Or another killer product? Or, on the pessimistic side, a loser defensive move showing Apple’s fear of competitors such as Amazon, with its Kindle Fire, and Google’s 7″ Nexus tablet?
Recent leaks from purported sources inside Apple’s traditional suppliers have ignited a new frenzy of speculation. And not just from the usual blogging suspects — often better informed and more insightful than the official kommentariat. BusinessWeek and the Wall Street Journal both stuck their august necks out: The so-called iPad Mini will be launched this coming September.
On this matter, my own biases are on the record.
In an August 2009 Note titled “Apple’s Jesus Tablet: What For?“, I went as far as measuring the pocket on men’s pockets. As a result, I posited a 10″ (diagonal) tablet might not provide the same desirable ubiquity as a 7″ one that men could carry in a coat or jacket pocket, and women in a purse.
(Apple once came to a similar conclusion: the original Newton project started by Steve Sakoman in 1987 was a letter-size tablet. After he and I left, the screen size was cut in half and the actual Newton came out as a pocketable product.)
Five months later, on January 27th, 2010, Steve Jobs stood up and changed the personal computing world for the third time with the 9.7″ (diagonal screen size) iPad. The take-no-prisoners price ($499 for the entry model) was a big surprise. Another one, much less obvious, was Dear Leader’s unusually tentative positioning statement: ‘We’ll see how the iPad finds its place between the iPhone and a MacBook’. (I’m paraphrasing a bit but the tone was there.)
The iPad surprised many, Apple included and, at the beginning, was often misunderstood. I recall my initial disappointment at not being able to perform the same tasks as on my laptop. A huge number of normal humans of all ages thought differently. As we know now, the iPad grew even faster than the iPhone. Notwithstanding Microsoft’s clinging to its ossified PC-centric rhetoric, this turned out to be the true beginning of the Post-PC era.
This excited competitors around the world: You’ll find here a list of 76 tablets announced at CES. By the end of 2011, few had accomplished anything. One exception was Amazon’s Kindle Fire, its Xmas season numbers were rumored to reach more than 4M units, even 6M by some rumored estimates. This rekindled, sorry, rumors of a smaller iPad.
In October 2010, Jobs famously dismissed the idea: “7-inch tablets should come with sandpaper so users can file down their fingers.” None of the journalists present at the time had the presence of mind to ask him about the iPhone screen…
Tim Cook, Steve’s disciple put it well at the D10 conference last June when he affectionately (and accurately) called Jobs a great flip-flopper, citing examples of products features his then boss ended up endorsing after repeatedly nixing them.
In an April 2012 Monday Note, I discussed the possible end of Apple’s One Size Fits All for iPhones and, in particular, iPads. There, I linked to an A. T. Faust III post lucidly explaining how the original 1024 x 768 resolution could easily scale down to a 7.85″ tablet and achieve a nice 163 ppi (pixels per inch) resolution, the same as pre-Retina iPhones. This leads one to believe there is abundant (and inexpensive) manufacturing capacity for such pre-Retina displays.
A few questions.
First, developers. As we saw with iOS apps for iPhone and iPad, size matters, apps don’t scale. That hasn’t dampened the enthusiasm of developers for investing in app versions that take advantage of each device unique characteristics, as opposed to committing the cardinal sin of “It’s like the other one, only smaller/bigger”.
So, if developers believe a 7″ iPad would sell in large numbers, they’ll happily fire up Xcode, adapt their existing app, or write a new one. As for the belief in large unit volume for a 7″ device, the initial reception accorded to Google’s Nexus tablet shows there is potentially a lot of life in a smaller iPad.
(I ordered a Nexus tablet and will dutifully report. Last April, I bought a Samsung Note phablet and promised a report. Here it is: I’ll sell you mine for $50. A respectable product, I could definitely live with it. But, IMO, too big for a phone, too small for a tablet.)
Second, Apple was on offense. Now, competition succeeded in putting it on the defensive. While initial Kindle Fire sales were rumored to be huge, the same “sources”, checking on display supplier suppliers, now claim sales of Amazon’s tablet dropped precipitously after the Holidays. Amazon keeps mum, but is also rumored to prepare a slew of not one but several tablets for this year’s Xmas quarter.
As for the Nexus tablet, it isn’t shipping yet.
Instead of a defensive move, I think a 7″ iPad might be another take-no-prisoners move:
From the very beginning of the iPad and its surprising low $499 entry price, it’s been clear that Apple wants to conquer the tablet market and maintain an iPod-like share for the iPad. Now that Apple has become The Man, the company might have to adopt the Not A Single Crack In The Wall strategy used by the previous occupant of the hightech throne.
If this cannibalizes 10″ iPad sales, no problem, better do it yourself than let Google, Amazon or Samsung do it.
Lastly, the price/cost question. As you’ll see on this video, Todd Schoenberger, a Wall Street haruspex visibly off his meds, contends an iPad Mini is a terrible move for Apple, it would be a break with its single product version focus. Like, for the example, the one and only Macintosh, the one and only iPod. Also, he continues, an iPad Mini wouldn’t allow Apple achieve the 37% gross margin it gets from the bigger sibling.
No. If we’re to believe iSuppli, a saner authority on cost matters, the latest 32 GB 4G iPad carries a Bill Of Materials of about $364, for a retail price of $729. Even with a bit of manufacturing overhead, we’re far from 37% today. And, tomorrow, a smaller iPad, with a smaller display, a smaller battery, a correspondingly smaller processor would nicely scale down in cost from the “new” iPad and its expensive display/battery/processor combo.
To where? I won’t speculate, but Apple has shown an ability to be very cost competitive when using previous generation parts and processes. See today’s iPhone 3GS and iPhone 4 prices for an example.
I have no inside knowledge and quite a few inclinations: I’d love a pocketable iPad as much as I like small computers such as the defunct Toshiba Libretto and the lively 11″ MacBook Air.
If Apple comes up with a smaller iPad later this year, I think it’ll be a killer product.
Related columns:
- iPad Thoughts TweetLet me start with an important caveat. For this I’ll refer you to a post from my favorite high-tech blogger, David Pogue. “Don’t pass judgment until you’ve tried it!” Wise counsel: three years ago, industry sages “knew” Apple had no business making a phone. Normal humans voted with their wallet. Customers come in two categories: [...]...
- Wanna see my Japanese etchings — on my iPad? TweetThe frenzy surrounding Apple’s new product, the iPad, could give a new life to the old pickup line. I just got mine, that thing is an equal opportunity guy and chick magnet. Better than the proverbial (and fake) Ferrari car keys negligently dropped on the counter in a bar. Here, with the iPad, you can [...]...
- iPad 2 Launch Notes TweetA little over a year ago, on January 27th 2010, Jobs gave the first iPad keynote. (YouTube has many clips such as this one.) Back then, the tone was more searching than assertive. As a “third device” between a PC and a smartphone, between a MacBook and an iPhone, the iPad was looking for its [...]...
- Catching The iPad Wave: Seven Thoughts Tweet1. Design The iPad is all about design, and interface expectations. From a graphic design standpoint, with the iPad, the quantum leap is its ability to render layouts, typefaces, page structure. No more web HTML lowest common denominator, here. What comes out from an art director gets WYSIWYGed on the iPad — if the implementation [...]...
- Apple: The End Is Nigh TweetThe end of iPhone/iPad One Size Fits All, that is. So far, Apple has managed to sell more than 300M iOS devices using only a single size for the iPhone and another for the iPad. I’m becoming convinced this can’t last much longer. Soon, I believe, we’ll see a range of physically distinct iPhone and [...]...
36 Comments
I think its useful to think about a 7″ iPad as we think about MacBooks with different screen sizes – the range for MacBooks is now from 11″ to 15″ and the 13″ in the middle.
You can see the same sort of three screen size formula developing with the iPad/iPhone – smallest being the phone, biggest being the ‘professional’ iPad and the one in the middle being the ‘pro-sumer’ model that straddles the gap between the current iPhone and iPad.
I doubt that Apple is overly concerned about developers adapting to a new form factor – they can supply tools to help with any transition (Xcode etc etc). I think the real issue is price followed by volume.
Apple will happily kill products (remember the iPod mini) in order to outwit the competition and I suspect it will happily see some volume in the big iPad be ceded to a smaller sibling.
So its not a matter of if, but how. How to get the price/specs right in order to maintain margins and come in under the price of Kindles etc etc… That’s the challenge…
The heat and noise from the suppliers is probably right -but not the ‘how’ – that’s the piece only Apple can answer and we won’t see that until it unveils a 7″ product.
The debate over whether such a product can exist has been deafening in the past week, with sniping as if the Net had been turned into the streets of 1980s Beirut.
I keep coming back to this: If HP could create that smaller TouchPad Go without upsetting the existing apps, why couldn’t an iPad Mini slip in smoothly the same way?
I think it will happen and I don’t think many apps will need to be redone for it, thus astounding all the naysayers who I will mercilessly ridicule later this year.
We will see, not one, but two new iPads.
The long overdue touch for $200 and the new iPad mini $300, both at 163ppi.
The big addition compared to Nexus 7 and the Fire: The 8 mega pix iSight rear camera.
This will help apple fill up users devices and charge for iCloud. Don’t expect to see a delete all photos button on the new devices either.
Underneath that 7.85″ / 163ppi report is math dictating that Apple’s format makes the tablet approximately 40% larger than the “seven inch” Kindle. Not sure how pocketable it’ll be.
.
But while it’s not optimized for watching wide-screen video, as the Nexus & Kindle Fire are, it ought to be killer for primary school students. As a general purpose (i.e., not “content consumption”) tool, it might indeed be hugely popular.
Whoops, forgot to credit @PersianKitten for pointing out the screen math
There have been rumors of this since the first iPad.
I still don’t think it is very likely, or very significant in the current form.
The current rumors all say 7.85″ 4:3.
That really doesn’t change the usage model. It will be very fat. It won’t fit in enough pockets to matter, holding it the span of one hand like you can with 7″ 16:9 talbets will either be uncomfortable, or nearly impossible with small hands.
So what does it bring to the table? Not much except for a small price reduction. Important to note SMALL price reduction. 7.85″ 4:3 is significantly larger than 7″ (16:9/16:10) Android tablet screens and Apple will want decent margins, not the near 0% that Amazon/Google accept.
The only role I see for this device, is replacing the iPad 2, as Apples entry postition and adjusting for size, but maintaining magins, I don’t really see it selling under $350. Nowhere near the $200 of Amazon/Google.
So in the end, if this is true, I don’t see it really mattering.
“In October 2010, Jobs famously dismissed the idea: “7-inch tablets should come with sandpaper so users can file down their fingers.” None of the journalists present at the time had the presence of mind to ask him about the iPhone screen…”
Please listen to the original quote again for the proper context.
Steve was referring to a device’s ability to present complex “tablet interfaces”, which are larger and richer than phone interfaces. He noted that if you took an iPad and shrunk the screen, you would be left with insufficient resolution to present true tablet user interfaces.
Further, he said, if a manufacturer were to increase the resolution to compensate for the lower screen size, this would mean that tappable elements would become too small, and sit too close together to be appropriate for finger use. The sandpaper comment was made in reference to this latter point.
Of course, for the next year or so, Android tablet apps were but simple phone UIs, comically stretched to fit the larger screen size.
Now, it has been shown that a theoretical 7.85″ iPad with a 1024×768 resolution would provide an identical UX to that of the iPhone, in terms of tappable target size and distance between elements (albeit in a device that sits further from the face and has greater hand travel distance than the iPhone, and therefore more prone to gesture error.)
One might argue such a device would disprove Steve’s earlier comments, or maybe that Steve was simply being coy with his wording (as usual). Or, that this design does carry a usability tradeoff Steve was once unwilling to make, but that Apple is now prepared to make.
Gaah, my mind is failing me. Thank heavens for search: http://yfrog.com/z/h36j2np
As the graphic indicates, the rumored device is really quite different than some may be imagining.
The Apple rumors are always interesting, and of course there’s a market for a smaller iPad. Just like there’s a huge market that Apple moved into with the pay-for-play mobile services like Boost and Virgin. It will be interesting to see the new numbers for Apple when those deals start to show sales for the company.
As for the phablet, I’ll send you $50 to play with a new Android phone.
I believe it is Amazon that is creating these rumors.
ipad mini has 50% less area. with the same resolution
as ipad it would mean you have half the touch zone
for buttons. It won’t work.
If you scale the iphone resolution by 1.5, may it would work
but it would be hideous because you are doing exactly
what Android is doing. Now way would Apple do that.
There is no way Apple announces it to undermine their iphone 5
announcement.
Last year Gruber predicted another ipad announcement, none came.
Apple doesn’t need to sell an iPad for $200. They just need to sell one at a price low enough so that customers are ok paying a premium for the product they wanted in the first place and not a cheap knockoff.
This is what happened with the iPod: competitors came out for a slightly better price, some of them arguably better (touchscreen Zune?) but for $30-$50 extra you could get the real deal (iPod). Most people did, the rest is history. I suspect that an iPad starting at $300 would be enough to suck most oxygen out of the Nexus. Android phones are a different story because of the dynamics of carrier deals and carrier contracts. I think tablets are more like iPods. “No pricing umbrella” was Jobs mantra for the iPod. Give it time in the case for the iPad.
Can Apple sell one without giving up their margins? Do not overestimate Cook’s ability to corner components and streamline the production pipeline. I think they can.
FINDING THE RIGHT SENSE
* When the I Phone was launched, I was working at a (large) mobile operator.
I recall that competition was speechless in front of the touchscreen.
Some of my ex colleagues/partners may remember challenging, heated discussions with Apple’s competitors to explain how happy I was (and others) to use my fingers properly.
=> as opposed to a stylus
=> or the blackberry button to the right),
to flip through files, to push magic buttons, ..
My Hypothesis is that the I Phone revolution was boosted by delivering a better SENSE.
Subsequently, AA throughout the I Phone saga conquered meticulously the territory of our TOUCH Sense, changed our relationship with devices throughout the I Phone Family (now on Lion, etc..).
We compute by hand..in the post PC era.
* Likewise, the IPad, with Retina Display and so forth is positioned (and perceived) as the leader for quality of SIGHT/SEEING.
=> Density of the Pixels, Size of the original I Pad Screen,
=> resizing of apps, news apps being enabled,
=> ebooks being so easy to download read.
I have for example a friend, a poet, who admitted to me that he is rediscovering his library after downloading it…despite his 1000+ books in the house., readily available.
I am sure you have your own examples…
May a new version of the screen radically change ?? why not but…
* With SIRI Apple pushed an innovation now in our HEARING universe.
We start interacting by Voice….
=> but we still do not have a high quality sound..while listening to music without a helmet
=> In the office, I Phones on Speakerphones cannot be readily used for conf calls on loudspeaker.. and the microphones still turn us in HALs..
* My suggestion is therefore that a mini I Pad could make a tremendous success if it can be HEARD.
=> If we are able to perceive a better audio (more Hz, stereo, spatial sounds, .higher quality speakers.)
=> … coupled for example with a push within I Tunes of TRUE HIFI.. CD quality like…(downloading + Streaming)
=> and an easy wireless link with loudspeakers (Sonos type solutions)
=> and access to quality content about the music/show I am listening (meta data)
=> a supersized I Pod Touch if you want an analogy, my portable Stereo set.
or anything that Apple might think of to own now in the customers eyes simultaneously
TOUCHING HEARING SEEING..
Leaving Taste and Smell… to the Cook…
You may want to take a look at this. This guy shows how the various tablets compare to one another in size. The iPad mini is a lot bigger than the 7in Fire and Nexus tablets.
http://yfrog.com/z/h36j2np
By way of Brianshall.com
@Jimmy, that post is the one I linked and gave a bungled attribution to. It’s @TrojanKitten. Unless her photo & comments are 180˚ at odds with who she really is, she’s not “this guy.” Brian’s post did link to her, but consistent with the LAST exchange between the two, made what I thought was another of his too-frequently-coarse/thoughtless jibes.
Hi
This argument takes on a whole different look if we begging to see the forest for the trees. Think Different!
A iPod Touch changes everything
See these reasons
Releasing a 7.85” iPod Touch will provide Steve with plausible deniability
A 7.85″ screen will work, do the Math.**
Marketing an iPod tablet to children who will not have to “sand paper” their fingers, works
This can be done for a $249 – $299 price point*
The iPod touch needs a shot in the arm **(see chart)
Apple recently hired a sh-t load of gaming talent***
Gamers usually move up to window machines read (halo)
Apple only enters a market when they can own it.
An iPod will not cannibalize iPad sales*
Apple will kick Amazon right in the bollocks and protect its content sales*
Apple will produce this baby with a retina display and a A5 chip*
Apple will Market this to Mom’s looking for the benefits of an iPad *
An iPod still plays music & video* (content, content, content)
Apple could incorporate better sound
Apple will market to schools looking for a less expensive e-book reader*
Apple will create a line of accessories i.e.: docks, game controls and different colored sport grips etc.
Apple will blow Christmas Sales out of the water
The rumors neatly fall into place
@ Tony Vitale: I really like the idea of calling it The New iPod Touch, this would be fun and relevant.
@ Jacques Demaël: Great point — and neat word play!
@ Jeremy Pepper: Thanks, but no need to, I’m getting a new Galaxy phone and will report.
@ rd: You’re right, this could be vaporware. This said, the idea isn’t a scaled down iPad with smaller screen buttons and the like. The iPhone isn’t a scaled-down iPad or the iPad a scaled-up iPhone. In the latter case, scaled-up iPhone apps have no traction on the iPad.
@ Tony
I agree x00%.. with one question though.
. to make our new I Pod Touch a gaming platform, does AA own the right patents vs what Microsoft, Nintendo and the Wii have protected to make a difference in the way players issue commands , receive feedback, and game developers structure their narratives ?
@ Jacques
sticking with their current line of gaming apps would be sufficient, all indications are that these lower cost applications are becoming extremely popular, remember it is Moms who make this decision. Developers would be encouraged to move beyond them and incorporating game controls into a removable grip would be an idea. To answer your questions about patents I do not know but I’m sure someone here may
I can really see Apple with a 7inch device, but I can’t see them using the iPad name. The iPad is about doing stuff. The Kindle F and Nexus are about consuming stuff. They’re pumped up personal media players, and good ones, but not the productivity machines Apple wants us to think of the iPad as. Apple has a device that competes in this market and it’s called the iPod Touch. It’s just too small to compete anymore. The touch got left behind specs wise when the 4s came out and is well overdue for an update. The touch used to be an entry level IOS device but competitive contracts and the second hand market have squeezed it out. A larger device marketed as an iPod touch would perform the same as an iPad mini, but would exist in a different market, and drag the other 7inch tablets into that market as well. by branding a 7inch device as iPad Apple would be undermining the reputation of the full size iPad. By branding a 7inch device as an iPod touch Apple would be undermining every other 7inch device that tried to say it was a full blown tablet. 7inches is for fun, 10 inches is for work.
@ James Hurrel
James good comment, also remember that an iPad mini would cut into sales of the profitable iPad, where a New iPod Touch (thanks Jean-Louis) would increase revenue from a new product line.
@ Tony and James
to elaborate on the new I Pod Touch targeted at the younger market or mums I took my ruler and found
1) hat the Nintendo 3D S had a 7 inch diagonal (including both screens and the buttons)… talking about a device designed for early teenagers..
2) “traditional” CD/DVD covers have also a 7 inch diagonal… one could see the revival of artistic covers, used as wallpapers..
3) that notepads in restaurants have a 7 inch diagonal (including at the Fouquet’s I have one example right now on my desk)
4) That most “old fashioned” picture frames (those you put on your desk are around that size)… with a right cover to hold the new I Pod Touch upright I could see my friends…. their pictures intertwined with their Facebook activity
5) That a 7 inch diagonal is probably the best compromise to hold a rectangle in one’s palm while grasping it with his/her own fingers.. roughly calculated out of the following distribution of male and female hand size
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:HandAnthropometry.JPG
6 inch length * 4 inch width (rounded)
@ Jacques Demaël: Fascinating, 7″ the golden number, complete with a US Department Of Defense file with stats on human hand size variations!
@ James Hurrell and @ Tony Vitale: Cannibalize or be cannibalized. Cook isn’t shy about admitting iPad cannibalization of Mac sales by iPads, because the effect is even stronger on Windows clones. Same thing with a 7″ tablet: It will take some sales away from today’s iPad, and a lot more from competitors.
In this regard, it’ll be interesting to watch what Apple will say, if anything, about the iPad 2/iPad 3 unit mix.
@ Jean-Louis
That is true in most cases, however the margins on a smaller tablet are slim to non existent. It is important that does not happen , Apple can position and market correctly to do so. That’s why it would be more of a defensive move to protect younger buyers from becoming entrenched in the Android ecosystem and lost forever. I see profit coming from content and peripheral business and of course the halo effect. @james I am not sure that a 7″ tablet works without Apple requiring developers to rewrite for a new screen size.
See my post here along with other unique topic comments
http://www.talkmactech.com/core-posts/class-assignment-solving-ipad-mini-dilemma-apples-different-philosophy/
@Tony
I agree, Developers would need to re-write, but they’re probably going to have to for the next iPhone anyway. A slight lack of optimised apps might be an issue to start with, but that’s more a problem if it’s branded as an iPad as people expect all the apps with that. Marketed as an iPod touch (or some other name) and pushed as a media/games playing device an initial lack of apps wouldn’t be such a problem. Apple would certainly get a few big name developers on board to have good optimised apps out of the gate. How many games did Vita or 3DS have at launch? Apple could easily better those offerings with many more games to follow, as well as all your previously purchased films and music available straight away. When the units started to shift developers would quickly adapt, as the iPad has shown.
@james, that might work!
@jean-louis & James
Let’s not forget that the success of the 7″ tablet is far from guaranteed, Kindle’s experiment is a mixed bag and the nexus has not even shipped never mind sold. Apple still has time for review before they announce in September.
As far as creating a hand held gaming platform having all the benefits of an iPad (minus the size) I think this would be a new platform Apple could get behind big time. preserve their credibility with regard to optimiun functional size for tablet and revive Apples only decreasing product line.
@ All: Great summation of iPad Mini questions by John Gruber http://j.mp/NelqBi
Jean,
It’s all a matter of perspective, trying to view this from an iPad Mini view blocks the view. If we wipe out that concept from our mind we no longer have to wade thru all those detailed analysis. Start fresh think where would Apple look to next to increase its business. The iPod line has been in a steady decline, the advent of gaming on the iPod touch is exploding, the iPod line is important to Apple as a gateway drug to Apple’s ecosystem, it leads to a Mac, an iPhone and the iPad as well as all of that content coming into the home and then people bringing them into the office. If Apple wanted to refresh that line, what would they do? Create a new product that would capture that demographic and conquer and dominate a business that Apple has always been week in. The gaming business! Just the way Apple likes it
@Jean-Louis I admit that it was a two-fold reason: my phone died and need to get a new one, and was a Be fan-boy in college so the cool factor of having your own phone was too great to pass up.
Apple owns a relatively sizeable 10″ tablet market. I would be surprised if they risked blowing that up to be possibly the leader of a less profitable 7″ market. I could see resuscitating the iPod with a bigger Touch though. Regardless, Nexus 7 buzz must be freaking Apple out.
The revised iPod touch will be the “new iPod”. Touch is incorporated into everything, so doesn’t need to be in the name. The unadorned iPod name hasn’t been used since 2007, so there’s little likelihood of confusion.
If Apple releases a size between iPod and iPad, I think it’s either a new name or (more likely) an iPod variant. iPads may eventually be larger, but won’t be smaller than 9.7″.
If a 9.7″ iPad is called a 10″ tablet, why would a 7.85″ iPad be called a 7″ tablet and not a 8″ tablet? And would it not make sense for Apple to use the same naming system as for MacBooks ( Air and Pro)?
The new iPad 10″ and the new iPad 8″.
That way they stick to their new naming convention for the iPad ( not called the iPad 3).
If they wanted to price it aggressively they might go like this
$249 iPad 8″ wifi only 8Gb
$299 iPad 8″ wifi only 16Gb
$399 iPad 8″ 4g and wifi 16Gb
$499 iPad 8″ 4g and wifi 32Gb
$499 iPad 10″ wifi only 16Gb
Etc.
And drop the iPad 2 from the lineup.
The iPod touch might have to be reduced $50
The iPad 8″ marketing could be completely focused on games, reading, education and other content consumption while the 10″ ads would focus more on all roundedness.
Let’s not forget that the rumored bigger screen iPhone 5 will also require app developers to adjust their apps so iOS 6 xcode will need to address the issue of screen size and resolution more significantly.
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