Comments on: 2013: The Year Of…

By: vishi gondi

vishi gondi — Tue, 29 Jan 2013 03:23:05 +0000

Axioms:
* Vertically integrated companies innovate.
* What’s not good enough moves to other levels when innovation happens.
* Network benefits and data at critical mass are forces that are hard to recon with.
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Theorum:
In the mobile space, once devices are good enough, value will move to the service layer. Large players with huge network and data at critical mass make it hard to compete.
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PS: It’s not a fort until you have a moat.
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Spoiler: Google and Facebook will reign supreme.

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By: Aktuelles 21. Januar 2013 — neunetz.com

Aktuelles 21. Januar 2013 — neunetz.com — Mon, 21 Jan 2013 12:09:37 +0000

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By: Edward

Edward — Sat, 19 Jan 2013 02:11:17 +0000

Is Samsung even capable of building their own *popular* OS and ecosystem? Apple started building theirs back at the iPod days before iPhone. In terms of all content, movies, books, music, TV shows, not just apps, Apple still has the upper hand in that area. Samsung is so far behind here, they need to partner with another entity, so without the help of Google, Samsung is truly f**ked. Tizen or any of their own OS initiatives aren’t even close competing with what Google or Apple has built. Are they working on some secret ecosystem project right now as we speak or are they focusing on the Android experience for their next gen phone? Considering the money spent on marketing Android based devices, it should be clear. Samsung is not yet capable to leave the house of Google, and why would they want to, everything is free there, well it is.

On the other hand Google needs Samsung and companies like it to strengthen Android’s position in the market place. Again looking at the Samsung marketing budget and market share, they might just be the main reason Android is as popular as it is, hey, its not just about software after all, both are important to a hardware device. Motorola is far, very far behind Samsung today as a brand name. And if you look at the Motorola Xoom tablets vs Google Nexus tablets, it clearly works better for Google when they are open to outside partnerships, maybe the phoneX or some tabletX will change that view, maybe not. In the grand scheme of things, its still better for Google to partner with 3rd parties.

Google v. Samsung, neither party would benefit from the other being an enemy, that’s for sure.

By: Carpenter

Carpenter — Tue, 08 Jan 2013 21:09:25 +0000

http://www.asymco.com/2012/11/14/google-vs-samsung/

If you look at Samsung and Google income Q310 – Q312 it does not look too good for Google. Samsung is making the android money, not Google. Only risk for Samsung is that Google stops doing what it is doing.

Obtaining assets that enable Andtoid and leaving Google behind would be extremely difficult task. It would also be very costly and very risky. Samsung will enjoy the ride as long as it lasts.

By: Sean

Sean — Tue, 08 Jan 2013 12:22:02 +0000

I see Samsung coming out on top, not Google. Samsung will want full vertical integration, Apple style. It has ridden the Android wave to the top, but once its position and brand recognition as the top handset maker besides Apple is strong enough, I don’t see it staying married to Google—it doesn’t need to in order to retain user share and user loyalty.

If Sammy launches an ecosystem (Tizen or Android fork) that is easy enough for Android devs to port to, they will in droves, simply because Samsung sells so many more phones than all the other Android manufacturers.

The average user likes the SAMSUNG Galaxy S3 or Note2, not the ANDROID Galaxy S3/Note 2. If the UX is the same, users will stick with Samsung even if it’s no longer Android. (I doubt the average Samsung owner even knows the OS comes from Google.)

I think Samsung is in a much stronger position than Google at this point.

By: Walt French

Walt French — Mon, 07 Jan 2013 21:53:36 +0000

@JLG, I thought pretty hard to discover the logical connection between your recitation of facts and conclusion, but uncharacteristically for your work, couldn’t find it.
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Tizen seems like a good enough OS for much lower-powered phones such as the overwhelming majority of devices sold today — and probably, for the next couple of years. Soon, many in that bracket will want cheap Android phones, but many will not want the pricier components that modern Android will require. It seems like an excellent foray into that space, one which Samsung is otherwise already superbly positioned to serve.
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These users will want apps and ecosystems, too, but one calibrated to a much lower income level, and geographies, than you & I inhabit. Samsung can build out marketplaces based on very low costs and very high volumes.
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And they can do this quite independently of their high-end products and relationship with Google. Tizen might limit sales a bit of low-end Androids, but the immediate threat to Google is zero, as those markets aren’t ones with Google revenues, anyway. Even if —when!— Sammy smushes the line between Tizen and Android phones, and adds stronger apps plus media that plays on either platform, Google will have a hard time coming down on Samsung without blowing up the OHA.
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Samsung would be foolish to overplay its hand, and I don’t think they will. They are carefully investing in being the dominant low-end provider; unless a magical fruit company disrupts featurephones the way that Apple blew away the netbook business with the iPad, Samsung is likely to thrive.
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Maybe the conflict comes in 3–5 years, when Samsung has a robust infrastructure and chooses to see Google as its enemy. Until then, they are getting all the milk without buying the cow, and should be very happy to have Google enhance Android for their near-exclusive benefit.

By: Edwin

Edwin — Mon, 07 Jan 2013 17:21:19 +0000

Anecdotally it is hard to believe that Samsung outspends Apple marketing phones by orders of magnitude. Here in LA, it appears to be the opposite and besides, Horace is hopelessly Apple biased. But I really love the idea that Apple has kept it’s marketing expenses relatively low because it’s supply chain can’t keep up? The vaunted Tim Cook created supply chain that some have deemed Apple’s core strategic advantage is now the problem?

Anyway, Google clearly created Android, the free OS as a platform to try to stop the iPhone juggernaut (mission largely accomplished). This OS can and will be used by anyone for anything. The other distinct piece, Google’s eco-system has a nice home on Android, the web and even now iOS. It is the critical piece for Google and there is no eco-system close at this point. Apple’s real strategic blunder was continuing to think it was all about shiny objects and going after Android the OS (rubber-banding lists, etc.) and not Google’s eco-system. Samsung, as you rightly point out, is stuck with Google’s eco-system for the time being.

By: Cyan

Cyan — Mon, 07 Jan 2013 16:55:38 +0000

To be fair, it’s not the first time we see here a tribune, or a hint, of a future fraction within Android camp.

But face it, as a former Apple CEO and Apple enthousiast, this view looks somewhat self-serving, at least in the best interest of Apple.

However, it has not happened. Not yet. Sure, given enough time, some day, frictions and fractions are bound to appear. One day, or another. But will it matter then ?

By: David Olson

David Olson — Mon, 07 Jan 2013 15:02:35 +0000

JLG, I am sorry for your recent losses of friends and relatives to cancer. It is very sad that people do things destructive for their own well-being. I thought these sad thoughts were fitting for the battle that is coming between Google and Samsung. Companies also do things destructive for their own well-being. I liked Google better before they started “smoking.” But I am not sure that Google has “cancer” yet.

By: Pavel

Pavel — Mon, 07 Jan 2013 09:11:52 +0000

IMO the article left one quite important aspect out : Android made a huge leap forward in terms of platform polish in Jelly Bean and plain, stock version of it is clearly superior to Samsung or HTC “flavors” and it is really appreciated by the users, both Nexus 4, 7 and 10 are getting rave reviews and Nexus 7 has been huge hit in terms of units shipped. If Google can sell enough volume of Nexus 4, which is really amazing phone, they might consider focus more on delivering stock Android to the ordinary user (perhaps in the form of Google Store chain, which is far more important than whatever XPhone). Once people start to recognize the value of untainted Android, Samsung can get enough headache, no matter how they inflate their marketing budget.

Another mistake would be to underestimate the power of the Google Play market place. It is true you can fork Android easily, but you won’t get GP as a result. Even Amazon, which is in great position as its main product is marketplace, has difficulty to provide enough quality applications. GP is a clear winner (along with AppStore) and reason #1 why Microsoft Windows Phone, and any other “new” mobile OS might have too steep hill to climb. If you invested couple hundred dollars into applications for your platform, and you are happy with them, there is no way out.

By: RobDK

RobDK — Mon, 07 Jan 2013 08:20:22 +0000

Looking at their relative sizes, Samsung could also buy Google. That would solve all their problems!…

By: Suyog Mody

Suyog Mody — Mon, 07 Jan 2013 07:13:53 +0000

Couldn’t agree more! For Google, Android goes back to mobile search and discovery, whereas for Samsung its about revenues through hardware. Samsung has never demonstrated any recognisable success in creating and maintaining a software stack and culturally they are likely not going to be able to. I think Google wins this one. If they are strategic about it, they’ll prop up Motorola once anti-trust investigations in Europe are settled.

By: Vidman

Vidman — Mon, 07 Jan 2013 05:40:03 +0000

Samsung has successfully built a cult following around the “Galaxy” brand of devices, almost rivaling the Apple iDevices in parts of Asia and Europe. While the Galaxy range of devices are quality devices on their own, Samsung is also buying the “cool factor” through their massive marketing efforts and this seems to be working quite effectively. At some point in time, the man in the street does not really care about the Mobile OS on their latest smartphone, as long as their favourite Apps and Services are available. I can very well see Samsung build a layer of Googlesque Apps and services on top of Tizen on their next generation Galaxy devices. Samsung wants to own their destiny instead of letting Google define it. While Tizen will be open source, I believe Samsung will fork Tizen to make certain features Samsung specific to give them an advantage.

By: Fafnir

Fafnir — Mon, 07 Jan 2013 05:23:03 +0000

According to Ars Technica Ubuntu will come strong next year because it will use native .app instead of Java by Android?
About the store I was not pleased with the Apple one because I have to use it to update the programs coming with the OS and the questions to recover a password are too rigid.

By: Manish

Manish — Mon, 07 Jan 2013 05:08:03 +0000

Samsung will use Tizen but not in its stock form; they will put TouchWiz on it and no one will be able to tell whether it’s running Android or Tizen at the back-end. I guess that’s been their strategy behind skinning Android.

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2013: The Year Of… — Mon, 07 Jan 2013 04:59:11 +0000

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By: GeorgeV

GeorgeV — Mon, 07 Jan 2013 02:42:06 +0000

The tech media really loves to poke at this idea, because it would be so dramatic and exciting for them if this would happen – isn’t that right?

But in practice, Samsung has no chance if it moved away from Google and Android. Look at all their previous efforts. Look at their Windows Phone efforts. They’ve failed miserably with those. I very much doubt that Samsung is keeping Google hostage or anything like that.

A fork like Amazon will also not work. Samsung doesn’t have the ecosystem, and it doesn’t even have the content Amazon has. Plus, Amazon only got away with it for a little while because of it’s EXTREME prices, which Samsung will NOT do, and because the Android community needed a hero tablet against the iPad. As soon as the Nexus 7 and other such competitors came out – everyone pretty much forgot about the Kindle Fire, which is also an inferior product from top to bottom, compared to Nexus 7.

Sure, they still have some sales going on, thanks to inertia from the media and advertising (also on their own site – antitrust issue, perhaps?), but that is fading away now.

By: rd

rd — Mon, 07 Jan 2013 02:24:14 +0000

I think China more a problem for Google than Samsung because their services are not used by Chinese manufacturer. If you look at Chinese data Android has 70% market share but the Android Browser is only 30%.

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2013: The Year of H265
2013: The Year of Rogue GPU.
2013: The Year of Retina.

By: Marcos

Marcos — Mon, 07 Jan 2013 01:55:00 +0000

Samsung knows that they are very strong in the smartphone market. Also, that their Galaxy brand and market trach is strong, and many buy a “Galaxy”, not an Android phone. By using Google’s Android as it is, they are leaving money on the table and they know it.

Replicating Google’s (or Amazon’s) ecosystem won’t be easy, but if there is one company with the resources and with no qualms about ruthlessly copying a competitor, it is Samsung.

If they can try Bada, Tizen, etc. too see what sticks (Samsung tries everything to see what sticks), you bet that they are preparing a fork of Android and a set of replacement online services and app/music stores. It is not a difficult prediction. It is not a matter of if, but of when.

Otherwise, they’d be being dumb. And they are not dumb.

By: Ted T.

Ted T. — Mon, 07 Jan 2013 01:30:05 +0000

I’d also add to my comment that Samsung has a far greater latitude than Google to be ruthless — Google is not out of the anti-trust woods yet, while Samsung, thanks to Apple is unlikely to be ever in a monopolist position the way Google is with search.

By: Ted T.

Ted T. — Mon, 07 Jan 2013 01:25:32 +0000

“[Google] will help itself to the higher value of vertically integrated products and, at best, degrade the Korean giant’s margins or, worse, drive them into a PC-like race-to-the-bottom with other handset makers.”

I’m not are you are spelling out how this will happen — I think Samsung has the upper hand. When they advertise the Galaxy or the Note they aren’t advertising Android, they are advertising Samsung devices. Apart from a tech savvy minority who is going to care if Samsung forks Android a la Amazon?

Samsung is way, way more profitable than Google right now. They can readily afford to buy/license maps elsewhere (Tom Tom, Nokia, etc.) They can buy license the other pieces of the ecosystem as well. Google Play is hardly some shining success of an ecosystem they can’t live without. And we know what happens when someone gets rid of Google Maps, replacing it with something else: great hue and cry and the iPhone 5 became the bestselling phone ever, the iPad Mini a smash hit…

Plus I don’t see how/why Samsung will allow Google to perform a profit-ectomy on it, to push it into a “PC-like race-to-the-bottom”. They’ll fork first, ask questions later. Ultimately will the carriers be more interested in helping Samsung or Google? That will decide this fight more than anything else. So far I would say Samsung has had far more success dealing with the carriers than Google has.

By: vtwkang

vtwkang — Mon, 07 Jan 2013 01:25:04 +0000

I think there’s more to Google building the xPhone than a fear of Samsung. Certain observers like Brian S. Hall have been pointing out for months that Google’s current strategy — monetising Android user data — hasn’t generated much in the way of profits. Android has so far been a massive cost sink for Google. The only companies making money are those that sell devices to users, and Google must be tempted to get in on this action.

By: Horace the Grump

Horace the Grump — Sun, 06 Jan 2013 23:42:29 +0000

I think one of the more interesting questions for this year will be when Samsung forks Andorid into its own OS and effectively dumps Google in much the same way that Amazon has forked Android for its own ends….