Comments on: The Next Big Thing: Big Missing Pieces http://www.mondaynote.com/2013/02/10/the-next-big-thing-big-missing-pieces/ Media, Tech & Business Models Tue, 21 May 2013 23:11:03 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v= By: adult toys for sexadult toys for women http://www.mondaynote.com/2013/02/10/the-next-big-thing-big-missing-pieces/#comment-42334 adult toys for sexadult toys for women Mon, 06 May 2013 10:11:09 +0000 http://www.mondaynote.com/?p=5292#comment-42334 I must say the blog post is definitely useful for everyone else reading it as the information and knowledge it contains is essential. I like the publish! Excellent job! Keep sharing such important information through your weblogs. adult toys for sexadult toys for women http://ociegrq.wordpress.com/2013/05/04/he-most-appealing-part-of-this-realistic-sex-doll-is-his-incredible-lifelike-texture/ I must say the blog post is definitely useful for everyone else reading it as the information and knowledge it contains is essential. I like the publish! Excellent job! Keep sharing such important information through your weblogs. adult toys for sexadult toys for women http://ociegrq.wordpress.com/2013/05/04/he-most-appealing-part-of-this-realistic-sex-doll-is-his-incredible-lifelike-texture/

]]> By: home security systems http://www.mondaynote.com/2013/02/10/the-next-big-thing-big-missing-pieces/#comment-41407 home security systems Fri, 12 Apr 2013 21:45:18 +0000 http://www.mondaynote.com/?p=5292#comment-41407 It's hard to find well-informed people for this topic, however, you seem like you know what you're talking about! Thanks It’s hard to find well-informed people for this topic, however, you seem like you know what you’re talking about!
Thanks

]]> By: Jean-Louis Gassée http://www.mondaynote.com/2013/02/10/the-next-big-thing-big-missing-pieces/#comment-31920 Jean-Louis Gassée Sat, 16 Feb 2013 16:10:29 +0000 http://www.mondaynote.com/?p=5292#comment-31920 @Boris: The $100B number is illustrative, as opposed to a precise forecast. Apple reaching or exceeding $200B in revenue this year, a real NBT would need to count for about 10%, so the $20B number. And if Apple got a 20% share of that new product/service, we'd be looking at about $100B worldwide. All hypothetical and very rough. That said, there'll be a lot of room for smaller new things bekow that $100B size :-) @Boris: The $100B number is illustrative, as opposed to a precise forecast. Apple reaching or exceeding $200B in revenue this year, a real NBT would need to count for about 10%, so the $20B number. And if Apple got a 20% share of that new product/service, we’d be looking at about $100B worldwide. All hypothetical and very rough.
That said, there’ll be a lot of room for smaller new things bekow that $100B size :-)

]]> By: Boris http://www.mondaynote.com/2013/02/10/the-next-big-thing-big-missing-pieces/#comment-31919 Boris Sat, 16 Feb 2013 15:50:44 +0000 http://www.mondaynote.com/?p=5292#comment-31919 Jean-Louis, Could you please elaborate on what the $100 billion figure represents? Is this an annual revenue figure from all related industries to the next big thing? Is your Apple 20 billion figure Apple's slice of the presumed global pie? Do you see this as some sort of threshold for stream-entry, as the Buddhists call it, or are you merely creating a definition of the NBT? Jean-Louis, Could you please elaborate on what the $100 billion figure represents? Is this an annual revenue figure from all related industries to the next big thing? Is your Apple 20 billion figure Apple’s slice of the presumed global pie?

Do you see this as some sort of threshold for stream-entry, as the Buddhists call it, or are you merely creating a definition of the NBT?

]]> By: Maynard Handley http://www.mondaynote.com/2013/02/10/the-next-big-thing-big-missing-pieces/#comment-31881 Maynard Handley Thu, 14 Feb 2013 06:46:05 +0000 http://www.mondaynote.com/?p=5292#comment-31881 "From appearances, and your example, the ubiquity of IP interfaces will be less important due to the product-specific semantics. " This problem has been solved in other spaces. Both USB and Bluetooth have done an adequate job of describing semantics in a way that works across manufacturers. It is true that the CE manufacturers have traditionally done a lousy job on this front, but the way this could play out is simply that they become irrelevant and it is the Belkins and the Logitechs, more willing to face modern reality, that take their place. Perhaps the problem is that there has been (so far) no equivalent of an Intel or an Ericksson willing to define a first pass at the necessary standards and create an industry group. But it won't remain that way forever. One could see, for example, Intel's recent mutterings about a set-top box as a step in that direction. It is true that some prior efforts along these lines (eg DLNA) seem to suck. But it's not clear that their suck is due to deep technological reasons rather than just lousy UIs. “From appearances, and your example, the ubiquity of IP interfaces will be less important due to the product-specific semantics. ”

This problem has been solved in other spaces. Both USB and Bluetooth have done an adequate job of describing semantics in a way that works across manufacturers. It is true that the CE manufacturers have traditionally done a lousy job on this front, but the way this could play out is simply that they become irrelevant and it is the Belkins and the Logitechs, more willing to face modern reality, that take their place.

Perhaps the problem is that there has been (so far) no equivalent of an Intel or an Ericksson willing to define a first pass at the necessary standards and create an industry group. But it won’t remain that way forever. One could see, for example, Intel’s recent mutterings about a set-top box as a step in that direction.

It is true that some prior efforts along these lines (eg DLNA) seem to suck. But it’s not clear that their suck is due to deep technological reasons rather than just lousy UIs.

]]> By: Bruce http://www.mondaynote.com/2013/02/10/the-next-big-thing-big-missing-pieces/#comment-31868 Bruce Tue, 12 Feb 2013 21:26:33 +0000 http://www.mondaynote.com/?p=5292#comment-31868 "Three years ago, Chef Jobs grabbed the ingredients that had been available to all and, this time, the tablet genre “took”. " I think multitouch was a key ingredient. From what I have read, multitouch had not been around very long before the iPhone was released. There was a TED talk on multitouch in December, about 1 year before the iPhone was announced in January. It's true that all of this happened much longer than three years ago, but I'm guessing the iPad was being designed around the same time as the iPhone. “Three years ago, Chef Jobs grabbed the ingredients that had been available to all and, this time, the tablet genre “took”. ”

I think multitouch was a key ingredient. From what I have read, multitouch had not been around very long before the iPhone was released. There was a TED talk on multitouch in December, about 1 year before the iPhone was announced in January.

It’s true that all of this happened much longer than three years ago, but I’m guessing the iPad was being designed around the same time as the iPhone.

]]> By: DD http://www.mondaynote.com/2013/02/10/the-next-big-thing-big-missing-pieces/#comment-31864 DD Tue, 12 Feb 2013 14:31:40 +0000 http://www.mondaynote.com/?p=5292#comment-31864 Perhaps two numbers could put the Apple commerce revolution in perspective. 430 million and 137 billion. The first is the number of active accounts on iTunes, the second is Apple's cash position. Both are growing. That is more than enough to define the standards for commerce. Perhaps two numbers could put the Apple commerce revolution in perspective. 430 million and 137 billion. The first is the number of active accounts on iTunes, the second is Apple’s cash position. Both are growing. That is more than enough to define the standards for commerce.

]]> By: John Publish http://www.mondaynote.com/2013/02/10/the-next-big-thing-big-missing-pieces/#comment-31857 John Publish Tue, 12 Feb 2013 05:53:46 +0000 http://www.mondaynote.com/?p=5292#comment-31857 Regarding DD's comment, while we all have been salivating at the notion of credit cards on phones and Google Wallet, those movements have been put on the backburner of tech firms, as the payment processing industry is even more convoluted and inundated w/ firms trying to protect their fees. I sincerely believe there may have to be more government authority exerted to enforce a more open standards vision, which will prevent duopolies and the like from cornering the market w/ their own proprietary standards. Or paradoxically, they could allow these big firms to collude and define an open standard themselves, which would actually be a step in the right direction. (Yes, bad for external competition, but the hardware game is over. No more entrants in the PC/mobile game, please) Regarding DD’s comment, while we all have been salivating at the notion of credit cards on phones and Google Wallet, those movements have been put on the backburner of tech firms, as the payment processing industry is even more convoluted and inundated w/ firms trying to protect their fees. I sincerely believe there may have to be more government authority exerted to enforce a more open standards vision, which will prevent duopolies and the like from cornering the market w/ their own proprietary standards. Or paradoxically, they could allow these big firms to collude and define an open standard themselves, which would actually be a step in the right direction. (Yes, bad for external competition, but the hardware game is over. No more entrants in the PC/mobile game, please)

]]> By: DD http://www.mondaynote.com/2013/02/10/the-next-big-thing-big-missing-pieces/#comment-31847 DD Mon, 11 Feb 2013 18:53:31 +0000 http://www.mondaynote.com/?p=5292#comment-31847 Smart appliances? Meh. Yes, television will eventually get dragged kicking and screaming into the 21st century. But I don't think that will be the next big thing. Margins are razor thin already and the value added will be limited. Next big thing? Why not personal banking and commerce? Now that smart phones are ubiquitous, we should be using them to buy and sell. And not just overpriced lattes. NFC looked like the up and coming standard but Apple has backed off. Security issues perhaps? Lack of control? Hard to know but look for interesting things coming down the pike. ABofC? (Apple Bank of Commerce?) Smart appliances? Meh. Yes, television will eventually get dragged kicking and screaming into the 21st century. But I don’t think that will be the next big thing. Margins are razor thin already and the value added will be limited.

Next big thing? Why not personal banking and commerce? Now that smart phones are ubiquitous, we should be using them to buy and sell. And not just overpriced lattes. NFC looked like the up and coming standard but Apple has backed off. Security issues perhaps? Lack of control? Hard to know but look for interesting things coming down the pike.

ABofC? (Apple Bank of Commerce?)

]]> By: Walt French http://www.mondaynote.com/2013/02/10/the-next-big-thing-big-missing-pieces/#comment-31844 Walt French Mon, 11 Feb 2013 15:38:32 +0000 http://www.mondaynote.com/?p=5292#comment-31844 From appearances, and your example, the ubiquity of IP interfaces will be less important due to the product-specific semantics. Until companies aim for a common set of understandings of labels, it'll be hard for some third-party app to set up user-friendly scenarios such as “play last night's Downton Abbey episode from the 0:30 mark when I fell asleep” regardless of whether that episode came from my DVR, a DVD or whatever. Let alone allowing an app to connect the audio from my Samsung TV into my Panasonic audio system, played only through my living room speakers. . I have a rudimentary home automation system, mostly around security and timed lights, plus a house-wide audio system. Those were plenty complex enough with each using components mostly from a single vendor. If we're going to make a Next Big Thing out of such pedestrian functions, they'll need to add much more utility than complexity, one aspect of which will be to speak a common language —richer than the XML, which carries no meaning without understanding field labels AND contents. . But I'm dubious that the various companies will naturally fall into line. Just as you say the content distributors don't want to be turned into dumb pipes, the electronic manufacturers won't want to be mere interchangeable modules in somebody else's Grand Scheme. That's certainly been the history of computer standards over the past decades, with web-wide standards often emerging only after the technology has peaked in relevance. E.g., W3C is still struggling with video standards when the huge majority of internet video (including Flash vids) is h.264. From appearances, and your example, the ubiquity of IP interfaces will be less important due to the product-specific semantics. Until companies aim for a common set of understandings of labels, it’ll be hard for some third-party app to set up user-friendly scenarios such as “play last night’s Downton Abbey episode from the 0:30 mark when I fell asleep” regardless of whether that episode came from my DVR, a DVD or whatever. Let alone allowing an app to connect the audio from my Samsung TV into my Panasonic audio system, played only through my living room speakers.
.
I have a rudimentary home automation system, mostly around security and timed lights, plus a house-wide audio system. Those were plenty complex enough with each using components mostly from a single vendor. If we’re going to make a Next Big Thing out of such pedestrian functions, they’ll need to add much more utility than complexity, one aspect of which will be to speak a common language —richer than the XML, which carries no meaning without understanding field labels AND contents.
.
But I’m dubious that the various companies will naturally fall into line. Just as you say the content distributors don’t want to be turned into dumb pipes, the electronic manufacturers won’t want to be mere interchangeable modules in somebody else’s Grand Scheme. That’s certainly been the history of computer standards over the past decades, with web-wide standards often emerging only after the technology has peaked in relevance. E.g., W3C is still struggling with video standards when the huge majority of internet video (including Flash vids) is h.264.

]]> By: Muigai http://www.mondaynote.com/2013/02/10/the-next-big-thing-big-missing-pieces/#comment-31842 Muigai Mon, 11 Feb 2013 12:07:03 +0000 http://www.mondaynote.com/?p=5292#comment-31842 "All rolled up together into a big nest by the dung beetle." Job's turned shit into Gold? Many of his fans might think that turning water into wine would be a more apt anology, “All rolled up together into a big nest by the dung beetle.”

Job’s turned shit into Gold? Many of his fans might think that turning water into wine would be a more apt anology,

]]> By: robin http://www.mondaynote.com/2013/02/10/the-next-big-thing-big-missing-pieces/#comment-31840 robin Mon, 11 Feb 2013 09:24:46 +0000 http://www.mondaynote.com/?p=5292#comment-31840 Technology is like a Tsunami. Leave the boat and lie around on the beach for too long and when the wave comes, it's all over. Almost everybody left their backberries on the beach along with the trashy novels and other junk. Jobs understood more than just a product, and nobody else comes near him. Design, strategy, technology, people, organisation, managemement, sales, content, networks, production, logistics, style, marketing and assholery. All rolled up together into a big nest by the dung beetle. Technology is like a Tsunami. Leave the boat and lie around on the beach for too long and when the wave comes, it’s all over. Almost everybody left their backberries on the beach along with the trashy novels and other junk.

Jobs understood more than just a product, and nobody else comes near him. Design, strategy, technology, people, organisation, managemement, sales, content, networks, production, logistics, style, marketing and assholery. All rolled up together into a big nest by the dung beetle.

]]> By: Hamranhansenhansen http://www.mondaynote.com/2013/02/10/the-next-big-thing-big-missing-pieces/#comment-31839 Hamranhansenhansen Mon, 11 Feb 2013 04:48:20 +0000 http://www.mondaynote.com/?p=5292#comment-31839 > Even in our deliberately simplified example, > there seems to be no interest in coming up > with a simple, open (yes, that word, again) > standard That is what “Bonjour” is — a simple open standard that enables IP devices to self-configure so that they work together automatically. It is very broadly used and supported. It is basically open standard AppleTalk. In your TV remote example, both the TV and remote would be IP devices, find each other over the Wi-Fi network in your home, and self-configure with Bonjour. Le Voila! You press “mute” on the remote and the TV volume is muted. Also works if the TV remote is an iPhone app. And of course it works anywhere in the house because the TV and remote are talking over Wi-Fi, not infrared. > Even in our deliberately simplified example,
> there seems to be no interest in coming up
> with a simple, open (yes, that word, again)
> standard

That is what “Bonjour” is — a simple open standard that enables IP devices to self-configure so that they work together automatically. It is very broadly used and supported. It is basically open standard AppleTalk.

In your TV remote example, both the TV and remote would be IP devices, find each other over the Wi-Fi network in your home, and self-configure with Bonjour. Le Voila! You press “mute” on the remote and the TV volume is muted. Also works if the TV remote is an iPhone app. And of course it works anywhere in the house because the TV and remote are talking over Wi-Fi, not infrared.

]]> By: Fafnir http://www.mondaynote.com/2013/02/10/the-next-big-thing-big-missing-pieces/#comment-31834 Fafnir Sun, 10 Feb 2013 22:16:54 +0000 http://www.mondaynote.com/?p=5292#comment-31834 I purchased a basic scanner three years ago. There is no driver for my new mac mini so I have to keep the old one. When you see something that simple not working correctly you don't want the complexification of network to go ahead. On the other hand there is slow progress on the standardisation like H.265 and HTML5. Another problem is on whom will have control. For example my strata has shut off my access to the enterphone because I refused to pay them a false invoice. I purchased a basic scanner three years ago. There is no driver for my new mac mini so I have to keep the old one. When you see something that simple not working correctly you don’t want the complexification of network to go ahead.
On the other hand there is slow progress on the standardisation like H.265 and HTML5.
Another problem is on whom will have control. For example my strata has shut off my access to the enterphone because I refused to pay them a false invoice.

]]> By: Horace the Grump http://www.mondaynote.com/2013/02/10/the-next-big-thing-big-missing-pieces/#comment-31833 Horace the Grump Sun, 10 Feb 2013 21:45:47 +0000 http://www.mondaynote.com/?p=5292#comment-31833 The 'smart' home is probably the next Big Thing in that there are many potential benefits and cost savings to be had. I've seen products from companies like Control 4 (control4.com) that offer a range of products - but they seem to focus more on the entertainment side of things. They key problem is that someone (company/person/VC) needs to figure out now to cheaply and easily update a dwellings wiring (electricity mainly) to become 'smart' - maybe via plugs interposed at the wall sockets - this technology exists but its fiddly and expensive and lacks scale... Its not so much about remaking the TV industry or cable industry - its the power distribution industry and that would seem to be a harder chore.... The ‘smart’ home is probably the next Big Thing in that there are many potential benefits and cost savings to be had. I’ve seen products from companies like Control 4 (control4.com) that offer a range of products – but they seem to focus more on the entertainment side of things.

They key problem is that someone (company/person/VC) needs to figure out now to cheaply and easily update a dwellings wiring (electricity mainly) to become ‘smart’ – maybe via plugs interposed at the wall sockets – this technology exists but its fiddly and expensive and lacks scale…

Its not so much about remaking the TV industry or cable industry – its the power distribution industry and that would seem to be a harder chore….

]]> By: Mike Van Horn (@mikevanhorn) http://www.mondaynote.com/2013/02/10/the-next-big-thing-big-missing-pieces/#comment-31832 Mike Van Horn (@mikevanhorn) Sun, 10 Feb 2013 20:16:22 +0000 http://www.mondaynote.com/?p=5292#comment-31832 You really talked about two different things in this article: appliances and media devices. The difficulties you described seem to pertain mostly to the latter. Would it be possible for the "IP on appliances" move to precede the media side? Could this build some momentum and standards among manufacturers, and thus create a more formidable partner to the media giants? Which media channel is the weak sister that may wish to partner with (or be acquired by) one of these IP giants to allow entree to the media distribution world? I watch crows flying home to roost every evening from our deck. These flocks behave somewhat like your school of fish, but it's easier to see which one turns first. The crow that changes direction and induces the entire flock to change course is often nowhere near the front, but may be near the aft end of the flock. You really talked about two different things in this article: appliances and media devices. The difficulties you described seem to pertain mostly to the latter. Would it be possible for the “IP on appliances” move to precede the media side? Could this build some momentum and standards among manufacturers, and thus create a more formidable partner to the media giants?

Which media channel is the weak sister that may wish to partner with (or be acquired by) one of these IP giants to allow entree to the media distribution world?

I watch crows flying home to roost every evening from our deck. These flocks behave somewhat like your school of fish, but it’s easier to see which one turns first. The crow that changes direction and induces the entire flock to change course is often nowhere near the front, but may be near the aft end of the flock.

]]> By: Derek Footer http://www.mondaynote.com/2013/02/10/the-next-big-thing-big-missing-pieces/#comment-31830 Derek Footer Sun, 10 Feb 2013 18:33:33 +0000 http://www.mondaynote.com/?p=5292#comment-31830 HBO or ESPN will be the lead fish. Where they go, others have to follow. HBO or ESPN will be the lead fish. Where they go, others have to follow.

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