On August 15th, The Wall Street Journal published yet another story about Apple’s imminent invasion of the TV business. According to people who are “familiar with the matter”, the Cupertino company is…
…in talks with some of the biggest U.S. cable operators about letting consumers use an Apple device as a set-top box for live television and other content…
The article has triggered an explosion of comments, speculation, purported leaks, and ”channel checks”. After the enormous success of the iPhone and the iPad, is TV going to be Apple’s Next Big Thing?
(If you Google “Apple iTV”, you get about 32M hits; “Apple TV” yields 700M. Curiously, Microsoft’s Bing gives you only 11M and 250M. I don’t know what to make of the disparity between the Google and Bing numbers, but a cursory look shows more useful results on Bing. As we know, this now depends on who’s asking and when.)
The topic excites writers and readers alike for good reason: We’re all frustrated with TV as it is, and we have a vague, hopeful sense that a disruptor such as Apple (or Google) could break through the obstacles that have been constructed by operators (cable/satellite) and content owners (studios).
Wouldn’t it be nice to get What we want, When we want it, Where we want it, on the device we like without having to deal with brain-dead set-top box program guides and channel bundle rip-offs?
The precedent has been set: CBS Interactive offers the excellent $4.99 60 Minutes iPad app. NBC, ABC, and other networks have an array of separate apps for news, sports, and entertainment. But this is sliced and diced content, carefully picked and edited, not the real What When Where thing.
For example, where can I get the Olympics opening ceremony? I missed it, I hear it was TV Worth Watching. NBC’s site? No. I even checked the NBC Olympics Live Extra app… no joy. YouTube has a few snippets here and there, but I want the whole thing, beginning to end, the excess and the embarrassment. I’ll sit through an ad or two, if need be, or, better yet, offer me a one-click payment so I can skip the ads.
Why is this so difficult?
First, there’s the fear factor: Having seen how Steve Jobs dominated the music distribution industry, TV studios and operators aren’t eager to let Apple hop into the driver’s seat. The major players foresee a significant drop in ARPU (Average Revenue Per User) if viewers are allowed to unbundle channels, if we can go ”à la carte”, if we can point, click, and pay our way into the TV universe. The impression that Apple “destroyed” the music industry conveniently omits what pirates were doing when iTunes came onto the scene and provided a clean, well-lighted distribution channel, but the fear remains.
Then there’s the complexity: Today’s TV revenue stream, the money sucked out of our pockets, divides into a maze of rivulets that flow to operators, distributors, content owners, and producers. Music is relatively simple compared to TV…but even so, remember how long it took for the Beatles to become available on iTunes? Nine years.
And is it even worth it to Apple? Although Apple TV sales keep growing — +170% year-to-year for the last quarter — the numbers are still relatively small, only 4 million units for FY 2012 so far. At $100 apiece, such volume doesn’t “move the needle”, it’s immaterial when compared to iPhone and iPad revenue and profit.
Still, are these persistent Apple TV rumors totally unfounded?
The answer lies in Apple’s one and only business model: hardware revenue.
Everything else Apple does — software, iTunes, Genius Bars — only exists to push up hardware sales and profits.
With this in mind, today’s Apple TV does more than just deliver Netflix and iTunes movies: It’s a neat part of the ecosystem, it makes Macs (now with AirPlay), iPhones, and iPads more valuable. Your iPhone vacation pictures will show quite nicely on the family TV. Go to a conference room equipped with Apple TV and make your Keynote presentation from your iPhone, iPad, or Mac, no cable required. (PowerPoint doesn’t run on iPads, but a PDF output works just as well.) With the latest 10.8 rev (Mountain Lion) of OS X, all content available on the Web can now appear on your TV.
There’s another, longer term strategy at work: At some point, the growing Apple TV installed base will gain enough mass to become a viable distribution channel. (The same would apply to a successful Google TV effort.) When this happens, someone will crack. ESPN will offer its fare as apps — some free with ads, some paid-for without intrusions — and the others will follow.
It’s a nice theory, it plays into Apple’s ability to deploy the iOS platform more fully on Apple TV, to offer a UI miles ahead of today’s set-top boxes. But in order to matter, the product line will eventually have to reach revenue in the $100B range. What sort of numbers can an Apple TV bring in?
Let’s start with a modest $100/month cable bill. What portion does Apple want? We see the 30% number bandied around, I’m skeptical such a percentage would fly but let’s go with that for the order of magnintude experiment. If we look into a distant future, a time when Apple has 100 million TV subscribers (today, in the US, we have about 50M cable and 35M satellite TV customers), that’s $3B/month, about $40B per year in recurring revenue. If we assume that the new-fangled Apple TV hardware fetches $300 per box, we get an additional yield of $30B — stretched over the number of years needed to reach 100M customers.
This leaves us with difficult questions: How fast can Apple get to 100 million Apple TV-equipped homes? Will operators and content owners/distributors “give” Apple a $30 ARPU? How often will customers be willing to upgrade their TVs (certainly not as often as the iPhone/iPad)? Can Apple broaden its business model to include content and services?
I hope so, I’d love to throw away my ugly set-top box, but I have trouble seeing a path to that happy event. Apple might just continue to improve the black puck, open it to iOS app developers and, in Tim Cook’s words, see where it leads the company.
As for a full-fledged 50″ TV set…I don’t think so. The computer inside would be obsolete well before the display goes dim. This seems to favor a separate Apple TV box.
Who knows, all this agitation might scare TV providers into providing us with better hardware and services…
(See previous Monday Notes on the subject here, here, here, and here.)
Related columns:
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- The Apple Licensing Myth TweetLegends die hard. In the pre-Web days, they got printed and reprinted, told and retold and so became official, like spinach being good for you because it held the iron your red cells needed. After decades of the disgusting veggie inflicted upon young kids – I remember, a scientist went back to the bench and [...]...
- Apple: The End Is Nigh TweetThe end of iPhone/iPad One Size Fits All, that is. So far, Apple has managed to sell more than 300M iOS devices using only a single size for the iPhone and another for the iPad. I’m becoming convinced this can’t last much longer. Soon, I believe, we’ll see a range of physically distinct iPhone and [...]...
- Apple: Q2 Thoughts TweetThere was a time when clever individuals could sustain themselves by exploiting people’s ignorance and anxiety. Augurs studied the flight of birds to explain the will of the gods; haruspices practiced divination by inspecting the entrails of sacrificed animals. For fear of bursting into uncontrollable laughter, so the joke goes, the fortune tellers studiously avoided [...]...
- Apple: Three Intriguing Numbers TweetNo Monday Note last week: I was in The Country of Sin, enjoying pleasures such as TGV trips across a landscape of old villages, Romanesque churches, Rhône vineyards — and a couple of nuclear power plants. All this without our friendly TSA. Back in the Valley, Apple just released their latest quarterly numbers. They weren’t [...]...
51 Comments
Very interesting article — by far the best I’ve seen so far on Apple TV.
One thing nagged me as I read it though — the subscriber numbers seem a little on the high side to be realistic. This venture has got to be US only, right? Because of that, 100 million customers just seems like an impossibly large number. How can Apple grab every single one of the current cable and satellite customers, plus find 15M new ones too? I think 25M would be more realistic (yet still optimistic), for $10BN/year revenue and $10BN hardware revenues. Maybe 100M subscribers might be possible if these TV packages (apps?) were available to iPhone and iPad users too (and worldwide), without needing an Apple TV? That could be disruptive…
I remember the music business when Steve Jobs negotiated with MPEG-LA to get the licenses he needed to start iTunes. It was a mess. Today, TV networks like AMC and ESPN and independent producers like Frank Darabont or Joss Whedon are as en fuego as they have ever been. (I seem to remember Bill Goins as my go-to Apple TV guy at the time.)
I just don’t see any programmer doing anything to break up syndication windows, which is the crux of their business. If anything, they would be more likely to encourage Apple to follow Netflix’ lead in bidding $$$ to create a window of exclusivity for Apple users.
Very provocative article! I for one would love to see it happen.
Some other equally speculative articles suggest pieces that fit into this mix, and may make it more feasible.
Apple buy Sprint and/or Clearwire to get its network, spin off or segregate the messy voice parts, and build up the wireless for all-digital phone/TV network. Use that as basis of its own TV distribution system
http://thenextweb.com/apple/2011/05/22/what-should-apple-buy-with-their-billions-their-own-carrier/
http://www.kansascity.com/2012/07/31/3734960/hows-this-for-a-fantasy-deal-apple.html
Apple buy TiVo, which already has set top boxes and agreements with cable companies.
http://news.cnet.com/8301-13579_3-57495598-37/apples-set-top-box-cure-a-tivo-acquisition/
mvh
Apple has already a base with around 100 million users and this is the iPhone/iPad/iPod touch base. What people fail to realize is that Apple has already launched a TV and it has several names: iPhone, iPad and iPod Touch. Add a software to pump TV channels in realtime to these beauties, add this module to AppleTVs, launch big TVs and Apple starts firing on all cylinders immediately. This is the fast way and will take industry with pants down.
“Will operators and content owners/distributors ‘give’ Apple a $30 ARPU?”
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Only if Apple helps them with lock-in, or with blocking otherwise-more-threatening competitors, I’d guess. To get critical mass of distribution power, I’d assume they go with partners such as Verizon & AT&T, which already have bundled arrangements.
@Brian, I’m pretty sure I barely understand all the players, deals and so forth at the producer/distribution level.
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But your post raises the interesting possibility: if Apple were to actually bid for competitive content deals similar to what the cable companies do, wouldn’t that allow producers to get more money — both from competition for shows and the opportunity to sell the same content twice?
> The impression that Apple “destroyed” the music industry conveniently
> omits what pirates were doing when iTunes came onto the scene and
> provided a clean, well-lighted distribution channel, but the fear remains.
It’s not the pirates, its the fact that the music industry stopped developing new talent, and rested on their laurels, pumping out one recycled Britney/Madonna clone after another.
This past week, I received a survey from Time Warner Cable about a possible new set top box replacement device they might offer. It’s black and round, about the size of a hockey puck. At first glance, you might think it was their response to the TV. What they didn’t mention was 1) the software and 2) how complicated is the remote. I told them in the comment section that the software and remote have to be in the same league as Apple’s, or it’s no sale.
Only thing that Apple can get out Cable/Content companies is what XBox already has which is not much.
If you want to see Olympics then you will have to get iPlayer app. BBC has full content for the next 6 months. Obviously you have to live in UK or get proxy DNS
to bypass the country block.
Apple has decide whether it wants to disrupt the TV business by being YouTube
or be just another cable outlet with premium content. No of which is tenable.
I for one want foreign content like BBC, NHK which would really disrupt US Media companies but Apple doesn’t want to disrupt the main source of govt. propaganda no matter how many cord cutters are leaving cable monopoly.
The reason why the TV industry doesn’t want to go a la carte is NOT that Apple will end it as we know it. THAT’S ALREADY HAPPENING, folks. Once you go a la carte, all those terrible reality shows and infotainment people will essentially go bankrupt. No longer feeding from the cable teet, they are screwed.
We viewers really don’t care.
From an old business associate and still friend of mine, by email:
US ARPUs are ridiculous, and the FCC hasn’t helped. It’s clear that Google and Apple would both like the $60B or so of ad revenue that they’re missing, not to mention the subscriber fees. Google is a bold experiment; I would sign up for their Kansas City service in a heartbeat, albeit that I don’t live there.
I wanted to mention one comment, though: regarding Apple TV built into a TV set. I agree that the impedance mismatch between the expected life of a TV and the expected usefulness of a computer is enormous. There are three primary ways around this:
1. A removable device that provides the intelligence (and security). The CI+ standard provides a slot for just this in much of the civilized world, but, of course, the US resists. The so-called CAM (conditional access module) provides life in the old PCMCIA form factor, and is very popular in places like Italy, where you recharge the card at a convenience store to pray some more at the altar of soccer. Yes, this is a kludge, but it beats having a nasty piece of shiny plastic sitting around near your TV. Instead, it copulates with the TV.
2. Driving the TV from a companion device, which provides a UI on its screen and/or on the TV screen. 1080p is 1080p, so the TV can handle the video signal for its entire life. The UI comes from the companion device via wi-fi, which is beginning to work well enough for this. I suspect that Apple is thinking along these lines, and voice control makes this potentially more accessible. The only need to upgrade the TV will be to go to 4K, and then, maybe 8K. At 8K, it’s literally like looking through a window (assuming that the content is produced with that in mind….no panning/zooming, because you don’t need it), so that may define the endpoint, just like 384KHz/32-bit may define the ultimate endpoint in audio. There is no Moore’s Law for the human body, and so various technologies move from “impossible” to “trivial” as Moore’s Law does its thing on the computer systems. For example, even the highest-quality audio streams are dwarfed by network, CPU and storage capabilities today. Video is next.
3. Driving the entire UI from the “cloud” (oh, I hate using that term). This requires significant head-end upgrade, but eliminates the bane of our existence: the STB. As you no doubt already realize, that’s how the web works already! Having everything from the operator head-end turns all operators into YouTube, with better UI and smoothness, even if they still use amortized satellite multicast or coax to deliver some of the content.
My bet is on (2) in the short-term, and (3) in the long-term. Many [...] disagree, because the internet won’t scale. I’ve learned never to bet against TCP/IP or the hunger for bandwidth.
@ Adrian O’Connor: You’re right, my numbers are aggressively “rounded up”, just a tought experiment, an attempt to look at the likely order of magnitude.
10M subs isn’t interesting for Apple, 1 billion is unthinkable.
@ Brian Hayashi: Yes, Jobs did an incredible favor to everyone by getting those licences and ushering a new era in music distribution/consumption. Unfortunately, he’s not with us anymore — and the TV problem is much, much more complicated. But I have hope…
@ MIke: Indeed, TV viewing has changed, some (lots?) has moved to other screens. I wonder what connecting a Mac to a TV (Mountain Lion Airplay) will do as all Wen content now plays on the “big” screen.
@ Walt French: I see Amazon getting into the content _creation_ business. To me, this looks like a bad move, a troubling bizmodel fork. I don’t see Apple strayin from the Rightful Path
, that is the hw business model.
Why would “new-fangled Apple TV hardware [fetch] $300 per box”?
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What could/would be added to the existing little Apple TV box that would be worth an extra $200?
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A BluRay disc drive and/or a hard drive? Both of those would be going backwards, as Apple is focused on network distribution and streaming. A big chunk of Flash RAM to hold recorded content for DVR capability? In Apple’s new iCloud world of storage that’s also going backwards. A TV tuner and/or cable TV decoder? That’s not a $200 cost, for one, and for two the cable market is maybe 10 times as fractured and regional, worldwide, as the cell phone market, or not more so. A satellite TV decoder and small satellite dish? Well, that’d justify the $200 price increase, but it’s just not feasible or attractive to too many people.
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Yes, Apple’s business model is to make their profits on hardware, but thinking that that justifies a reason for pricing some “new-fangled Apple TV hardware” at $300 is putting the cart before the horse.
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One of Apple’s problems with the Apple TV, and the TV business in general, is that there simply isn’t a good “in” for Apple’s traditional model of “high profit on hardware, low profit on software and content.” If Apple were any OTHER company, they’d not only be throwing tons of money and other resources at trying to make content deals and go after recurring revenue customer subscriptions, they’d have started doing it a long time ago. A different company would’ve thought they could start with making razor-thin margins, or even losing money at the outset (see Microsoft’s Xbox) in order to build up a customer base that they’d hope to either upsell later, monetize via ads, or some other form of bait and switch.
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Apple is indeed still most likely trying to (continue to) make deals with content providers/owners. I think it’s more likely they’re doing this to try to ease into adding more real-time and/or on demand content to their existing products, though, like the current Apple TV’s apps for NHL GameCenter, MLB.TV, NBA.com, Hulu Plus, and The Wall Street Journal Live. This will be primarily to improve their overall product ecosystem, and secondarily to keep competitors from doing an end run around them, just like the iTunes Music Store was created to sell more iPods and Macs and keep Microsoft from getting a lock on DRM-protected legal music sales.
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The existing 1080p Apple TV is quite competent and capable all on its own, with the benefits of software updates, of providing the majority of what would be needed for any future Apple television interface/experience. As a bonus the functionality of any software updates to the Apple TV could be made simultaneously to iPhones, iPads, iPod Touches, and Macs.
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What I wouldn’t be surprised at is if Apple’s current discussions with content providers are aimed at deals that would provide real-time streams of TV shows, rather than the 24 hour delayed downloads from the iTunes Store. Then users get PVR-like abilities by “recording” their shows to iCloud network storage on Apple’s servers, rather than a local drive. At the same time this essentially becomes “on demand” programming. Since it’s not actually recording a video signal from the user’s end this does mean that they wouldn’t be able to “record” local broadcasts this way though, unless/until Apple makes deals with local stations. What the networks get out of this deal, aside from some direct revenue from Apple, is their content still has the ads embedded in it (with the local ads replaced by additional national ads), and the streams/”recordings” count directly towards their live ratings. For the end user the price and positioning would be similar to iTunes Match, though probably with a monthly fee rather than a yearly one.
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What Apple gets out of this is the added value to all their devices that will then have “live TV” anywhere, at least of major network content (and as long as they have a Internet connection, of course). Over time, as with Apple’s music deals and their movie deals, this would expand to additional network providers, cable operators, and larger local markets.
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Note that this would be almost an exact inverse of an iPad, iPhone, iPod Touch, or Mac with OS X Mountain Lion streaming (mirroring) its screen to a TV via AirPlay and an Apple TV.
JLG –
On a sidenote, has anyone since you wrote this article pointed you to the Olympics Opening Ceremony? I would really like to see the whole thing as well, and I cannot get hold of it anywhere.
-Kevin
@ Lun Esex: Where do I get the $300 price from? Good question indeed.
This MN is just an exercise, an essay in the original sense, an attempt to figure out things.
Price should not be related to cost but to what the market will accept. Hence the low price of today’s black puck.
I rechecked Comcast: the HD + DVR set-top box costs an extra $16.95 per month above the “free” basic “digital” box. Times 24 months that’s a little above $400. I could have used $400, or consider Apple gives you a discount for paying up early.
That said, I’m still wonderinh if Apple wants to make money principally on the hw and keep building services, content, an entire ecosystem to push hw margins up because customers like the experience. Or would Apple want to _really_ make money (as opposed to offset costs – mostly) on content?
So far I bet on the continuation of the iPod/iPhone/iPad biz model.
And I question the size of the Apple TV opportunity as a $100B Next Big Thing.
@ All: An interesting comment (by email) from an old Apple friend: Look at the Roku device implemented as the dongle plugged in the back of the TV: http://www.engadget.com/2012/01/04/roku-unveils-streaming-stick-squeezes-box-into-mhl-dongle/
I have a less functional (wifi only) plugged in the back of my LG HDTV.
@ JLG:
“I’m still [wondering] if Apple wants to make money principally on the hw … Or would Apple want to _really_ make money … on content?
So far I bet on the continuation of the iPod/iPhone/iPad biz model.
And I question the size of the Apple TV opportunity as a $100B Next Big Thing”
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Indeed, these are the BIG QUESTIONS about Apple’s steps regarding the television market. This is clearly why Apple TV has remained a “hobby” for Apple, even though it’s been around exactly as long as the iPhone (Steve Jobs announced they’d be taking Apple TV pre-orders at the same January 2007 keynote where he announced the iPhone).
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I personally don’t think there’s space in the television market for an Apple product that uses their traditional high-margin hardware model. Remember that the original Apple TV was a $300 product, but it didn’t gain any significant degree of consumer acceptance until its second generation at a $99 price. Taking the price back up to $300 (or higher) would be going backwards in this regards.
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Consumers wouldn’t see adding cable box/DVR functionality as enough justification for a higher $300+ price, because they’d be comparing it to the “free” basic “digital” box they can get with a cable subscription. And upfront outlays for HD+DVR capabilities don’t compare favorably in their minds with costs amortized over the life of a subscription. See: A) iPhone sales subsidized on contract vs. full price without contract, and B) TiVo’s woes trying to sell pricey add-on TV boxes.
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As for Apple focusing on content as their revenue source in the television market, consider that Apple has been the #1 retailer of music for… how long, now? Yet it’s but a tiny slice of their overall revenue.
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So I don’t think Apple is actually *aiming* at television as the “Next Big Thing,” and I agree that $100B as a target for that market is questionable.
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Instead, I think Apple’s plans regarding television are more like how the iTunes Music Store was a defense against others making a big business legally selling music online that was incompatible with Apple devices, and how iTunes Match is now a defense against streaming services. i.e. I think their plans are more along the lines of making sure that they’re on at least even footing with any competitors in the television space, and making sure that no one *else* will come in and make really big profits out of selling hardware and/or subscriptions. What’s left after that is TV ad revenue, which Apple doesn’t really want to get involved in, and Google certainly wants a piece of, but the TV networks hold closer to their chests than anything.
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(Also note parallels with Apple’s iAd service being not so much intended to become its own big revenue stream, but more to blunt Google’s mobile ads business.)
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P.S. I wish the comments feature on your blog had a “Preview” button.
For a good example of “…sliced and diced content, carefully picked and edited, not the real What When Where thing …”, as JLG says, you need look no further than a currently existing app on Apple TV, the MLB app. The content in this app, MLB.tv (even the Premium version) is rife with blackout restrictions designed to prevent cannibalization of network and local broadcasts of baseball games. Some specific blackout restrictions:
- Regular Season Local Live Blackout – all home (and away!) games of your local ball team are blacked out, regardless of whether that game is being broadcast in your local area. Determined in part by IP address.
- Regular Season Weekend U.S. National Live Blackout – almost all weekend games are blacked out.
- Postseason Live Blackout – all postseason games, including any play-in game, the division series, the LCS and the World Series, are blacked out. You can subscribe to Postseason.tv (for an additional fee), but this is really just an alternative video feed, not a real ball game broadcast.
These restrictions apply mostly to US/Canada viewers, so this seems one of the few cases where viewers outside the US get a better deal.
So if this is a representative example of how content owners are going to make their content available on devices like Apple TV, it could be slim indeed, as long as they continue to give priority to regular broadcast/cable TV.
Seems that Cook recently reiterated the formula that Apple would look where it had unique talents to bring.
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To me, that says hardware indeed, but hardware is too easily copied. Somehow or other, you need software — and in TV, that means content — as a dongle.
cannot sustain its “hardware only” business model for long. Moore law is continuing to drive down device prices and a $200 device will soon become good enough.
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’s has been moving towards a subscription model. iCloud will be the marque service. Job’s when introducing iCloud “If you don’t think we’re serious about this you’re wrong.”
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It will look a little more like Amazon Prime than YouTube. Get all those tv episodes on Hulu, movies on netflix, iCloud sync and Music match for $50/mth.
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Now that Youtube is not included in iOS6, look for the iTV app for your iDevice. Thats right iTV is not a device, it’s a subscription app!
If you can close your eyes for a minute and forget about regulatory capture (of FCC, FTC, DoJ, etc), a few rule tweaks could start the landscape to change at first slightly but inevitably more significantly as time goes by. Then you’ll have to open your eyes, unfortunately.
dear mr. gassee,
my posting have nothing to do with this topic, so i have to apologize for my short offtopic.. but i was a beos user from 1998 – 2004, have buyed this fantastic os in october 1998 (R3.2) until i’ve had your upgrade 4.5 in 1999 and still loved it, so i want to ask for an signed autograph card from you, because of respect for your work, there’re not so many couragous people out there in the it-world like you!! many greetings from germany
sandro
Plenty of official Olympic coverage including the full opening ceremony is available on the IOC’s official YouTube channel
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=undefined http://yt-olympic.appspot.com/page/row/en-us/home?lang=en-GB&gl=GB&hl=en-GB #london2012
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