In today’s context of massive revenue depletion, everyone (almost) agrees on one thing: digital media revenue sources will have to be diversified. There is no magic bullet, no dominant model that will guarantee, by itself, a sustainable revenue stream. Time to think the hybrid way. Free will coexist with paid-for, different users (occasional vs. intensive) will be discreetly assigned different revenue models, platforms will diversify as technical standards for publishing or transactions emerge, opening new fields for monetization. Old churches and ideologies will crumble.
The biggest stimulus for such creativity is the collapse of the internet advertising model. On average, CPM (cost per thousand viewers) have dropped by 30% – 40% during the last twelve months and very few expect a recovery. As far as booking rates are concerned, they are dropping as well. It is frequent to see only a mere 30% of pages inventories actually sold to advertisers. Unlike prices, this latter percentage is likely to bounce back at the first sign of economic relief.
But the classical advertising model’s weakness is more structural. The “old” banners / display stuff doesn’t fly as expected. People simply don’t click enough on those items and even sophisticated targeting yields minor relief. The only “healthy” segment is search ads, but it is dominated by the Google Way — a massively deflationary one. Successful medias will be the ones who manage to shake off the old cobwebs and proceed to rethink their relationship with the advertising sphere. It will be fairly easy for social or non-hard news sites, but true information content vehicles are likely to struggle with ethical issues…
As far as platforms are concerned, last week, we looked at smartphones: they’re on their way to become the main vector for news, whether it is for text or video. Numbers looks good: last year, according to IDC, on the 1.19 billion mobile phones sold worldwide 155 million (13%) where smartphones. In 2013, says IDC, 1.4 billion handsets will be sold, among them 280 million (20%) smartphones. And if anyone harbored any doubt regarding the ecosystem’s health, just consider the 65,000 applications available for the iPhone and the state of the competition. As explained in this Fortune magazine story, the sector is red-hot: since the iPhone introduction in june 2007, Blackberry quarterly sales have more than tripled. Even Google joined the fray with Android phones — and following a trajectory than will put the search engine to a collision course with Apple (see Jean-Louis’s column War in the Valley; Apple vs. Google).
Coming back to the title of today’s column, let’s talk about paper, the pulp, dead tree version. I can see many reasons why some sort of paper version can help. More