1) APAC revenues: went from year ago $6.332B to $7.887B (+25%)

2) Greater China revenues: From TC on the CC, they are about 2/3 APAC revenues. If we assume similar ratio for year ago 3Q, then Greater China grew from ~$3.851B to ~5.7B (+48%).

3) APAC-Greater China revenues: If we then remove Greater China from APAC, this implies that the rest of APAC was flat to contracting YoY.: $2.481B to $2.187B (-12%)

4) Mainland China revenues: TC also said Mainland China iPhones grew 100% YoY. Assuming majority of revenues in Mainland China are iPhones…

Conclusions?
=> While Mainland China is still near triple digit-growth, the rest of Greater China (HK, Taiwan…) and rest of Mainland China product sales (outside of iPhones) are bad enough, such that overall Greater China growth was only 48% on avg. If you take TC at his word that they see no signs of sales lagging in Mainland China, then the blame falls on HK/Taiwan/etc. How much of Greater China revenues come from Mainland vs HK/Taiwan? 70:30? 80:20? Either way, it looks bad for HK/Taiwan.

=> And the rest of APAC went negative (-12% give or take) such that overall APAC YoY growth was only 25%. Looks bad for rest of APAC.

Questions:
- was this demand trend falloff foreseeable?
- how bad will APAC (minus Mainland) numbers be in Q4/onwards?

Good to have you back. Hope FF is doing well.

-R

real issue is Apple is in another transition from non-Retina to Retina
at the same time as changing from LG to Sharp.
Apple can’t use Sharp until contract with LG runs out.
then there is Haswell waiting in the wings. with these two
things, I believe Apple can double the Macs it sells per quarter.

Also Apple is attacking Win8 with the new Genius commercials.

India’s Aircel just started selling iphone 3gs at Rs 9,999
with 1 year plan for Rs 297.
So basically selling for $250 unlocked no contract price
in non-contract countries is coming.

* Margins 38.5%, down from 42.8%: Apple adjusted it margins to match career tactics, but will blow past the estimates due to the new iPhone launch. Careers cannot control demand when a new iPhone launches.
.

* Store revenue grew by 17%: People are buying stuff online and going into stores to get them fixed. Apple is starting to showcase the genius part, rather than the store part in their TV ads.

I think Apple overestimate iphone Sales in China by 2M.

ipad came in lower then it should have. margin is lower 2 quarters in a row for it.
so most of the sales is for K12 or lower spec version bought by corp.

As for the future, the retina MacBook Pro is a glimpse of this. If you have the funds, it’s an early peek at what the next three years will yield. The display is difficult to appreciate unless experienced and early buyers (like me) are being fleeced – except that it will hold it’s own for several years. The tech will migrate to 13 and 11″ portables. Meanwhile, the success or failure of Windows 8 will define competition. Chrome/Android are not relevant (yet). Moreover, in the tablet space, not only is Apple the only company continuing to make money, the floor of the OEMs has just been dropped by Google itself. This is surely a somewhat desperate attempt (and recognition) by Google that the Android tablet market remains moribund and that it’s now or never to break Apples deadlock (same conclusion was reached by Microsoft). Meanwhile, Apple moves forward not by slashing prices but by adding value through the ecosystem. It’s a long term bet but it is also the action and luxury of a front-runner.