From The Flooring Supply Shop Matches Customers With …Who will buy Palm? | Monday NoteApple iPhone 3g Glass Screen + Digitizer + Adhesive Lens Cover …Cushion Grip Thermoplastic Denture [...]
[...] their patents, like SCO tried with UNIX. Here’s Jean-Louis Gassee’s take on Palm’s imminent fate: Who will buy Palm? | Monday Note Palm lost 3 or more years due to reorgs, shaking customer and developer confidence in PalmOS by [...]
[...] a MondayNote analysis, Jean-Louis Gassee takes us through Palm’s current situation, and why no one will [...]
[...] (who were supposed to be purchased by Apple, but Apple nabbed NeXT instead), is writing about how Palm stuffed it all up and should just go away and die as they’re not even worth [...]
[...] Who will buy Palm? — mondaynote.com Damon Darlin says: Jean-Louis Gassée says Palm will twist in the wind and “then call it a day.” [...]
[...] Is Palm’s last hope a takeover and if so who will buy the firm? Jean-Louis Gass
[...] Who will buy Palm? (tags: article technology palm editorial) [...]
[...] of Barbecue, my appearance on Anthony Bourdain: No Reservations, content censorship on the iPad and the grim future of Palm Computing. Click Here to listen to the March 22nd, 2010 Frugal Tech Show Podcast. posted by Jason Perlow March [...]
[...] might force Palm to make this desperate move? I’ll have to defer to Jean Louis Gassée (who knows a thing or two about companies with new Operating Systems [...]
[...] Palm’s stocks will dive to zero. Jean-Louis Gassée, once of Apple, has this to say about Palm’s future: “I’m afraid Palm will be twisting in the wind for a short while and then call it a [...]
[...] couple weeks ago the prognosis was bad. Palm shares fell to $4. I thought the Pre, overall, was about as good as the iPhone for most [...]
[...] In a previous MondayNote, I wrote that no one would buy Palm. [...]
[...] Who will buy Palm? >> Monday NoteJean-Louis Gassée, former Apple Mac head, founder of Be. Inc: “in one day, this past Friday March 19th, Palm shares collapsed, -29% in one Nasdaq session, closing at $4. The obvious question is why [did it fall]? But a second query immediately comes up: why $4, why not zero?” [...]
[...] Apple’s iPhone in elegance and ambition, the phones failed to sell. Given its recent earnings and desperate cash position, it’s clear the company is heading for a spectacular [...]