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I don’t think so. In multiple Interviews i heard Tim Cook saying that it’s mostly about focus, focus, focus. He gets what Apple makes unique, and to “compromise to make profit” is just not Apple’s DNA in which he marinated in the last 15 years. And look what he did to Apple’s supply chain in the last years. I personally have great faith in this soft-spoken guy …

Peak computing?
The thing is that Apple is/was unique. They had a fanatical leader that was obsessed about details. He demanded perfection, he often demanded things that was not possible to do. He believed in doing the greatest products ever, and then making money. That was why he was so obsessed with hoarding money. To never have to make compromise.

At the end, those values payed off. Apples customers are unique. They are not only loyal customers, but evangelists. These are the best customers. They preach how great Apple products are.

We are now in a new era. The Tim Cook era. He is willing to do compromise to make profit. He is willing to release non perfect products. This can hurt Apple in the long run. But we have many companies that are huge that releases crappy products. Microsoft have never done a good product, and they still are ranked 3 most valued brand.

Apple maybe are so large that customers accept crap.

But I want a company that is fanatical about doing the greatest products possible at any price. That work, have great support and are beautiful. Like Steve said: Art, science and religion, all into one.
That am I prepared to pay a 30-40% premium over competing products.

The more threatening thing for the iPhone business is innovation. The telephones can do almost anything today. What new killer features is there to add?

iPhone next gen have 4G, iOS6 with 3D maps, updated Siri, better camera. A bit taller screen 3.99 inch. Maybe NFC.

But after that?

When will phones be good enough that people feel that they don’t need to upgrade each 12-24 month?

On other hand, mobile phones will someday replace desktop computers. Already today the average iPhone costs over 200 dollars more then the average PC. The feature is to just have your phone. Airplay to the monitor. Wireless keyboard/mouse and you have a setup that is enough for 95% of users today.

This post of yours was brilliant!

-humu

We passed peak oil in the 1970′s, and ever since then we have used less. We are nowhere near close to peak computing. It may not even be possible to hit peak computing and then start using less. But even if it is possible, it is decades or centuries away. And the part of the market that is the least-saturated is the not-a-nerd part that only Apple has ever shown any ability to comprehend and serve.

If you just run the basic numbers on how many computers and phones and so on that are needed over the next 10 years, Apple HAS to grow by 10 times its size or the world will not have enough computers.

So there is a basic misunderstanding by the general population of what is happening in the computer industry. They think it is Typewriter Market, Part 6. It is not. Computers replaced typewriters in the 20th century, but in the 21st century they replace EVERYTHING: music players, paper (iPad,) cars, credit cards, TV’s, and so on. It will take almost unimaginable amounts of design work to get that done. It will take incredible amounts of technology, layers of software and hardware and networking. It will require devices that need almost no user training, because that costs more than the computers. If Apple fell asleep and had a dream, it would be to wake up in a world that is this hungry for computing, and this poorly-served by everyone other than Apple.

Alas, so little understanding…
..
It is not “WS Idiots” that Apple is “appeasing” with dividends/buybacks – Apple owners are legally and morally entitled to the un-investable earnings suplus which belongs to them. If anything, the continued management excuses for hoarding such excessive amounts at zero return are inexcusable…no private owner would allow this to continue.

Apple doesn’t need to. All it has to do is concentrate on making the best products possible and keeping their customers happy — the rest will take care of itself. I view their decision to do a dividend and stock buy back as a mistake — there is no appeasing the Wall St. idiots who think Amazon is worth a P/E of 174. If they undervalue Apple enough, Apple could take itself private with the ever growing cash pile. Of course I don’t think that will happen, because ultimately Apple’s success, and its competitors collective failure, quarter after quarter will be impossible to ignore.

Fooled by statistics and pretty charts?

Anything correlated to Apples’ earnings will appear correlated to the stock price. In fact the opposite is likely true – not only cash is not a determinant of Apple’s share price, but in fact the low PE indicates that cash is discounted to zero.

…If it were the case that Apple is enjoying that level of subsidies on all postpaid carriers worldwide. I have the impression that they are not. Browsing through the websites of European and Asian/Pacific carriers, the iPhone is mostly available at a premium compared to high-end Androids.

I would claim that the US may be the only market where Apple has been able to negotiate preferential subsidies and the only market where an iPhone is not more expensive than an Android. Unless somebody can find some counter examples from other countries?

If my observation is correct, some pricing pressure in the US would force Apple to lower their wholesale prices, would hurt their margins (which are over 50 % today), but would be very beneficial in international markets both postpaid and prepaid. Apple would reach pricing parity with (medium to high end, branded) Android not just in the US, but worldwide. That would give them more than enough growth to make up for the lower margin.

Apple has clearly disrupted the smartphone industry with the iPhone and the computer industry with the iPad and is still gathering strength. Apple is still opening new stores while other companies are laying off and yet Wall Street doesn’t have any belief that Apple can continue growing. I’m sorry, but it just doesn’t make any sense. Maybe it doesn’t have to, though. Belief is belief, whether it’s misguided or not. There’s no reason that Apple’s value should be modeled for $0.00 long-term growth. That’s highly unlikely to happen.

Yes, nice growth, EXCEPT, Apple’s top line growth is better! And, it’s bottom line growth is phenomenal, as you note. Why invest in something that might happen, Amazon making monopoly-like profits, when Apple is already doing it?

“Amazon will take advantage of what is delicately called “pricing power”. As the Last Man Standing, they will raise prices at will and regain profitability.”

But can it kill everyone, including WalMart? Isn’t their “pricing power” capped by retailers like WalMart? If so, they’ll never make the kind of margins the current share price implies.

“Apple’s founder is no longer with us while Bezos is very much in command”

This might be plausible if the data showed that Apple was priced higher when Steve was alive.

“these are big numbers that could go either way: Straight to Apple’s bottom line”

Actually, the subsidies do not drop straight to Apple’s bottom line. And, even if there were subsidy pressure, which there isn’t as long as the iPhone is the most popular, the subsidy would follow supply-demand, in that it would change incrementally. It wouldn’t likely go to zero, suddenly, due to the length of contracts Apple has with carriers, rather it would slot in somewhere along the sliding scale of subsidies. The risk is calculable and not an all or nothing gamble, so one wouldn’t discount the $24B in subsidy to zero.

The highly correlated relationship between share price and cash is strange. I can only think that the market is confused by Apple (not surprising really), doesn’t believe the numbers at hand and has fallen back to cash on hand as a reliable metric. Strange.

I’ve stated before that a good thought experiment would be for Apple to buy Amazon, and see what the market thinks. Can Bezos use his RDF to give the new Applezon a 100PE on $50+B in earnings?