iwatch

Apple Watch Is And Isn’t…

 

The Apple Watch isn’t just another iDevice, a “wearables” accessory to the Apple ecosystem. It’s a bold attempt to create a new kind of wrist-worn personal computer that looks like a smartwatch.

In previous Monday Notes dealing with the putative iWatch and other “wearables”, I thought the new product would be a nice add-on to the iDevices ecosystem — a bit player that would make the iPhone more desirable —  but that it wouldn’t move the needle, meaning $10B or more in revenue. I reasoned that a watch battery would be too small to feed a computer powerful enough to offer a wide range of apps and communications capabilities.

I was wrong.

In his demonstration (76 minutes into the official video) at the Cupertino Flint Center last Tuesday, Kevin Lynch, the Adobe defector who now runs the Apple Watch software engineering effort, showed us that the Watch isn’t just a shrunk-down iPhone: It can stand on its own, it has introduced an entire new genre of user interface, and will have its own App Store. The reinterpreted watch crown, a side button, touch and pressure on the face, plus voice all combine to a potentially rich and unique set of ways to interact with this newest very personal computer.

As Horace Dediu, our disruption scholar, puts it:

“The Apple Watch is as much a Watch as the iPhone is a Phone.”

The almost overwhelming richness of the user interface and of demonstrated apps led one twitterer to express a concern I can’t suppress:

Dr. Drang Apple Software Army

Will the software overwhelm the hardware, resulting in problematic battery-life, or befuddle normal humans?

Indeed, I remember how I worried when Steve Jobs first demonstrated the iPhone on January 9th, 2007 and stated it ran OS X. Knowing Jobs’ occasionally robust relationship with facts, I feared embarrassment down the road. But, no. When the iPhone shipped almost six months later, on June 29th, hackers immediately dissected it and discovered it ran a bona fide pared-down version of OS X — later renamed iOS.

As with the original iPhone, we might be six months away from a shipping product, time for Apple to fine-tune its software and work on the S1 SoC (System on a Chip) that drives the watch… and to put in place the supply chain and retail operations for the many Apple Watch variations.

In the meantime, some choice morsels of context will help as we consider the impact of Apple’s new Watch. We’ll start with Marc Newson, the famed designer (and Jony Ive’s friend and collaborator)  who just joined Apple. If you haven’t done so already, take a look at this video where Newson flips through his portfolio of watch and clock designs, including this striking reinterpretation of a great classic, the Atmos Clock from Jaeger-LeCoultre:

Newson Atmos

(The pages that Newson surveys in the video are taken from a book published by Taschen, the noted publisher of lovingly designed art books.)

For more context, follow this link supplied by Kontra (a.k.a. @counternotions) and regard the sea of watch designs from Newson’s Ikepod days, a company Newson left in 2012.

Newson Ikepod Manatee

Turning to the Apple Watch mega-site, we see a family resemblance:

Apple Watches

Professional watchmakers and industry executives seem to appreciate Newson’s influence and Apple’s efforts, although they are quick to point out that they don’t think the Apple Watch is a threat to their high-end wares (“It’s a techno-toy more than a watch, but what a fun toy,” says Laurent Picciotto of Chronopassion Paris).  Watches by SJX provides a quick collation of What The Watch Industry Thinks Of The Apple Watch. Swiss watchmaker Eric Giroud voices the majority opinion:

“It’s a nice product; good shape and amazing bracelet – thank you Marc Newson for the resurrection of the Ikepod strap. It’s difficult to speak about its impact on watchmaking because the Apple Watch is not a watch except that it is also worn on the wrist.”

Benjamin Clymer is the editor of Hodinkee, an on-line magazine dedicated to the world of watches. In a post titled A Watch Guy’s Thoughts On The Apple Watch, Clymer provides a review that’s informed by a deep personal knowledge of the watch scene. If you don’t have time to read the whole article — it’s a long piece — the author provides a good summary in the introduction [emphasis mine]:

[…] though I do not believe it poses any threat to haute horology manufactures, I do think the Apple Watch will be a big problem for low-priced quartz watches, and even some entry-level mechanical watches. In years to come, it could pose a larger threat to higher end brands, too. The reason? Apple got more details right on their watch than the vast majority of Swiss and Asian brands do with similarly priced watches, and those details add up to a really impressive piece of design. It offers so much more functionality than other digitals it’s almost embarrassing. But it’s not perfect, by any means.

Not everyone in the watch industry is so impressed. In an article titled Apple Watch ‘too feminine and looks like it was designed by students’, says LVMH executive, The Telegraph provides the money quote [emphasis mine]:

“To be totally honest, it looks like it was designed by a student in their first trimester,” added Mr Biver, who heads up the brands Tag Heuer, Zenith and Hublot.

The article evoked general hilarity and prompted more than one commenter to dig up the infelicitous Ed Colligan quote about the iPhone:

“PC guys are not going to just figure this out. They’re not going to just walk in.”

I’ll offer a rewrite for Jean-Claude Biver and his haute horlogerie colleagues:

“We like Apple products, they provide productivity and fun in our daily lives; we respect the sense of design Sir Jony and now Marc Newson bring to the company. I wish I could say more but, try as I might, I couldn’t get the livestream of Mr. Cook’s presentation to work in my Rue de Rive office in Geneva. First, there was this Mandarin dubbing, I can understand why but it was really annoying. Then, the transmission kept breaking down. I imagine that the tons of concrete now being poured for Apple’s next headquarters will provide a suitable resting place for the individual in charge.
Again, congratulations on a well-executed global launch.”

More seriously, let’s put streaming glitches glitches aside, they won’t matter in the longer run because they don’t concern the product itself. Last week’s launch, its detailed preparations, including the no-longer mysterious white building, attest to the gravity of Apple’s long-term ambition.

As additional evidence that the Apple Watch isn’t just a hobby, recall that the iPhone was initially offered in one size and one color. By comparison, the Apple Watch is an explosion: It comes in three styles and two sizes (in millimeters, 38 and 42, because that’s the trade vocabulary), two material/finishes for each style (silver and space gray, yellow or rose gold), nine bands for the basic Apple Watch, six for the Apple Watch Sport, and at least four for the gold Apple Watch Edition — and all with matching crown buttons.  Henry Ford has definitely left the building.

The fact that Apple invited fashion editors to Cupertino (some of whom had to be told where that town is) is another Think Different sign. Nerds are still welcome, but this is a new game. Again, turn to the Apple Watch site and look at the bands/bracelets. As Ben Clymer notes in his piece, the level of detail tells us this isn’t just another iDevice.

Stepping back a little, when I see the team of watch industry execs, design luminaries, and fashion experts Apple has brought on board, I have a hard time believing that Apple is going to stop at watches. At the very least, will Mssrs. Ive and Newson bring livelier, more varied designs to the iPhone? And what does Tim Cook mean when he slyly alludes to products that “haven’t even been rumored yet…”?

But let’s not get ahead of ourselves — we’re still barely past the demo. We’ll have to wait for the actual product to come to the wrists of real users. Only then will we have the Apple Watch make-or-break moment: Word-of-mouth from non-experts.

And, still in the not getting ahead of ourselves department, for Apple, today’s make-or-break product is the iPhone 6. The Apple Watch makes great “ink” and iPhones make the money.

JLG@mondaynote.com

iWatch Thoughts

 

Unlike the almost forgotten Apple TV set, there might be a real product in the iWatch. But as rumors about the device intensify, the scuttlebutt conveniently skirts key questions about the product’s role.

As reverberations of Apple’s Developer Conference begin to die down, the ever-dependable iWatch has offered itself as the focus of another salvo of rumors and speculation. Actually, there’s just one rumor — a Reuters “report” that Quanta Computer will begin manufacturing the iWatch in July — but it was enough to launch a quick-fire series of echoes that bounced around the blogosphere. Not to be outdone, the Wall Street Journal added its own tidbits:

“Apple is planning multiple versions of a smartwatch…[that] will include more than 10 sensors to track and monitor health and fitness data, these people said.”

(“These people” are, of course, the all-knowing “people familiar with the matter”.)

The iWatch hubbub could be nothing more than a sort of seasonal virus, but this time there’s a difference.

At the WWDC three weeks ago, Apple previewed HealthKit, a toolkit iOS developers can use to build health and fitness related applications. HealthKit is a component of the iOS 8 release that Apple plans to ship this fall in conjunction with the newest iDevices. As an example of what developers will be able to do with HealthKit, Apple previewed Health, an application that gives you “an easy-to-read dashboard of your health and fitness data.”

The rumor that Quanta will soon begin “mass production” of the iWatch — the perfect vehicle for health-and-fitness apps — just became a bit more tantalizing… but there are still a number of questions that are left unanswered.

Foremost is iWatch “independence”. How useful will it be when it’s running on its own, unconnected to a smartphone, tablet, or conventional PC? My own guess: Not very useful. Unless Apple plans to build a monstrosity of a device (not likely), the form factor of our putative iWatch will dictate a small battery, which means the processor will have to be power-conserving and thus unable to run iPhone-caliber apps. Power conservation is particularly important if Apple wants to avoid jibes of the ‘My iWatch ran out of battery at the end of the day’ type. Such occurrences, already annoying with a smartphone, could be bad publicity for a “health and fitness” watch.

So, let’s settle for a “mostly dependent” device that relies on a more robust sibling for storage, analysis, and broad overview.

That raises another question: Will the iWatch be part of Apple’s ecosystem only, or will it play nice with Windows PCs or even Android smartphones? If we take Apple’s continued tolerance of the Android version of Beats Music (at least so far) as an example, the notion of an Apple device communicating with a member of the Android tribe is less heretical than it once was. Again, my own guess: Initially, the iWatch will be of restricted to the Apple ecosystem. We’ll see what happens if the device catches on and there’s a demand for an “non-denominational” connection.

As for what role the iWatch will play in the ecosystem, those of us ancient enough might recall the example set by the Smart Personal Objects Technology (SPOT) that Microsoft launched a decade ago. No need to repeat that bit of doomed history by targeting too many platforms, by trying to make “Smart Objects” omniscient. Instead, Apple is likely, as it insisted at its early June WWDC, to tout its Continuity ethos: Let each device do what it does best, but don’t impede the flow of information and activities between devices. In plainer English: Hybrid devices are inferior.

So, besides telling time (perhaps in Yosemite’s new system font, a derivative of Helvetica Neue) what exactly will the iWatch do? The first part of the answer is easy: It will use its sensors to collect data of interest. We’ve already seen what the M7 motion processor and related apps can do in an iPhone 5S; now imagine data that has much finer granularity, and sensors that can measure additional dimensions, such as altitude.

Things quickly get more complicated when we turn to the “other side of the skin”. Heart rhythm and blood pressure measurements look banal, but they shouldn’t be taken for granted, especially if one wants medically reliable data. Oxymetry, the measurement of your oxygen saturation, looks simple — you just slide a cap onto your fingertip — but that cap is actually transmitting lightwaves through your finger. A smartwatch can’t help the nearly 18 million US citizens who suffer from Type II Diabetes (a.k.a Adult Onset Diabetes)  because there are no non-invasive methods for measuring blood sugar. And even as the technical complications of collecting health data are surmounted, device makers can find themselves skirting privacy issues and infringing the HIPAA charter.

The iWatch will also act as a receiver of data from a smartphone, tablet, or PC. This poses many fewer problems, both technical and ethical, than health monitoring, but it also offers few opportunities. Message notifications and calendar alerts are nice but they don’t create a new category, and they certainly haven’t “moved the needle” for existing smartwatches. In a related vein, one can imagine bringing the iWatch close to one’s face and speaking to Siri, asking to set up a calendar event, or sending a text message… but, as with the trend towards larger smartphone screens, one must exercise care when fantasizing about iWatch use cases.

Then we have the question of developers and applications — where’s the support for iWatch app creators? When the iOS App Store opened in 2008, the iPhone became an app phone and solidified the now universal genre. What iWatch rumors fail to address is the presence or absence of an iWatch SDK, of iWatch apps, and of a dedicated App Store section.

Meanwhile, Google has already announced its Android Wear platform and has opened a “Developer Preview” program. Conventional wisdom has it that the Google I/O convention next week will focus on wearables. Samsung has been actively fine-tuning and updating the software for its line of Galaxy Gear smart watches (the watches originally ran on an Android derivative but now use Tizen – until next week).

Finally, we have the question of whether an iWatch will sell in numbers that make the endeavor worthwhile. As the previously-mentioned WSJ story underlines, the smartwatch genre has had a difficult start:

“[...] it isn’t clear how much consumers want the devices. Those on the market so far haven’t sold well, because most wearable devices only offer a limited set of features already found on a smartphone.”

The most ambitious rumors project 50 million iWatches sold in the first 12 months. I think that’s an unrealistic estimate, but if a $300 iWatch can sell at these numbers, that’s $15B for the year. This seems like a huge number until you compare it to a conservative estimate for the iPhone:  50 million iPhones at $650 generates $32B per quarter.

Taking a more hopeful view, let’s recall the history of the iPad. It was a late entrant in the tablet field but it coalesced and redefined the genre. Perhaps the the iWatch will establish itself as The Smartwatch Done Right. But even if it succeeds in this category-defining role, it won’t have the power and flexibility or the huge number of apps of a true trouser pocket computer. As a result, the iWatch will be part of the supporting cast, not a first order product like the iPhone. There’s nothing wrong with that — it might help make high-margin iPhones even more attractive — but it won’t sell in numbers, dollar volume, or profit comparable to the iPhone or iPad. The iWatch, if and when announced, might be The Next Big Thing – for the few weeks of a gargantuan media feast. But it won’t redefine an industry the way PCs, smartphones and tablets did.

JLG@mondaynote.com