asymco

Apple Car: Three More Thoughts

 

by Jean-Louis Gassée

[Update appended]
Beside free publicity, and huge amounts of it, the putative Apple Car raises interesting questions about car manufacturing, the future of automobiles, and the part that an interloper such as Apple could play in this century-old industry. 

The volume of comments and Twitter traffic in reaction to last week’s Monday Note, The Fantastic Apple Car, was just one small rivulet in this week’s gusher of rumors, jokes, and proclamations about Apple becoming a car manufacturer. Bloomberg takes the car as fait accompli, telling us that “Apple…is pushing its team to begin production of an electric vehicle as early as 2020”. A recent 9to5mac post provides a long list of car experts and executives hired by Apple, thus giving more than gossipy credence to the story of Apple committing huge resources to such a project.

There are many products and services I’d love to see Apple get into. For example, how could Apple not do a better job than Comcast, Verizon, and AT&T at providing wired and wireless broadband? But the Cupertino company stays out of that arena for a number of reasons: regulations, fragmentation, manpower, equipment both under and above ground.

One could argue that cars present a simpler challenge. Roads are roads and country regulations are well understood. And, yes, a car made and serviced by Apple could be an affordable quality product.

Still, I remain a skeptic. Monday Note commenter Hamranhansenhansen does a good job of summarizing my position:

“[…] if Apple were doing a car, why not just buy Tesla in the exact same way they bought Beats? Apple already made headphones for about 14 years and then bought Beats anyway. Tesla is the Beats of cars, and it is local to Apple and already has a factory and really great mindshare. If they did not want Elon Musk, he has SpaceX and could likely make a graceful exit. Apple’s car line would then be named “Tesla” same as their PC’s are named “Mac” and headphones named “Beats.” The price of Tesla right now is excellent, especially considering the battery crossover to iPhones and iPads.
It makes much more sense to me that Apple is going to become a car component manufacturer, so that BMW, Bentley, Ferrari, etc. can buy Tesla-style in-car dash systems from Apple, just as Ford bought the awful Sync from Microsoft. The itch that needs to be scratched is Jony Ive getting into his Bentley and his iPhone won’t hook up reliably and sits in a bolt-on cradle.

This week, I’ll add three vignettes, three morsels of food for thought about the hotly desired AppleCar.

For more than twenty years, two Apple execs roamed the Earth in search of technologies, suppliers, contractors, and entrepreneurs to acquihire. In their travels, they fortified themselves at many of the best restaurants on the planet, becoming friends, or so they thought, with the astute chefs, sommeliers, and maîtres d’hôtel.

Impressed by their own accumulated knowledge of the restaurant industry the two decided to parlay the money and ambition they had been soaking in at Apple and open a high-concept, high-end saloon. They spared no expense on location, decoration, wine cellar, state-of-the-art kitchen, big name chef, experienced front-of-the-house staff and, of course, a publicist.

After two miserable years of quarrels with prime donne, theft and drug use by the staff, bad reviews planted by rivals, and calamitous “surprise” food inspections, our two wannabe restaurateurs closed their dream place, millions of dollars gone to waste.

They got confused. After all the years they spent in the best restaurants in the world, they thought they knew the restaurant business. What they did know was how to be great patrons… how to talk wine with the sommelier, when to compliment the chef, how to respectfully send back a dish that isn’t just so. They were customers, not restaurateurs.

You know where I’m going with this: Some Apple execs are great car connoisseurs — one senior VP is even on the Board of Directors of Ferrari. They have the resources to own and operate, on roads and tracks, many of the choicest automobiles on the planet, but that doesn’t automatically give them the knowledge to be manufacturers.

The second vignette takes me back a few decades to Northern Italy. During my years at Apple, I took an Industrial Design team to pay a visit to Giorgetto Giugiaro, a towering figure in the automobile industry who would later be recognized as one of the Car Designers of the Century. (Both Wikipedia articles just linked to make for terrific reading – if you’re into cars.) Our goal, in visiting Giugiaro, was to find fresh inspiration, new stanzas for our design language. I had long admired not only the aesthetics of the cars Giugiaro had designed, but also their practicality and efficiency. The historic success of his work on the Volkswagen Golf re-started the company and put it on a trajectory to one day challenge Toyota.

When we walked into Giugiaro’s Italdesign offices, a surprise awaited us. When I thought of Industrial Design — Esthétique Industrielle in French — aesthetics first came to mind, industry second. But what Giugiaro showed us was the opposite: The industrial side of his practice was, for him, truly foremost. In his own words, his job wasn’t to design an award-winning shape for a car, his job was to design the process, the factory that would eventually excrete a continuous flow of vehicles.

An example from Giugiaro’s portfolio: The Renault 19. At a time when the French manufacturer saw a hole in its product line, Giugiaro raided the corporate parts bank, designed a production line, installed it, and trained the production technicians.

More than 25 years later, the conversation is still with me: One doesn’t design a car, one designs the machine, the process, the supply ecosystem that produces the vehicle. As Horace Dediu puts it, innovations are in the production system:

(Beside his Asymco blog and @asymco Twitter stream, Horace also produces Asymcar, a podcast series dedicated to the auto industry.)

I would love to be wrong about the AppleCar — I join the choristers who would love to see what Apple could do with a car — but we’ve heard a bit too much about Apple’s ability to design an interesting electric vehicle and not enough about the industrial part, about the machine that makes the machines.

Finally, there’s Carlos Ghosn. (Again, you won’t regret reading the Wikipedia article.)
How do you compete with this man?
The Brazilian born Ghosn spent his early school years in Lebanon, attended the prestigious École Polytechnique in Paris, and started his automotive career at Michelin, the very techie and idiosyncratic tire maker. After rising to CEO of Michelin North America, Ghosn was recruited by the ailing Renault, and Ghosn managed to turn two companies around by creating a global alliance with Nissan. He’s now the CEO of both companies – and a hero in Japan, featured in manga (a comic strip genre). He speaks Portuguese, Arabic, French, English and some Japanese.

As CEO of Renault-Nissan, Ghosn was instrumental in the creation of the best selling electric car on the market today, the Nissan Leaf (another interesting Wikipedia read). With 158,000 units sold, representing about $6B, the Leaf is a well-rounded implementation of an affordable “pure” electric car (as opposed to hybrids such as the Toyota Prius, or the Chevy Volt, or BMW i3 and i8 that are assisted by small accessory gasoline engines).

I don’t know which fine cars Ghosn drives for pleasure, but he certainly knows how to make the machines that create them. If Apple wants to make and sell electric cars in numbers large enough to garner revenue in multiples of 10 billion — the unit of currency for Apple in 2020 — they’ll first have to figure out how to beat Carlos Ghosn at his game.

JLG@mondaynote.com

Update
Tim Bradshaw, the author of the Financial Times article referred to above, points out his story came out before the Wall Street Journal piece and resents the “rewrite” label for his work.
I regret the error.
What led me astray is this, on FT.com, with a Saturday Feb 14 date:
“The Wall Street Journal reported on Friday that Mr Zadesky’s team was overseeing a project code-named Titan that had produced an initial design for a vehicle resembling a minivan.”
And that’s why I thought the WSJ (Fri 2/13) got there first.
It looks like the Feb 14th date was the stamp for the latest update to the article, not the 1st publication date that appears to have beaten the WSJ by “several hours” according to Arash Massoudi, one of Tim’s colleagues at the FT.”

News: Mobile Trends to Keep In Mind

 

For publishers, developing an all-out mobile strategy has become both more necessary and more challenging. Today, we look at key data points and trends for such a task. 

#1 The Global Picture
— 1.7bn mobile phones (feature phones and smartphones) were sold in 2012 alone
— 3.2bn people use a mobile phone worldwide
— Smartphones gain quickly as phones are replaced every 18 to 24 months
— PCs are completely left in the dust as shown in this slide from Benedict Evans’ excellent Mobile is Eating the World presentation:

ben-evans

The yellow line has two main components:
— 1 billion Android smartphones are said to be in operation worldwide (source: Google)
— 700 million iOS devices have been sold over time, with 500 million still in use, which corresponds to the number of iTunes accounts (source: Asymco, one of the best references for the mobile market.)
— 450 million Symbian-based feature phones are in operation (Asymco.)

#2 The Social Picture 

Mobile phone usage for news consumption gets increasingly tied to social networks. Here are some key numbers :
— Facebook: about 1.19bn users; we don’t exactly know how many are active
— Twitter: 232 million users
— LinkedIn: 259 million users

When it comes to news consumption in a social environment, these three channels have different contributions. This chart, drawn from a Pew Research report, shows the penetration of different social networks and the proportion of the US population who get their news from it.

300_pew

One of the most notable data points in the Pew Report is the concentration of sources for social news:
— 65% say to get their news from one social site
— 26% from two sites
— 9% from three sources or more (such as Google +, LinkedIn)

But, as the same time, these sources are completely intertwined. Again, based on the Pew survey, Twitter appears to be the best distributor of news.

Among those who get their news from Twitter:
— 71% also get their news on Facebook
— 27% on YouTube
— 14% on Google+
— 7% on LinkedIn

Put another way, Facebook collects more than half of the adult population’s news consumption on social networks.

But a closer looks at demographics slightly alters the picture because all social networks are not equal when it comes to education and income segmentation:

If you want to reach the Bachelor+ segment, you will get:
— 64% of them on LinkedIn
— 40% on Twitter
but…
— only 30% on Facebook
— 26% on G+
— 23% on YouTube

And if you target the highest income segment (more than $75K per year), you will again favor LinkedIn that collects 63% of news consumers in this slice, more than Facebook (41%)

Coming back to the mobile strategy issue, despite Facebook’s huge adoption, Twitter appears to be the best bet for news content. According to another Pew survey, the Twitter user is more mobile :

Mobile devices are a key point of access for these Twitter news consumers. The vast majority, 85%, get news (of any kind) at least sometimes on mobile devices. That outpaces Facebook news consumers by 20 percentage points; 64% of Facebook news consumers use mobile devices for news. The same is true of 40% of all U.S. adults overall. Twitter news consumers stand out for being younger and more educated than both the population overall and Facebook news consumers

 And, as we saw earlier, Twitter redistributes extremely well on other social platforms. It’s a no brainer: any mobile site or app should carry a set of hashtags, whether it’s a stream of information produced by the brand or prominent bylines known for their insights.

 #3 The Time Spent Picture

Here is why news is so complicated to handle in mobile environments. According to Flurry Analytics: On the 2 hours and 38 minutes spent each day on a smartphone and an a tablet by an American user, news accounts for 2% as measured in app consumption, which accounts for 80% of time spent. The remaining 20% is spent in a browser where we can assume the share of the news to be much higher. But even in the most optimistic hypothesis, news consumption on a mobile device amounts to around 5 to 6% of time spent (this is correlated by other sources such as Nielsen). Note that this proportion seems to decrease as, in May 2011, Flurry Analytics stated news in the apps ecosystems accounted for 9% of time spent.

This view is actually consistent with broader pictures of digital news consumption, such as these two provided by Nielsen, which show that while users spend 50 minutes per month on CNN (thanks to is broad appeal and to its video content), they only spend 18 minutes on the NYT and a mere 8 minutes on the Washington Post:

300 nielsen

All of the above compares to 6hrs 42min spent on Facebook, 2hrs on YouTube or Yahoo sites.

In actionable terms, this shows the importance of having smartphones apps (or mobile web sites) sharply aimed at providing news in the most compact and digestible way. The “need to know” focus is therefore essential in mobile because catching eyeballs and attention has become increasingly challenging. That’s why The New York Times is expected to launch a compact version of its mobile app (currently dubbed N2K, Need to Know, precisely), aimed at the market’s youngest segment and most likely priced just below $10 a month. (The Times also does it because the growth of digital subscriptions aimed at the upper market is slowing down.) At the other end of the spectrum, the NYT is also said to work on digital magazine for iPad, featuring rich multimedia-narrative on (very) long form such the Pulitzer winning Snow Fall (on that matter, the Nieman analysis is worth a read).

This also explains why the most astute digital publishers go for newsletters designed for mobile that are carefully – and wittily – edited by humans. (One example is the Quartz Daily Brief; it’s anecdotal but everyone I recommended this newsletter to now reads it on a daily basis.) I personally no longer believe in automated newsletters that repackage web site headlines, regardless of their quality. On smartphones, fairly sophisticated users (read: educated and affluent) sought by large media demand time-saving services, to the point content, neatly organized in an elegant visual, and — that’s a complicated subject — tailored to their needs way.

#4 The ARPU View

On mobile devices, the Average Revenue per User should be a critical component when shaping a mobile strategy. First, let’s settle the tablet market question. Even though the so-called “cheap Android” segment  ($100-150 for a plastic device running an older version of Android) thrive in emerging markets, when it comes to extracting significant money from users, the iPad runs the show. It accounts for 80% of the tablet web traffic in the US, UK, Germany, France, Japan, and even China (source: Adobe.)

The smartphone is more complicated. A year ago, many studies made by AppAnnie or Flurry Analytics showed that the iPhone ecosystem brought four times more revenue than Android. More recently, Flurry Analytics ran a story stating that the average app price for Android was $0.06 vs. $0.19 for the iPhone and $0.50 for the iPad.

The gap is closing as Android terminals attracts a growing number of affluent users. Still, compared to iOS, it is notoriously difficult to carry paid-for apps and services in the Android ecosystem, and Android ads remains cheaper. It’s likely to remain the case for quite a while as iOS devices are likely to remain much more expensive than Android ones, and therefore more able to attract high-end demographics and the ads that go to them.

How this impacts a smartphone strategy: Publishers might consider different business models for the two main ecosystems. They could go for fairly sophisticated apps in the iOS world, served  by a well-oiled payment system allowing many flavors of In-App add-ons. By contrast, the Android environment favors a more “go-for-volume” approach; but things could evolve quickly as the Android share of high-end audience grows and as the PlayStore gains in sophistication and gets as friction-free as the AppStore.

frederic.filloux@mondaynote.com