mobile internet

Tech as a boost for development


 

Moore’s Law also applies to global development. From futuristic wireless networks for rural Africa to tracking water well drillings, digital technology is a powerful boost for development as evidenced by a growing number of initiatives.  

Last week, The Wall Street Journal unveiled a Google project designed to provide wireless networks in developing countries, more specifically in sub-Saharan Africa and Southeast Asia. According to the Journal, the initiative involves using the airwaves spectrum allocated for television signals or teaming up with cellular carriers already working there. In its typical “outside-of-the-box” thinking, the project might also rely on high-altitude blimps to cover infrastructure-deprived areas. Coupled with low-cost handsets using the Android operating system, or the brand new Firefox OS for mobile, this would boost the spread of cellular phones in poor countries.

Previously unavailable, mobile access will be a game changer for billions of people. At the last Mobile World Congress in Barcelona, I chatted with an Alcatel-Lucent executive who explained the experiments she witnessed in Kenya, such as providing the equivalent of index cards to nurses to upgrade their knowledge of specific treatments; the use of mobile phone translated into an unprecedented reach, even in remote areas where basic handsets are shared among many people. Similarly, tests for access to reading material were conducted by UNESCO, the United Nations branch for education and culture. Short stories, some loaded with interactive features, were sent to phones and, amazingly, kids flocked to read, share and participate. All of this was carried on “dumb” phones, sometimes with only mono-color displays. Imagine what could be done with smartphones.

Moore’s Law will keep helping. Currently, high end smartphones are out of reach for emerging markets where users rely on prepaid cards instead of subscriptions. But instead of a $400-$600 handsets (without a 2-year contract) currently sold in Western markets, Chinese manufacturers are aiming at a price of $50 for a durable handset, using a slower processor but sporting all expected features: large screen, good camera, GPS module, accelerometers, and tools for collective use. On such a foundation, dedicated applications can be developed — primarily for education and health.

As an example, the MIT Media Labs has created a system for prescribing eyeglasses that requires only a one-dollar eyepiece attached to a smartphone; compared to professional equipment costing thousands times more, it runs a very decent diagnostic. (This is part of the MIT Global Challenge Initiative).

This, coupled with liquid-filled adjustable glasses such as this one presented at TED a couple of years ago, will help solve vision problems in poor countries for a couple of dollars per person. Other systems aimed at detecting vision-related illnesses such as cataract or glaucoma are in development. So are blood-testing technologies based on bio-chips tied to a mobile app for data collection.

Last week, I attended the Google’s Zeitgeist conference in the UK — two days of enthralling TED-like talks (all videos here). Among many impressive speakers, two got my attention. The first is Sugata Mitra, a professor of education technology at Newcastle University. In his talk — filled with a mixture of Indian and British humor — he described self-organizing systems experiments in rural India built around basic internet-connected computers. The results are compelling for language learning and basic understanding of science or geography.

The other speaker was the complete opposite. Scott Harrison has an interesting trajectory: he is a former New York nightclub promoter who changed drastically his life seven years ago by launching the organization Charity:Water. Harrison’s completely fresh approach helped him redefine how a modern charitable organization should work. He built his organization around three main ideas. First, 100% of donations should reach a project. To achieve this, he created two separate funding circuits: a public one for projects and another for to support operational costs.

Principle number two, build a brand, with all the attributes that go with it: Strong visual identity and well-designed web site (most of those operated by NGO’s are terrible); the web site is rich and attractive and it looks more like than an Obama campaign fundraising machine than a NGO, (I actually tested Charity:Water’s very efficient donation system by giving $100, curious to see where the money will land.)

The third and probably the most innovative idea was to rely on simple, proven digital technologies to guarantee complete project traceability. Donors can find precisely where their money ends up — whether it is for a $60 sand-filter fountain or a $2000 well. Last, Charity:Water funded a drilling truck equipped with a GPS tracker that makes it visible on Google Maps; in addition, the truck tweets its location on a real-time basis. Thanks to a $5 million Google funding, the organization currently works with seven high-tech US companies to develop robust water sensors able to show in real-time how much water is running on a given project. About 1000 of these are to be installed before year-end. This will help detect possible malfunctions and it will also carries promotional (read: fundraising) capabilities: thanks to a mobile app, a kid who helped raise few hundreds bucks among his friends can see where his or her water is actually flowing.

As I write this, I see comments coming, denouncing the gadgetization of charity, the waste of money in technologies not directly benefiting the neediest, Google’s obscure and mercantile motives, or the future payback for cellular carriers from the mobile initiatives mentioned earlier. Sure thing, objections must be heard. But, at this time, everyone who has traveled in poor areas — like I did in India or in sub-Saharan countries such as Senegal, Mauritania and Burkina-Faso — comes back with the strong conviction that all means must be used to provide these populations with basic things we take for granted in the Western world. As for Charity:Water, results speak for themselves: Over six years, the organization has raised almost $100m and it provided drinkable water to 3m people (out of 800m who don’t have access to it in the world — still lots of work left.) Like in many areas, the benefits of new, disruptive models based on modern technologies far outweigh the disadvantages.

frederic.filloux@mondaynote.com

image_pdfimage_print

Carriers Still Think We’re Idiots


 

“Carriers are confident we won’t read the small print that contradicts their tricky advertising. Once in a while, a public servant really does his job and forces a retraction. Why so rarely?.”

‘My goal in life has been to have just enough money to ignore 8-point Helvetica!’ Thus spake a close friend one night in a quiet San Francisco bar. His objection was neither stylistic nor ophthalmologic. We were, once again, lamenting the shenanigans and ruses, the hidden fees and “some restrictions apply” (see, if you can, Sprint’s mendacious use of Truly Unlimited here and here), the roach motels of mileage plans, the nickels and dimes extracted by subterfuge, legally or not. In a word, or six, the tyranny of the fine print.

By accumulating “just enough money”, my friend has the luxury of not having to fight the schemers to the last dollar, of not spending hours on the phone arguing with a robohuman who has been cruelly programmed to confuse and outlast the overly-curious customer. His benign neglect allows him to keep a sunny view of life and a calm mind.

Lucky man.

Most of us don’t lead such a charmed life. We can’t, or shouldn’t, ignore the amendments, refinements, and exceptions that belie the marketing come-ons. But the fine printers — the airlines, credit card companies, internet providers and, most of all, the cell phone carriers — rely on our neglect, benign or not. They think they can prey on us, that we’re too stupid or lazy to fight back, to protest their obfuscating plans and bizarre bills.

Because of their ubiquity, the cell phone carriers get the most heat. They’ll sell you a $650 iPhone for a mere $200…and then recoup the $450 shortfall by adding a bit of the difference to each installment of your (mandatory) 24 month “service” contract. If you try to break the manacles, you’ll pay for the fractured iron. It’s right there in the fine print.

Last year, a group of concerned professionals called for an end to the confusing and wasteful smartphone subsidies. The group? The carriers themselves (see Carriers Whine: We Wuz Robbed!).

Verizon and AT&T make a spectacle of groaning under the weight of these awful subsidies. They get the Wall Street Journal and others to repeat their stories wholesale in articles such as this one: How the iPhone Zapped Carriers.
Horace Dediu, for one, doesn’t buy the sob story:

“I repeat what I’ve mentioned before: The iPhone is primarily hired as a premium network service salesman. It receives a ‘commission’ for selling a premium service in the form of a premium price. Because it’s so good at it, the premium is quite high.”

Dediu’s observation applies equally well to all the top smartphone brands. They’re all bait, a great way to hook the customer into a revolving 24 month agreement, with high ARPUs (Average Revenue Per User) stemming from the nature, the breadth and attractiveness of services provided by these high-end devices.

T-Mobile, the perennial dark horse, has been one of the more vocal plaintiffs. Besides clearly stating that the company didn’t need the iPhone, T-Mobile has hinted that it would get rid of the blood-sucking payments to handset makers altogether.
Last month, the hints became reality. T-Mobile “re-imagined” itself as the Un-Carrier:

T-Mobile’s pitch:

With no more annual service contract required, we don’t lock you into a big commitment with our Simple Choice Plan.

It’s a clever idea: T-Mobile has seemingly decoupled hardware and service. If you bring your own phone, you just pay for service. If you need a phone, T-Mobile will be happy to sell you one, let’s say a 16Gb iPhone 5 for $99…and as an added convenience (watch the left hand), they’ll offer you a 24-month contract at just $20/month! You want out before serving your 2-year sentence? No problem! Just pony up the full price of the phone; other terms and conditions may apply.

Inexplicably, some pundits (who should know better) have fallen for the pitch. Here’s David Pogue in the New York Times:

“Last week, the landscape changed. T-Mobile violated the unwritten conspiracy code of cellphone carriers. It admitted that the emperors have no clothes.”

The forums buzzed with the party line: It’s the end of contracts and subsidies.
But the company’s too-clever way with words didn’t sit well with other observers. The no-contract claim is obviously disingenuous; it only applies to people bringing their own phone, a tiny minority. For typical customers — those who get their phones from their carriers — the manacles are too familiar.
The claim also didn’t sit well with Bob Ferguson, Washington State’s Attorney General. Ferguson didn’t dither, saying “No Dice” to T-Mobile’s deceptive “No-Contract” advertising:

“As Attorney General, my job is to defend consumers, ensure truth in advertising, and make sure all businesses are playing by the rules.” 

T-Mobile backed down. The company admitted that there actually is a contract, a subsidy, and they offered to make things right with customers who accepted the agreement under murky pretenses.
Happy ending, congratulations to the vigorous AG.

Still, what were T-Mobile execs thinking? Did they really think that we’re such idiots that we can’t see a 24 month obligation as a contract? What sort of corporate culture produces this type of delusion?
In theory, T-Mobile was onto a good idea. You bring your own phone, you truly pay less and you’re not tied to a contract. Come in, stay as long or as little as you’d like, pay by the month.
But this isn’t how the market works in practice. The rapid succession of new phones makes the latest model more desirable. As a result, carriers have an opportunity to tie their customers down by offering the newest device at an artificially low price — and get a comfortable two-year income stream to recoup the subsidy.
Meanwhile, there’s other news in the carrier world:

  • Verizon is locked in difficult negotiations for the purchase of Vodafone’s 45% share of the company. This is in a context where, two years ago, Vodafone made the decision to shed its participation in other carriers such as Orange, SFR or China Mobile. In their bid/ask conversations, Vodafone and Verizon are $30B apart, Verizon offering a mere $100B while Vodafone won’t take a penny less than $130B.
  • Softbank and Dish Network are in a bidding war for Sprint, probably out of gluttony for more punishment. Masayoshi Son, Softbank’s leader, graciously spared us the carrier-as-victim lament. But if Dish Chairman Charlie Ergen prevails, we can be sure this seasoned sob story practitioner will fit right in once he becomes a cellular operator.

These are the people who tell us subsidies are killing them. They really do think we’re idiots.

JLG@mondaynote.com

image_pdfimage_print

Facebook Home: Another Android Lock Pick


 

Facebook’s new Home on Android smartphone is an audacious attempt to demote the OS to a utility role, to keep to itself user data Android was supposed to feed into Google’s advertising business. Google’s reaction will be worth watching.

Amazon’s Kindle Fire, announced late September 2011, is viewed as a clever “Android lock pick“. Notwithstanding the term’s illicit flavor, Amazon’s burglary is entirely legal, an intended consequence of Google’s decision to Open Source their Android mobile operating system. Download the Android source code here, modify it to your heart’s — or business needs’ — content, load it onto a device and sell as many as you’d like.

Because it doesn’t fully meet the terms of the Android Compatibility Program, Amazon’s proprietary version isn’t allowed to use the Android trademark and the company had to open its own App Store. In industry argot, Amazon “forked” Android; they spawned an incompatible branch in the Android Source Tree.

The result of this heretic version of Android is a platform that’s tuned to Amazon’s own needs: Promoting its e-commerce without feeding Google’s advertising money pump.

And that brings us to Facebook’s new Home.

(The company’s slick presentation is here. Business Insider’s also provides a helpful gallery.)

Zuckerberg’s new creation is the latest instance of the noble pursuit of making the user’s life easier by wrapping a shell around existing software. Creating a shell isn’t a shallow endeavor; Windows started its life as a GUI shell wrapped around MS-DOS.  Even venerable Unix command line interfaces such as C shell, Bourne, and Bash (which can be found inside OS X) are user-friendly — or “somewhat friendlier” — wrappers around the Unix kernel. (Sometimes this noble pursuit is taken too far — remember Microsoft’s Bob? It was the source of many jokes.)

Facebook Home is a shell wrapped around Android; it’s a software layer that sits on top of everything else on your smartphone. Your Facebook friends, your timeline, conversations, everything is in one place. It also gives you a simple, clean way to get to other applications should you feel the need to leave the Facebook corral… but the intent is clear: Why would you ever want to leave Home?

This is audacious and clever, everything we’ve come to expect from the company’s founder.

To start with, and contrary to the speculation leading up to the announcement, Facebook didn’t unveil a piece of hardware. Why bother with design, manufacture, distribution and support, only to sell a few million devices — a tiny fraction of your one billion users — when you can sneak in and take over a much larger number of Android smartphones at a much smaller cost?

Second, Home is not only well-aligned with Facebook’s real business, advertising revenue, it’s even more aligned with an important part of the company’s business strategy: keeping that revenue out of Google’s hands. Android’s only raison d’être is to attract a captive audience, to offer free services (search, email, maps…) in order to gain access to the users’ actions and data, which Google then cashes in by selling eyeballs to advertisers. By “floating” above Android, Home can keep these actions and data to itself, out of Google’s reach.

Facebook, like Amazon, wants to keep control of its core business. But unlike Amazon, Facebook didn’t “fork” Android, it merely demoted it to an OS layer that sits underneath the Home shell.

On paper and in the demos, it sounds like Zuckerberg has run the table… but moving from concept to reality complicates matters.

First, Facebook Home isn’t the only Android shell. An important example is Samsung, the leading Android player: it provides its own TouchWiz UI. Given that the Korean giant is obviously determined to stay in control of its own core business, one wonders how the company will welcome Facebook Home into the family of Galaxy phones and phablets. Will it be a warm embrace, or will Samsung continually modify its software in order to keep Home one step behind?

More generally, Facebook has admitted that differences in Android implementations prevent the first release of Home from working on all Android phones. In order to achieve the coverage they’ll need to keep Google (and its Google+ social networking effort) at bay, Facebook could be sucked into a quagmire of development and support.

Last but not least, there’s Google’s reaction.

So far, we’ve heard little but mellifluous pablum from Google in response to Home. (Microsoft, on the other hand, quickly attempted to point out that they were first with an all-your-activities-friends-communications shell in Windows Phone but, in this game, Android is the new Windows and Microsoft is the Apple of the early 90’s.)

Google has shown that it can play nice with its competitors — as long as they aren’t actually competing on the same turf. The Mountain View company doesn’t mind making substantial ($1B or more) Traffic Acquisition payments to Apple because the two don’t compete in the Search and Advertising business. Facebook taking over an Android smartphone is another matter entirely. Google and Facebook are in the same game; they both crave access to user data.

Google could sit back and observe for a while, quantify Facebook’s actual takeover of Android phones, keep tabs on users’ reactions. Perhaps Home will be perceived as yet another walled garden with a massive handover of private data to Facebook.

But Google already sees trouble for its Android strategy.

Many Asian handset makers now adopt Android without including services such as Google Search, Gmail, and Google Maps, the all-important user data pumps. Samsung still uses many of these services but, having gained a leading role on the Android platform, it might demand more money for the user data it feeds to Google, or even fork the code.

In this context, Facebook Home could be perceived as yet another threat to the Android business model.

A number of possible responses come to mind.

In the computer industry, being annoyed or worse by “compatible” hardware or software isn’t new. As a result, the responses are well honed. You can keep changing the interface, thus making it difficult for the parasitic product to bite into its host and suck its blood (data, in this case), or you change the licensing terms.

Google could change or hide its APIs (Application Programming Interfaces) in order to limit Home’s functionality, or even prevent it from running at all (at least until a particularly nasty “bug” is fixed). Worse, Google could makes changes that cause the Facebook shell to still run, but poorly.

I’ll hasten to say that I doubt Google would do any of this deliberately — it would violate the company’s Don’t Be Evil ethos. But… accidents could happen, such as when a hapless Google engineer mistakenly captured Wifi data.

Seriously, FaceBook Home is yet another pick of the Android lock, a threat against Google’s core strategy that will have to be addressed, either with specific countermeasures or with more global changes in the platform’s monetization.

JLG@mondaynote.com

image_pdfimage_print

The Mobile Rogue Wave


 

Publishers are concerned: The shift to mobile advertising revenue is lagging way behind the transfer of users to smartphones and tablets. Solutions are coming, but it might take a while before mobile ads catch up with users.
(A mistake in the ad revenue chart has been corrected) 

Last week, at a self-congratulatory celebration held by the French audit bureau of circulation (called OJD), the sports daily l’Equipe was honored for the best progression in  mobile audience. (I’m also happy to mention that Les Echos, the business group I’m working for, won the award for the largest growth in overall circulation with a gain of +3.3% in 2012 — in a national market losing 3.8%.) In terms of mobile page views, l’Equipe is three times bigger than the largest national daily (Le Monde). Unfortunately, its publisher tarnished the end the ceremony a bit by saying [I’m paraphrasing]: “Well, thanks for the award. But let’s not fool ourselves. The half of our digital traffic that comes from mobile represents only 5% of our overall digital revenue. We better react quickly, otherwise we’ll be dead soon”. While that outburst triggered only reluctant applause, almost everyone in the audience agreed.

Two days before, IREP (an advertising economics research organization) released 2012 data on advertising revenue for all media. Here is a quick look:

All media........... €13,300m......-3.5% 
TV...................€3,300m.......-4.5%
Print press (all)....€3,209m.......-8.2%
National Dailies.....€233m........ -8.9%
Internet Display.....€646m.........+4.8%
Internet Search......€1,141m.......+7%
Mobile...............€43m.........+29%

A few comments:
— The print press is nosediving faster than ever: In 2011, national dailies where losing 3.7% in revenue; in 2012, they lost almost 9%; and Q1 2013 doesn’t look better.
— On the digital side: Search is now almost twice as big as the display ads and it’s growing faster (7% vs. 4.8%). Google is grabbing most of this growth as the €1.14bn in revenue mentioned by IREP is roughly the equivalent of Google’s revenue in France.
— Mobile revenue is the fastest growing segment (+29%), but weighs only 2% of the entire digital segment (€1,830m revenue in 2012).

Looking at audiences reveals an even bleaker picture. Data compiled by the French circulation bureau for 87 media show that, between February 2012 and February 2013, the mobile applications audience grew 67% in visits and 102% in page views — again, in a segment that only grew 29% for 2012:

The conclusion is dreadful. Not only do audiences massively flock to mobile (more visits), but people spend more time in their favorite media app (with an even greater increase in page views) but, also, each viewer brings less and less money as ad revenues grew slower than visits — by a factor of two — and slower than page views — by a factor of three.

At the same time, in order to address this shift in audience, media are allocating more and more resources to mobile: Apps gain in sophistication and have to run on a greater number of devices. By the end of this year, the iOS ecosystem, until recently the simplest to deal with, will have at least five different screen sizes, and Android dozens of possible configurations. To add insult to injury, mobile apps don’t allow cookies, which prevents most measurements and users tend to randomly switch from their mobile devices to their PC or tablet, making tracking even more difficult…

Where do we go from here?

Publishers have no choice but following their readers. But, in doing so, they better be smart and select the right vectors. The coming months and years are likely to see scores of experiments. Native applications, meaning dedicated to a given ecosystem, might not last forever. As for now, they still offer superior performance but web apps, served from the internet regardless of the terminal’s operating system, are gaining traction. They become more fluid, accommodate more functionalities and improve their storage of contents for offline reading, but it will be a while before they become mainstream. In addition, web apps allow permanent improvements; if you look at the version number of web apps, you’ll see publishers pushing new releases on a weekly basis. They do so at will, as opposed to begging Apple to speed up the approval of native applications (not to mention the absence of a direct link to the customer.)

Similarly, many publishers are placing serious bets on responsive design sites that dynamically adjust to the screen size (see a previous Monday Note on Atlantic’s excellent business site Quartz). Liquid design, as it is also called, is great in theory but extremely difficult to develop and the slightest change requires diving into hugely complex HTML code (which also makes pages heavier to download and render.)

Technically speaking, in a near future, as rendering engines and processors keep improving, the shift to the mobile will no longer be a problem. But solving the low yield of mobile advertising is another matter. The advertising community evangelizes the promises of Real-Time Bidding; RTB basically removes the Ken and Barbie from the transaction process as demand and supply are matched through automated market places. But RTB is also known to pushes assets prices further down. As usual in the digital ad business, the likely winner will be Google, along with a few smaller players — before these are eventually crushed by Google.

The mobile ecosystem will come up with smarter innovations. Some will involve geo-located advertising, but the concept, great in demo, has yet to prove its revenue potential. Data collected through various means are much potent vector to stimulate mobile ads. Facebook knows it only too well: in the last quarter of 2012, it made $305m in mobile ads (that’s more than five times the French mobile ad market… in one quarter!); it accounts for 23% of FB’s total revenue.

Other technologies look more farfetched but quite promising. This article in the MIT Technology Review features a company that could solve a major issue, that is following users as they jump from one device to another. Drawbridge, Inc. was founded by Kamakshi Sivaramakrishnan, a statistics and probability PhD from Stanford. Her pitch (see a video here): bridging smartphones, tablets and PCs thanks to what she calls a “giant statistical space-time data triangulation technique”. In plain English: a model that generates clusters (based on patterns of usage and collected data) that will be used to create a “match” pinpointing an individual’s collection of devices. The goal is giving advertisers the ability to easily extend their campaigns from PC to mobile terminals. A high potential indeed. It caught the interest of two major venture capital firms, Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers and Sequoia Capital, who together injected $20m in the startup. Drawbridge claims to have already bridged about 540 million devices (at a rate or 800 per minute!)

This could be one of the many boards used to ride the Mobile rogue wave and, for many players, avoid drowning.

–frederic.filloux@mondaynote.com

image_pdfimage_print

Growing Forces in Mobile


 

As seen last week in Barcelona, the mobile industry is red hot. The media sector will have to work harder to capture its share of that growth.

The 2013 edition of the Mobile World Congress held last week in Barcelona was as large as the biggest auto-show in the world: 1500 exhibitors and a crowd of 72,000 attendees from 200 countries. The mobile industry is roaring like never before. But the news media industry lags and will have to fight hard to stay in the game. Astonishingly, only two media companies deigned to show up: Pearson with its huge education business accounting for 75% of its 2012 revenue (vs. 7% for its Financial Times unit); and Agence France-Presse which is entering the customized application market. No other big media brand in sight, no trade organizations either. Apparently, the information sector is about to miss the mobile train.

Let’s begin with data that piqued my interest, from AT Kearney surveys for the GSM Association.

Individual mobile subscribers: In 2012, the worldwide number of mobile subscribers reached 3.2 billion. A billion subscribers was added in the last four years. As the world population is expected to grow by 1.1% per year between 2008 and 2017, the mobile sector enjoyed a 8.3% CAGR (Compound Annual Growth Rate) for the 2008-2012 period. For the 2012 – 2017 interval the expected CAGR is 4.2%. The 4 billion subscribers mark will be passed in 2018. By that time, 80% of the global population will be connected via a mobile device.

The rise of the machines. When machine-to-machine (M2M) connections are taken into account, growth becomes even more spectacular: In 2012, there were 6.8 billion active SIM cards, 3% of them being M2M connections. In 2017, there will be 9.7 billion active SIM cards and the share of M2M connections will account for 13% with almost 1.3 billion devices talking to each other.
The Asia-Pacific region will account for half of the connection growth, both for individual subscriptions and M2M.

We’ll now turn to stats that could benefit the media industry.

Mobile growth will be mostly driven by data usage. In 2012, the volume of data exchanged through mobile devices amounted to .9 exabytes per month (1 exabyte = 1bn gigabytes), this is more than the all preceding years combined! By 2017, it is expected to reach 11.2 exabytes, that’s a 66% CAGR!

A large part of this volume will come from the deployment of 4G (LTE) networks. Between now and 2017, deploying LTE technology will result in a 4X increase in connection speeds.

For the 2012 – 2017 period, bandwidth distribution is expected to grow as follows:

M2M:......... +89% 
Video:....... +75% 
Gaming:...... +62% 
Other data:...+55% 
File sharing: +34% 
VoIP:........ +34%

Obviously, the huge growth of video streaming (+75%) points to a great opportunity for the media industry as users will tend to watch news capsules on-the-go in the same way they today look at a mobile web sites or an app (these two will be part of the 55% annual growth).

The growing social mobility will also be an issue for news media. Here are the key figures for today in active mobile users

Facebook:...680m 
Twitter:....120m 
LinkedIn:....46m 
Foursquare:..30m

Still, as important as it is, social usage only accounts for 17 minutes per day, vs. 25 minutes for internet browsing and a mere 12 minutes for voice calls. Most likely, the growth of video will impact the use of social networks as Facebook collects more and more videos directly uploaded from smartphones.

A large part of this growth will be driven by the rise of inexpensive smartphones. Last week in Barcelona, the largest stand was obviously Samsung’s. But a huge crowd also gathered around Huawei or ZTE showing sophisticated Android-powered smartphones — at much lower prices. This came as a surprise to many westerners like me who don’t have access to these Chinese devices. And for emerging markets, Firefox is coming with a HTML5 operating system that looked surprisingly good.

In years to come, the growing number of operating systems, screen sizes and features will be a challenge. (At the MWC, the trend was definitely in favor of large screens, read this story in Engadget.) An entire hall was devoted to applications — and software aimed at producing apps in a more standardized, economical fashion. As a result, we might see three approaches to delivering contents on mobile:
– The simplest way will be mobile sites based on HTML5 and responsive design; more features will be embedded in web applications.
– The second stage will consist of semi-native apps, quickly produced using standardized tools, allowing fast updates and adaptations to a broad range of devices.
– The third way will involve expensive deep-coded native apps aimed at supporting sophisticated graphics; they will mainly be deployed by the gaming industry.

In upcoming Monday Notes, we will address two majors mobile industry trends not tied to the media industry: Connected Living (home-car-city), a sector likely to account for most machine-to-machine use; and digital education taking advantage of a happy combination of more affordable handsets and better bandwidth.

frederic.filloux@mondaynote.com

image_pdfimage_print

Google’s Red Guide to the Android App Store


 

As they approach the one million apps mark, smartphone and tablet app stores leave users stranded in thick, uncharted forests. What are Google and Apple waiting?

Last week, Google made the following announcement:

Mountain View, February 24th, 2013 — As part of an industry that owes so much to Steve Jobs, we remember him on this day, the 58th anniversary of his birth, with great sadness but also with gratitude. Of Steve’s many achievements, we particularly want to celebrate the Apple App Store, the venerable purveyor of iPhone software. 

Introduced in 2008, the App Store was an obvious and natural descendant of iTunes. What wasn’t obvious or foreseen was that the App Store would act as a catalyst for an entire market segment, that it would metamorphose the iPhone from mere smartphone to app phone. This metamorphosis provided an enormous boost to the mobile industry worldwide, a boost that has benefitted us all and Google more than most.

But despite the success of the app phone there’s no question that today’s mobile application stores, our own Google Play included, are poorly curated. No one seems to be in charge, there’s no responsibility for reviewing and grading apps, there’s no explanation of the criteria that goes into the “Editors’ Picks”, app categorization is skin deep and chaotic.

Today, we want to correct this fault and, at the same time, pay homage to Steve’s elegant idea by announcing a new service: The Google Play Red Guide. Powered by Google’s human and computer resources, the Red Guide will help customers identify the trees as they wander through the forest of Android apps. The Red Guide will provide a new level of usefulness and fun for users — and will increase the revenue opportunities for application developers.

With the Google Play Red Guide, we’ll bring an end to the era of the uncharted, undocumented, and poorly policed mobile app store.

The Red Guide takes its name from another great high-tech company, Michelin. At the turn of the 20th century, Michelin saw it needed to promote automotive travel in order to stimulate tire sales. It researched, designed and published great maps, something we can all relate to. To further encourage travel, Michelin published Le Guide Rouge, a compendium of hotels and restaurant. A hundred years later, the Michelin Red Guide is still considered the world’s standard; its inspectors are anonymous and thus incorruptible, their opinions taken seriously. Even a single star award (out of three) can put an otherwise unknown restaurant on the map — literally.

Our Red Guide will comprise the following:

– “Hello, World”, a list of indispensable apps for the first time Android customer (or iPhone apostate), with tips, How-To guides, and FAQs.
– “Hot and Not”. Reviews of new apps and upgrades — and the occasional downgrade.
– “In Our Opinion”. This is the heart of the Guide, a catalogue of reviews written by a select group of Google Play staff who have hot line access to Google’s huge population of in-house subject matter experts. The reviews will be grouped into sections: Productivity, e-Learning, Games, Arts & Creativity, Communication, Food & Beverage, Healthcare, Spirituality, Travel, Entertainment, Civics & Philanthropy, Google Glass, with subcategories for each.

Our own involvement in reviewing Android apps is a novel — perhaps even a controversial — approach, but it’s much needed. We could have taken the easy path: Let users and third-parties provide the reviews. But third party motives are sometimes questionable, their resources quickly exhausted. And with the Android Store inventory rapidly approaching a million titles, our users deserve a trustworthy guide, a consistent voice to lead them to the app that fits.

We created the Red Guide because we care about our Android users, we want them to “play safe” and be productive, and we feel there’s no better judge of whether an application will degrade your phone’s performance or do what it claims than the people who created and maintain the Android framework. For developers, we’re now in a position to move from a jungle to a well-tended garden where the best work will be recognized, and the not-so-great creations will be encouraged to raise their game.

We spent a great deal of time at Google identifying exactly the right person to oversee this delicate proposition…and now we can reveal the real reason why Google’s Motorola division hired noted Macintosh evangelist, auteur, and investor Guy Kawasaki as an advisor: Guy will act as the Editor in Chief of the Google Play Red Guide.

With Guy at the helm, you can expect the same monkish dedication and unlimited resources we deployed when we created Google Maps.

As we welcome everyone to the Google Play Red Guide, we again thank Steve Jobs for his leadership and inspiration. Our algorithms tell us he would have approved.

The Red Guide is an open product and will be published on the Web at AppStoreRedguide.com as well as in e-book formats (iBookstore and Kindle formats pending approval) for open multi-platform enjoyment.
——– 

No need to belabor the obvious, you’ve already figured out that this is all a fiction. Google is no better than Apple when it comes to their mobile application store. Both companies let users and developers fend for themselves, lost in a thick forest of apps.

That neither company seems to care about their online stores’ customers makes no sense: Smartphone users download more apps than songs and videos combined, and the trend isn’t slowing. According to MobiThinking:

IDC predicts that global downloads will reach 76.9 billion in 2014 and will be worth US$35 billion.

Unfortunately, Apple appears to be resting on its laurels, basking in its great App Store numbers: 40 billion served, $8B paid to developers. Perhaps the reasoning goes like this: iTunes served the iPod well; the App Store can do the same for the iPhone. It ain’t broke; no fix needed.

But serving up music and movies — satisfying the user’s established taste with self-contained morsels of entertainment — is considerably different from leading the user to the right tool for a job that may be only vaguely defined.

Apple’s App Store numbers are impressive… but how would these numbers look like if someone else, Google for example, showed the kind of curation leadership Apple fails to assert?

JLG@mondaynote.com

image_pdfimage_print

iPad Pro: The Missing Workflow


 

The iPad started simple, one window at a time, putting it in the “media consumption” category as a result. Over time, such category proved too narrow, the iPad did well in some content creation activities. Can the new 128 GB iPad continue the trend and acquire better workflow capabilities?

Last week, without great fanfare, Apple announced a new 128 GB version of its fourth generation iPad, a configuration popularly known as the “iPad Pro“. The “Pro” monicker isn’t official, but you wouldn’t know that from Apple’s press release:

Companies regularly utilizing large amounts of data such as 3D CAD files, X-rays, film edits, music tracks, project blueprints, training videos and service manuals all benefit from having a greater choice of storage options for iPad. 

Cue the quotes from execs at seriously data storage-intense companies such as AutoCAD; WaveMachine Labs (audio software); and, quirkily, Global Aptitude, a company that makes film analysis software for football teams:

“The bottom line for our customers is winning football games, and iPad running our GamePlan solution unquestionably helps players be as prepared as possible,” said Randall Fusee, Global Apptitude Co-Founder. 

The naysayers grumble: Who needs this much memory on a “media tablet”? As Gizmodo put it:

The new iPad has the same retina display as its brothers, and the same design, and the same guts, with one notable exception: a metric crap-ton of storage. More storage than any decent or sane human being could ever want from a pure tablet…

(Increased storage is…indecent? This reminds me of the lambasting Apple received for putting 1 — one! — megabyte of memory in the 1986 Mac Plus. And we all recall Bill Gates’ assertion that 640 Kbytes ought to be enough for anyone. He now claims that the quote is apocryphal, but I have a different recollection.)

Or maybe this is simply Apple’s attempt to shore up the iPad’s average selling price ($467, down 18% from the year ago quarter), which took a hit following the introduction of the lower-priced iPad mini. (What? Apple is trying to make more money?)

The critics are right to be skeptical, but they’re questioning the wrong part of the equation.

When we compare iPad prices, the Pro is a bargain, at least by Apple standards:

The jump from 16GB to 32GB costs $100. Another doubling to 64GB costs the same $100. And, on February 5th, you’ll get an additional 64GB for yet another mere $100. (By comparison, extra solid state storage on a MacBook costs between $125 and $150 per 64GB.)

We get a bit more clarity when we consider the iPad’s place in Apple’s product line: As sales of the Mac slow down, the iPad Pro represents the future. Look at Dan Frommer’s analysis of 10 years of Mac sales. First, the Mac alone:

This leads Dan to ask if the Mac has peaked. Mac numbers for the most recent quarter  were disappointing. The newer iMacs were announced in October, with delivery dates in November and December for the 21.5″ and 27″ models respectively. But Apple missed the Xmas quarter window by about a million units, which cut revenue by as much as $1.5B and margin by half a billion or so (these are all very rough numbers). We’ll probably never find out how Apple’s well-oiled Supply Chain Management machine managed to strip a gear, but one can’t help wonder who will be exiled to Outer Mongolia Enterprise Sales.

Now consider another of Dan Frommer’s graphs:

This is units, not revenue. Mac and iPad ASPs are a 3 to 1 ratio but, still, this paints a picture of a slow-growth Mac vs. the galloping iPad.

The iPad — and tablets in general — are usurping the Mac/PC space. In the media consumption domain, the war is all but won. But when we take a closer look at the iPad “Pro”, we see that Apple’s tablet is far from realizing its “professional” potential.

This is where the critics have it wrong: Increased storage isn’t “insane”, it’s a necessary element…but it isn’t sufficient.

For example, can I compose this Monday Note on an iPad? Answering in the affirmative would be to commit the Third Lie of Computing: You Can Do It. (The first two are Of Course It’s Compatible and Chief, We’ll be in Golden Master by Monday.)

I do research on the Web and accumulate documents, such as Dan Frommer’s blog post mentioned above. On a PC or Mac, saving a Web page to Evernote for future reference takes a right click (or a two finger tap).

On an iPad, things get complicated. The Share button in Safari gives me two clumsy choices: I can mail the page to my Evernote account, or I can Copy the URL, launch Evernote, paste the URL, compose a title for the note I just created, and perhaps add a few tags.

Once I start writing, I want to look through the research material I’ve compiled. On a Mac, I simply open an Evernote window, side-by-side with my Pages document: select, drag, drop. I take some partial screenshots, annotate graphs (such as the iPad Pro prices above), convert images to the .png format used to put the Monday Note on the Web…

On the iPad, these tasks are complicated and cumbersome.

For starters — and to belabor the obvious — I can’t open multiple windows. iOS uses the “one thing at a time” model. I can’t select/drag/drop, I have to switch from Pages to Evernote or Safari, select and copy a quote, and then switch back to the document and paste.

Adding a hyperlink is even more tortuous and, at times, confusing. I can copy a link from Safari, switch back to Pages, paste…but I want to “slide” the link under a phrase. I consult Help, which suggests that I tap on the link, to no avail. If I want to attach a link to a phrase in my document, I have to hit the Space key after pasting, go to Settings and then enter the text that will “cover” the link — perfectly obvious.

This order of operations is intuitively backwards. On a Mac (or PC), I select the target text and then decide which link to paste under it.

Things get worse for graphics. On the iPad, I can’t take a partial screenshot. I can take a full screenshot by simultaneously pressing the Home and Sleep buttons, or I can tap on a picture in Safari and select Save. In both cases, the screenshot ends up in the Photos app where I can perform some amount of cropping and enhancing, followed by a Copy, then switch back to Pages and Paste into my opus.

Annotations? No known way. Control over the image file format? Same answer. There’s no iPad equivalent to the wonderful Preview app on the Mac. And while I’m at it, if I store a Preview document in iCloud, how do I see it from my iPad?

This gets us into the more general — and “professional” — topic of assembling a trove of parts that can be assembled into a “rich” document, such as a Keynote presentation. On a personal computer, there are plenty of choices. With the iPad, Apple doesn’t provide a solution, there’s no general document repository, no iCloud analog to Dropbox or Microsoft’s Skydrive, both of which are simple to use, quasi-free and, in my experience, quite reliable. (One wonders: Is the absence of a Dropbox-like general documents folder in iCloud a matter of technology or theology?)

Simply throwing storage at the problem is, clearly, not enough to make the iPad a “Pro” device.  But there is good news. Some of it is anecdotal, such as the more sophisticated editing provided by the iPad version of iPhoto. The better news is that iOS is a mature, stable operating system that takes advantage of fast and spacious hardware.

But the best news is that Apple has, finally, some competition when it comes to User Experience. For example, tablets that run Microsoft or Google software let users slide the current window to show portions of another one below, making it easier to select parts of a document and drop them into another. (Come to think of it, the sliding Notifications “drawer” on the iPad and iPhone isn’t too far off.)

This competition might spur Apple to move the already very successful iPad into authentically “Pro” territory.

The more complex the task, the more our beloved 30-year-old personal computer is up to it. But there is now room above the enforced simplicity that made the iPad’s success for UI changes allowing a modicum of real-world “Pro” workflow on iPads.

JLG@mondaynote.com

image_pdfimage_print