Readers are voting with their wallets: The eBook is winning. In the US, eBooks sales are now topping hardcovers for the first time (story in TechCrunch). Not everywhere of course. According to the Bowker Global eBook Research, the global market for eBooks is driven — in that order — by India, Australia, the UK and the United States. The laggards are Japan and (no surprise) France. The chart below shows the percentage of internet population reporting the purchase of a digital book over the last six months prior to the survey.
Interestingly, for most population samples, the level of purchases is not correlated with awareness. France enjoys the highest level of awareness but its internet population buys five times less eBooks than India’s. Once an Indian internet user finds an attractive digital book offer, he/she will most likely jump on it. This could lead to the following: in emerging countries, the cellular phone has become the main communication tool, leapfrogging the deployment of land lines; similarly, we could see eBooks bypassing print in countries like India where a large segment of the population is getting both literate and connected at a fast pace. (Actually, Bowker also reports that over 50% of respondents in India and Brazil are likely to buy an eBook in the next six months, ten times more than in France.)
If the rise of the eBook happily provides access to knowledge in emerging countries, the picture is more contrasted in countries with a long history and high penetration of printed books.
For instance, let’s have look at the ISBN registrations data for the United States. The chart below, drawn again from Bowkers (full PDF table here) shows a steady progression:
Between 2002 and 2011, in the US market, ISBN registration grew by 61% and reached 347,178 new titles. (A technical note: I’m only taking into account books that fall in an identified category, such as Arts, Biography, Business, etc. I’m excluding the huge segment labeled as nontraditional, which includes reprints, public domain, and titles printed on demand; this segment grew by over 3500% to 1.2 million registrations, which would distort the picture.)
We clearly see the impact of mainstream e-readers such as the Kindle and the iPad. Without any doubt, they contributed to the growth of registrations. (Unfortunately, ISBN counts does not provide a breakdown between print and digital.) Over the last nine years, some book publishing segments fared better than others. See the chart below:
Fiction is doing twice better than all other categories together. The Digital Book is the medium of choice for fiction: a) eBooks are set to be cheaper that print and price elasticity is now a proven fact, the cheaper a book is, the more likely a reader is to try it; b) e-commerce breeds impulse buying (cf the famous “One-Click® feature); c) readers can test the product more efficiently than in the printed world as Amazon and the iBooks Store make larges sample available for free. No surprise, then, to see the Fiction category holding well.
No surprise either in seeing the three worst performers also as prime victims of the digital era. History books have to compete with the vast trove of material available on the web; that’s the Encyclopaedia Britannica syndrome, going out of print after 244 years of duty, demoted by the 11-year-old Wikipedia. Like it or not, most history books publishers will follow the same fate.
Similarly,Travel and Computer books are in direct competition with mostly free online services. Who will buy a “how-to” computer book today? There are plenty of video tutorials explaining how to replace a hard drive or how to struggle with Photoshop? And let’s not even mention the Travel segment with tons of guides, reviews, price comparators and transactions services. As for the language sections of the bookstore, again, a simple query in Google can help with spelling, translation and grammar… Even the precious Roget’s Thesaurus is online, and rather efficiently so. I’ll just venture French Canadians did Roget one better: A company called Druide publishes a suite of applications for PCs, tablets and smartphones called Antidote. It’s an unusually clever combination of dictionary, thesaurus, quotations, etymology and more. I wondered for a while about the name Antidote — until I realized Quebecois saw the product as an antidote to… English. An old struggle.
The main eBooks casualty is likely to be bookstores. In a city like New York, in the Fifties, about 330 bookstores were in business. Now they are down to 30 or even less, laments André Schiffrin, former head of Pantheon Books, in his recent book Words & Money. Countries like France or Germany have laws that protect independent bookstores: From Bordeaux to Berlin, citizens are thankful for finding warmer and more relevant recommendations than the algorithm-based suggestions provided by Amazon. But how long will it last?
—frederic.filloux@mondaynote.com
Related columns:
- Ebooks: Defending the Agency Model Tweet(Last of a series — for a while.) Launching an antitrust probe against books publishers, as the US Department of Justice might do, can’t come at a weirdest time. In the two previous Monday Notes, we explained how Amazon is maneuvering itself into a position to dominate the entire book industry. The Seattle giant keeps [...]...
- Ebooks and Apps, same challenges Tweet(Second of a series) Last week, we looked at the ebook’s Giant Disruption. A new ecosystem in which Amazon eats publishers’ and agents’ lunch by luring authors into self-publishing. Today, we examine the new regime’s impact on book-making and distribution processes. The outcome will surprise few readers: Over time, the new book publishing business will [...]...
- Ebooks: The Giant Disruption Tweet(Part of a series) In the last twelve months, I’ve never bought fewer printed books — and I’ve never read so many books. I have switched to ebooks. My personal library is with me at all times, in my iPad and my iPhone (and in the cloud), allowing me to switch reading devices as conditions [...]...
- ebooks: trading digital rights, not files TweetThere are many reasons to be bullish for ebooks. On the device side, the iPad set the standard (rather high) and triggered an intense competition among manufacturers and operating systems providers. On the people side, just take New York’s subway, or a high-speed train in Europe. And we’ve seen nothing yet: tablets prices will go [...]...
- eBooks and Smartphones TweetUpdate: see a presentation of the Kindle2 here. Another look at an old, but not aging, topic: eBooks. There is visible agitation ahead of Amazon’s expected announcement, probably as you read this note Monday February 9th. Jeff Bezos is set to announce a new version of the Kindle eBook reader, let’s call it Kindle 2.0. [...]...
23 Comments
re: 30 bookstores in New York City, is that in all of the five boroughs and do you mean specialist bookstores? It seems very unlikely that a city of more than 8 million people would have so few – even accounting for the declines that Schiffrin describes. That would be one store per 277,000 New Yorkers.
Is more true to say that there are in fact more places to buy books now across the city, with various different places offering them, even though the specialist bookstore – always a difficult business to get right – is on its knees?
Great post. But the Britannica was on the skids before Wikipedia. It seems that what did them in was the fact that their scholarship was tied to a longer view of Truth than the 24-hour news cycle that came into being in the late 20th century. The World Book (with its annual update appendix and lower sunk costs for the user in quickly-obsoleted work) disrupted the Britannica before Encarta and Wikipedia administered the coup de grâce.
One small error — “France enjoys the highest level of awareness” is not true — you have to add the red and blue portions for total awareness, and in that respect, 6 countries shown (of 10) are more aware.
What is odd is that the three most aware (Spain, UK, and Germany) surround France. Is the French disdain for eBooks (evidenced by purchases) causing them to deny awareness?
Maybe French are waiting for the death of the pure, unadulterated evil that are DRM. I, myself, read tons of ebooks, but I can’t buy any because of these awful, atrocious, scandalous limitations. Except from a couple of books from a couple of reasonable editors.
On the end of bookstores: http://livepaola.wordpress.com/2012/04/09/towards-the-end-of-bookstores-that-terrible-sense-of-finality/
A Chinese girl educated since the age of 10 in France is watching mostly mangas on its iPhone.
Even if the array of translators is expanding there is still no easy way to have a more customized one, even in pivot languages like Ido.
I live in South Africa and buy Kindle books mainly because I can get them now as opposed to two weeks from now. I assume Indian readers could be similarly motivated.
In fact, I bought my first Kindle books before I had a Kindle. I had an urgent technical problem to solve and I bought two books from my desk, and had the solutions within hours.
Andre got it wrong. As noted above, he included all the tiny used bookshops, and also doesn’t take into account floor space. Surely the B&N at Union Square alone = 50 small specialty shops. This is the same faulty thinking that counts a 99 cent ebook as equal to a $25 hardcover. Ebooks are great – people reading is great, in any format – but let’s not faint at just a 25% market share, a % that has also flattened of late. All the ‘experts’ had ebooks at 40% or more by now. Everyone, Three Lives is thriving, Corner Bookshop is thriving, the Brooklyn indies are thriving. This is not an either/or world, much as you’d like it to be to fit your cutting edge assessments.
And if the answer lied in the price as you do suggest in title (but not in the article)? e-books, in France, are often just a little less expensive than p-books so why would you buy an ebook that you can never “see” or watch on your shelves unless you pay it only a few cents? Besides, your e-book has to be compatible with an e-reader be it Kindle or ipad exclusive of the others???
How can the authors claim that “without any doubt” increases in ISBN registrations are attributed to eBooks? They provide no historical context for the growth of ISBN registrations prior eBooks, and concede that their data cannot be separated between eBooks and print. This article smells of self-fulfilling prophecy. It’s quite possible that the authors’ claims are accurate, but they provide no empirical evidence to substantiate those assertions. Not to mention that their online survey will almost certainly be skewed towards eBook popularity due to their sample being internet-savvy and interested in participating in this survey; proof would call for a random sample and statistical analysis.
It’s official – ebooks are here to stay. As an author, ebooks have definitely been a godsend. If not for the ease of buying ebooks via ereaders (I see them as convenient as MP3s for music), I don’t think my publishing company would have sold nearly as many books.
I agree with Jon that although, at first glance, the article seems well researched, on a closer look “it smells of self-fulfilling prophecy”.
Please see this excellent video about the future of bookstores http://vimeo.com/42599889. If downtown Toronto has 10 in a space of a few blocks certainly NYC has more than 30 !!
I have been running the # 1 website for Jewish religious books, http://www.virtualgeula.com since 1997 and I have come to one conclusion:
Digital is great for research and books are great for reading..Long live both !
Authors publishing ebooks through Amazon’s and B&N’s direct publishing program don’t need an ISBN because they both assign their own unique identifier at no cost to the author.
Consumers purchase ebooks directly from their websites so there’s no advantage to having a registered ISBN with a listing in Books-in-Print. Ebook buyers can do a search in the Kindle and Nook ebookstores by entering the title, part of the title, the author’s name, or enter a topic and presto an array of corresponding ebooks appear instantly available to download.
Amazon and B&N sell approximately 95% of ebooks sold, the lesser vendors require ISBNs which makes it more difficult and costly for authors to sell ebooks through them—iBooks will only accept ebooks uploaded from a Mac computer. It’s ridiculous requiring a different ISBN for each ebook format. This is nothing more than a ploy to sell worthless numbers that are meaningless considering how ebooks are sold.
Enjoy often… John
Author of the popular series “Ebooks about Ebooks”
Ebooks are the wave of the future…This trend is emerging as a powerful force. Amazon has invested quite bit in thid belief…What with Kindle?
I am also an author of printed books, but have got four of my books on Ki8ndle too.
I run a personal empowerment membership site and have run a survey with my members and 95% say, they enjoy reading ebooks.
Thank You,
Dr.More
I have thousands of paper books gathered throughout my modest life, stashed away on a number of wooden bookshelves in my house, but as I age, one of the most important factors in my choosing e-books over p-books is that I can adjust font size. Another is searchability, especially for those books (like Robert Jordan’s Wheel of Time series) that come in long series. I usually find that persons who oppose e-book consumption usually do so out of an unwillingness to change and little else. Most people who finally break down and get a Kindle or an iPad (I find reading on my smartphone to be uncomfortable and something to avoid) will exclaim with some fervor, “why didn’t I do this sooner?”
And finally, the language Nazi in me can’t help but make this observation: this blogger needs to learn the difference between “fewer” and “less.”
Interesting. One thing I have found is that many people don’t really understand that an ebook is NOT a perfect substitute for a real book. There are upsides to ebooks such as low price and instant access, but there are also a number of downsides. You can check out my article on this at:
http://ezinearticles.com/?Ebooks-Are-Not-True-Substitutes-For-Real-Books&id=6131022
Just copy and paste that link into your browser.
Si l’ebook n’a pas démarré encore au Japon, c’est surtout parce que le support du japonais arrive avec ePUB 3 et n’était pas assuré avant.
Fred Lanta | EditingPlus
http://idpf.org/news/idpf-epub-3-conference-at-international-ebook-expo-tokyo
At the conference, IDPF will promote adoption of the latest version of the standard, EPUB 3, including Japanese language support.
The article was poorly written (e.g. France does not have the highest awareness, false subtitle, etc.) and the statistical analysis was selective. As said by C Andrews above, you cannot compare a 99 cent ebook to a $25 hardback. I am a publisher, and I’ll tell you where the money is at, its in paper. A nice graph to demonstrate this would be one that shows the major publishing companies and what percentage of their income comes through paper publishing vs. digital. I’ve looked at the stats before, and from memory, I think print was still something like 400% higher. Publishers won’t fully switch to an e-reader model if they can’t make money.
Everyone is desperately trying to put the final nail in the book coffin, but the reality is books are not going anywhere. The bulk of sales are still far and away old fashioned books. Yes ebooks are selling and hear to stay, but it seems the future of books isn’t as black and white as some want it to be – folks are still buying old fashioned books and will be for a good long while. It’s also just flat out wrong that ebooks sell more than old fashioned books.
Merci Frédéric de vos jolis compliments sur Antidote. Mais je tiens à rectifier pour le nom: ce n’est pas un antidote à l’anglais, mais bien aux difficultés du français. Les éditions pour Mac, Windows et Linux incluent en effet un correcteur grammatical. (Lequel serait aussi sur iPad si Apple relaxait un peu ses contraintes d’interopérabilité.) Quant à l’effet sur Antidote des ressources électroniques gratuites, nous n’avons pas subi le sort des encyclopédies de papier, heureusement. Nos utilisateurs nous demandent plutôt une présence accrue: ils aimeraient par exemple voir nos ressources linguistiques directement accessibles dans iBooks ou Kindle, au lieu des seuls dictionnaires anglais inclus en standard (sur iOS du moins).
Comic Sans = immediate loss of credibility.
The situation in Australia (where I live) is interesting in this regards. Believe it or not, books here are tariff protected, in a move designed to protect local authors through subsidies. Basically, books imported directly from the US and elsewhere are taxed. Books from the UK, which purportedly supports Australian authors, are not.
Every two years or so, the Australian Productivity Commission goes out and does a study that determines the tariffs are unfair and have a poor effect on consumers and society. A week later the publishers and various Australian writers’ associations break out their telephone books, call everyone influential, and the tariffs continue. It’s both ridiculous and corrupt. The end result is actually detrimental to Australian culture. Australian authors rely on funding from various cultural bodies, funded themselves by the tariffs. You know what kind of authors are funded by cultural institutions — really boring ones.
Partly this is also caused by the fear that Australians have of writing and other forms of expression. Sexually they are quite liberal — you can write about bonking all you want. What you can’t mention is how incredibly racist this culture is, still today, and how increasingly misogynistic it has become.
In response, Australians are driven to buying the latest books directly from Amazon. Add to that the relatively high Aussie dollar over the past three years — and you have an utter disaster for the local book selling industry.
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I’m definitely enjoying your blog and look forward to new updates.
Hello there! Do you know if they make any plugins to safeguard against hackers? I’m kinda paranoid about losing everything I’ve worked hard on. Any suggestions?
Hi! Do you know if they make any plugins to assist with SEO? I’m trying to get
my blog to rank for some targeted keywords but I’m not seeing very good results. If you know of any please share. Cheers!
I know this if off topic but I’m looking into starting
my own weblog and was curious what all is needed to get set up?
I’m assuming having a blog like yours would cost a pretty penny? I’m not very internet savvy
so I’m not 100% positive. Any recommendations or advice would be greatly appreciated. Many thanks
Hmm is anyone else encountering problems with the images on this blog loading? I’m trying to determine if
its a problem on my end or if it’s the blog. Any feed-back would be greatly appreciated.
I’m not sure why but this website is loading extremely slow for me.
Is anyone else having this issue or is it a problem on my end?
I’ll check back later on and see if the problem still exists.
Hello! I’m at work browsing your blog from my new iphone 3gs!
Just wanted to say I love reading through your blog and look forward to all your posts!
Keep up the excellent work!
Wow that was odd. I just wrote an very long comment
but after I clicked submit my comment didn’t show up. Grrrr… well I’m not writing all that over again.
Anyhow, just wanted to say great blog!
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