Readers are voting with their wallets: The eBook is winning. In the US, eBooks sales are now topping hardcovers for the first time (story in TechCrunch). Not everywhere of course. According to the Bowker Global eBook Research, the global market for eBooks is driven — in that order — by India, Australia, the UK and the United States. The laggards are Japan and (no surprise) France. The chart below shows the percentage of internet population reporting the purchase of a digital book over the last six months prior to the survey.
Interestingly, for most population samples, the level of purchases is not correlated with awareness. France enjoys the highest level of awareness but its internet population buys five times less eBooks than India’s. Once an Indian internet user finds an attractive digital book offer, he/she will most likely jump on it. This could lead to the following: in emerging countries, the cellular phone has become the main communication tool, leapfrogging the deployment of land lines; similarly, we could see eBooks bypassing print in countries like India where a large segment of the population is getting both literate and connected at a fast pace. (Actually, Bowker also reports that over 50% of respondents in India and Brazil are likely to buy an eBook in the next six months, ten times more than in France.)
If the rise of the eBook happily provides access to knowledge in emerging countries, the picture is more contrasted in countries with a long history and high penetration of printed books.
Between 2002 and 2011, in the US market, ISBN registration grew by 61% and reached 347,178 new titles. (A technical note: I’m only taking into account books that fall in an identified category, such as Arts, Biography, Business, etc. I’m excluding the huge segment labeled as nontraditional, which includes reprints, public domain, and titles printed on demand; this segment grew by over 3500% to 1.2 million registrations, which would distort the picture.)
We clearly see the impact of mainstream e-readers such as the Kindle and the iPad. Without any doubt, they contributed to the growth of registrations. (Unfortunately, ISBN counts does not provide a breakdown between print and digital.) Over the last nine years, some book publishing segments fared better than others. See the chart below:
Fiction is doing twice better than all other categories together. The Digital Book is the medium of choice for fiction: a) eBooks are set to be cheaper that print and price elasticity is now a proven fact, the cheaper a book is, the more likely a reader is to try it; b) e-commerce breeds impulse buying (cf the famous “One-Click® feature); c) readers can test the product more efficiently than in the printed world as Amazon and the iBooks Store make larges sample available for free. No surprise, then, to see the Fiction category holding well.
No surprise either in seeing the three worst performers also as prime victims of the digital era. History books have to compete with the vast trove of material available on the web; that’s the Encyclopaedia Britannica syndrome, going out of print after 244 years of duty, demoted by the 11-year-old Wikipedia. Like it or not, most history books publishers will follow the same fate.
Similarly,Travel and Computer books are in direct competition with mostly free online services. Who will buy a “how-to” computer book today? There are plenty of video tutorials explaining how to replace a hard drive or how to struggle with Photoshop? And let’s not even mention the Travel segment with tons of guides, reviews, price comparators and transactions services. As for the language sections of the bookstore, again, a simple query in Google can help with spelling, translation and grammar… Even the precious Roget’s Thesaurus is online, and rather efficiently so. I’ll just venture French Canadians did Roget one better: A company called Druide publishes a suite of applications for PCs, tablets and smartphones called Antidote. It’s an unusually clever combination of dictionary, thesaurus, quotations, etymology and more. I wondered for a while about the name Antidote — until I realized Quebecois saw the product as an antidote to… English. An old struggle.
The main eBooks casualty is likely to be bookstores. In a city like New York, in the Fifties, about 330 bookstores were in business. Now they are down to 30 or even less, laments André Schiffrin, former head of Pantheon Books, in his recent book Words & Money. Countries like France or Germany have laws that protect independent bookstores: From Bordeaux to Berlin, citizens are thankful for finding warmer and more relevant recommendations than the algorithm-based suggestions provided by Amazon. But how long will it last?